Thema: Guardian.. chat room today by"Ibawty" 07.24 am 29 Jan at least entertaining... if not more!




First I think you've all been a tad hard on caesius who, as he said in response to my posting, was only expressing his views. I enjoy a good bun fight as much as the rest, but keep it clean boys, keep it clean. Incidently, does anyone have the url for the 'Watch with Mother' message thread, I'm feeling nostalgic today.

I was born in the US (NY) and still have family ties over there so the issue is important to me. Also, living in England whose fortunes to a large extent are tied with the US (where are those damn scissors when you need them) and as a private investor - not Enron-ron or Hans Christian Andersen thank the gods - who knows only too well that the FTSE faithfully tracks the NYSE, the trials and tribulations of the country are of more than passing interest to me financially.

Now call me Nostradamus or call me clinically insane but I can see the probable fall of the US written in the stars, and I see the Bush presidency as a watershed in the process. All the seeds are there.

Corruption and corporate interest has been fully integrated into the US political system and quite honestly, I don't think you can now remove the corruption without killing the system with it. It's not a Republican thing or a Democrat thing, it's an America thing.

Many of the historical factors which saw the US rise to it's current emminence are now no longer with us - two world wars really crippled the rest of the world while the US remained unscathed and ready to dominate - the Cold War increased European reliance on the US - but this is lost on it's citizens who truly believe that all the pursuant goodies showered on them over the last fifty odd years are entirely the result of the superiority of the American dream USA-USA-BOO-YA! This is not a criticism of the route the US took to become a superpower, the world would have been rubber ducked without the US at the time, but a criticism of the US inability to recognize that the boost was a temporary opportunity to be used and forgotten when used up, and not the permanent status conferred on each US citizen like a mantle for ever more.

The arrogance of the current administration is breathtaking in it's scope and the rest of the world is not very impressed. The Kyoto accord was summarily dismissed as not being in US interests with no heed payed to the needs of others or of the rest of the planet. The silly missile defence system has caused immense friction, and it's here that the true character of geedumbya and his assorted puppet masters is shown in it's true light. Geedumbya actually believed that the objections were down to the rest of the world not being bright enough to understand, and all that was needed was for the US to explain it veeery sloooowly to them. Laugh, I almost wet myself. As for the 'War On Terror', it's bizarre. Removing the terrorists from Afghanistan by force was the right thing to do. Breaking up terrorist infrastructure and support world wide is absolutely essential. So, why has it all started to backfire? Because of arrogance pure and simple. Build up a coalition and then take every opportunity to let them know they're only there for decoration, way to go Uncle Sam. Do the hard and necessary work of capturing the terrorists responsible for a whole series of atrocities and then palpably demonstrate that you didn't give a toss about justice infinite or otherwise, you just wanted to stick it to them good in revenge, and the rest of the coalition (requested by you) is a bunch of liberal pinkoes if they dare to suggest you follow the Geneva Convention you signed up to. Hey Rumsfeld, if echelon is picking this one up, the reason your chiding and assurances don't cut it in the rest of the world is that the rest of the world doesn't trust you, has no confidence in you, checks their collective wallet every time they come into contact with you.

The economy is looking a bit crap. The Enron scandal could completely wipe out confidence in the US economy and it doesn't really matter whether Enron is now largely swept under the carpet (my money on that option) or whether it's dealt with as seriously as it should.

And while the US is treading water and trying to plug the leaks in it's water wings the rest of the world is swimming past. All the advantages which made America great are being eroded away. The US dollar will soon find that it's not what it used to be and that the younger and fitter Euro will eat it alive when it matures. Other economies will search out US corporate weakness and as is the way of things be merciless. The Chinese are coming, not in uniform but in business suits. If I read geedumbya right, his visceral response - the only response type he has - will be protectionism which only ever puts off the inevitable in a global market and a lopsided version of the New Deal. Perhaps if geedumbya 'splained it to me veeery slooowly I might see it working, but I don't think so.

The US won't dissapear or descend into savagery or anything. It'll do a Russia and it'll do it within the next quarter century or so. That's my bet.

Anyhoo, waffled enough for one lifetime and I'll finish with a cheery message for the USA-USA-BOOYA types who no doubt see not a word of truth in what I said. Remember Japan? You know, the country which in the seventies could produce everything faster, better, higher quality, cheaper and smaller than anyone else, the country which decimated industry in many countries, the country no-one could compete against? Well, the strengths which allowed this to happen are now dire weaknesses which are so entrenched in the Japanese mindset that reform is proving almost impossible. The banking system which was so brill in the seventies is seen as a dinosaur waiting for it's asteroid, the employer-employee loyalty system is a royal pain in the butt and unemployment is at record levels.

The rise and fall happened in well under fifty years.


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