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<ul> ~ http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_chart.asp?sym=us@CL.1</ul>
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... den nächsten genommen.

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Hallo black elk

Da scheinen wohl einige Marktteilnehmer ans Schwitzen zu kommen.

Dabei ist aus fundamentaler Sicht die Rohölversorgungslage entspannt.

Ausreichende Rohöl- und Produktverfügbarkeiten, Maintainancearbeiten in einigen US Raffinerie, schlechte Raffineriemargen in den USA und NWE (tendieren aufgrund der festeren Notierungen der letzten 2-3 Tage bis in den null Bereich, Sorge dass die Ã-lförderländer ihre zugesagten Förderquoten nicht einhalten würden. Man rechnet mit Beginn des Frühjahrs wieder mit verstärkten Ã-llieferungen aus Russland. Also kein Grund für steigende Notierungen - es sei denn die Kriegskarte wird gespielt.

Aber was soll's - WTI und Brent sind auf über 20,00 $/b gestiegen. Starke Preisanstiege haben auch HU und HO absolviert.

Es könnte zumindest aus technischer Sicht noch etwas weiter aufwärts gehen.

Achtung - nur bei einem Rückgang unterhalb von 20,00 $/b sollte man wachsam sein.

Mitte Februar laufen die März Kontrakte füe WTI und Brent aus.

Es kann sein, dass von einigen Marktteilnehmern ein short squeeze gespielt wird.


Aus technischer Sicht kann sich der Rohölpreis durchaus noch weiter festigen.

Man beachte aber, dass sich die Preisstrukturen für Rohöl- und Produktnotierungen noch immer in einem contango befinden.

Demnächst werden wir sicher Erklärungen aus dem Markt erhalten, warum die Rohöl- und Produktenpreise gestiegen sind. Also warten wir mal ab.


Good luck bei den Rohöltrades


Gruss

K C

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Crude Oil Falls on Expectations of Increase in U.S. Inventories
By Mark Shenk


New York, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than 3 percent on expectations that an industry report would show a sixth weekly increase in U.S. inventories, as refineries used less of the fuel because of weak demand for products such as heating oil.

The rise, forecast by analysts before the report today from the American Petroleum Institute, would come as mild winter weather and recession slowed fuel consumption and left oil inventories 10 percent higher than a year ago. Refinery profit margins have fallen by a third over the past 12 months.

``The warm weather we have experienced this winter as well as the slow economy have boosted supplies to a comfortable level,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``There are no worries about crude oil stocks right now.''

Crude oil for March delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $20.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Jan. 17. Prices were down 32 percent from this time last year.

Crude oil inventories last week were expected to show a rise of between 1.8 million and 2.2 million barrels from 316 million the week before, according to a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts before today's report from the industry-funded institute.

Distillate fuel supplies, including heating oil and diesel, were predicted to drop between 900,000 and 1.3 million barrels. Heating oil inventories in last week's report were almost one- third larger than a year earlier.

``Inventories are at the top of their average range for this time of year,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York. ``These inventories provide a cushion. Even with an unexpected disruption in supplies there will be a cap on prices. We won't being seeing $25 oil anytime soon.''

Refinery Operations

The institute last week said that U.S. refineries operated at 86.4 percent of their capacity, up 0.6 percentage point from a two- year low the previous week. Analysts expected a decline of 0.4 percentage point in today's report.

Refiners can earn about $3.36 a barrel selling gasoline and heating oil, based on U.S. futures market prices of those fuels and crude oil. The margin a year ago was $5.06 a barrel.

In London, Brent crude oil for March settlement fell 98 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $20.46 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

Saudi Arabia and Norway, two of the top three oil exporters, reiterated their commitment to keep production restrictions in place through June, a Norwegian oil ministry official said.

OPEC Plan

Norway agreed in December to cut output by 150,000 barrels a day starting Jan. 1 in cooperation with a plan by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce world supply and prop up prices. OPEC reduced its daily output quotas by 1.5 million barrels.

``Nothing has changed with our decision to maintain cuts until the end of June,'' said Sissel Edvardsen, a Norwegian oil ministry spokeswoman, after a meeting between Norway's oil minister, Einar Steensnaes, and his Saudi counterpart, Ali al- Naimi.

Russia, the second-biggest exporter after OPEC-member Saudi Arabia, committed to reducing exports by 150,000 barrels a day through March. Russia and Norway are not members of OPEC.


Gruß

K C

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>New York, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than 3 percent on expectations that an industry report would show.....

Und wenn nicht?... Dann erwartet man eben wieder was anderes.

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Das wird ja demnächst Unruhe geben, wenn steigende Röhöl- und Produktenpreise den Benzinpreis wieder über die alte Schallmauermarke von 2,00 DM /l treiben. Diese Entwicklung paßt dann auch in die anstehenden Tarifverhandlungen zwischen Arbeitgeber und Gewerkschaften. -- Armer Bundeskanzler du hast es wahrhaftig nicht einfach - ansteigende Inflationsraten kann Deutschland nun wirklich nicht gebrauchen. Warten wir mal die weitere Entwicklung ab.

Gruß

K C



Crude Oil Gains on Expectations of Economic Rebound in U.S.
By Bradley Keoun


New York, Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than 2 percent after the government said a measure of U.S. retail sales increased, spurring expectations of stronger energy demand.

Oil inventories have been rising during a recession even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut back production four times over a one-year period to prevent a glut. The report of higher sales of retail goods, except for autos, raised the likelihood that fuel demand from manufacturers will rise as well, analysts said.

``The market viewed this'' report as a sign the U.S. economy may be emerging from the recession, said John Gretzinger, an oil analyst at FC Stone Group Inc. in Kansas City. ``The key factor in the oil market is demand.''

Crude oil for March delivery rose 45 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $21.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 4.5 percent this week and have gained 27 percent from a 2 1/2- year low on Nov. 19.

In London, Brent crude oil for April delivery rose 32 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $20.92 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

U.S. sales of items other than cars and trucks rose 1.2 percent in January, the biggest gain in almost two years, the Commerce Department said.

While demand may rise, inventories may start to decline, as output cuts by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers begin to take hold.

OPEC has lowered production quotas by 5 million barrels a day in the past year to prevent a glut and bolster prices. Russia, Norway and other non-OPEC exporters began cutting back last month.

``OPEC has done a pretty good job of cutting back on production and stabilizing prices,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

Technical Rally

Some of the day's gains came after prices rose above $20.67 a barrel, yesterday's low, prompting commodity funds and other large speculators to buy contracts, reversing bets on falling prices, said Chester Irvin, an oil trader at ABN Amro Inc. in New York.

Also helping to support prices was concern that a looming political crisis in Venezuela might disrupt oil shipments, said Ed Silliere, a vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York. Venezuela is OPEC's third-largest producer and only member in the Western Hemisphere.

An industry report of a rise in U.S. inventories to an eight- month high as imports surged wasn't enough to send prices lower.

Supplies rose 1.5 percent last week to 320.7 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

Oil imports rose by 2 million barrels, or 26 percent. Part of that gain came as tankers that were delayed by fog in the Houston Ship Channel a week earlier made their deliveries, analysts said.




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