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<td><font face="arial" size="2">12:01 PM ET Jul 5, 2002</font></td>
<td width="156" height="22"> <a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/default.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=">Latest
Market Overview</a></td>
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<td vAlign="top" rowSpan="3"><font face="arial" size="4">Gold rally to
resume as stocks crash, analysts say</font><font face="arial" size="2">
<span class="t03">SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Gold investors say they are
more convinced than ever their metal will resume its rally as Wall Street
falls victim to a stock-market crash later this year.</span>
Yet believers in gold, which had rallied amid nuclear-missile threats
in India and Pakistan, say the rules have changed in the past two weeks.
Gold's spot price, once flirting with $330 an ounce, is now near $310. The
euro's failure to reach the $1 mark - the European currency was at 97
cents Friday - has helped thin gold's 20 percent gain since Jan. 2 to 15
percent.
"The technical damage sustained by gold and gold shares means
playing the sector has become an issue of market timing, not the
jump-on-an-uptrend story that has characterized the sector in the first
half of this year," says Robert Bishop, editor of Gold Mining
Stock Report in California.
Bishop says the ailing stock market, enjoying a post-Independence Day
rally on Friday, may provide the next spark for gold."Smart money
continues to exit the market on rallies. The loss of investor confidence
in U.S. companies is being accompanied by questions about the basic
integrity of our financial markets," says Bishop, who forecast a
Fourth of July rally for the stock market several days ago.
The price of gold, and gold stocks, is becoming more tied to the health,
or maladies, of the stock market, and less tied to the dollar and
international events, say gold's supporters.
"Somewhere above the $340/$360 range, I expect to see a one-day
jump of $20 to $25," says Ian McAvity, a longtime gold investor and
editor of the Toronto newsletter Deliberations on World Markets."It
may coincide with the Dow well south of 8,000."
In trading one day last week, gold's price rose $5 an ounce in the
early New York hours as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 200 points.
Yet as John Doody, editor of Gold Stock Analyst, points out, the gold
rally was short-lived."By day's end, the positions had reversed as a
result of obvious but unannounced government intervention in the stock and
gold markets," said Doody, considered one of the most exhaustive
sources on gold's price movements.
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Doody and dozens of other newsletter writers are pointing increasingly<br />
to what they see as weakness in gold that is tied to yen-selling by the<br />
three big central banks: the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and<br />
the European Central Bank. Others say commercial banks are short-selling<br />
gold to depress the bullion rally.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
In this year's first three months,"the big New York banks that<br />
play this market, Chase/Morgan (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=JPM">JPM</a>)<br />
and Citibank (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=C">C</a>)<br />
, increased their gold derivative books from $48.9 billion to $56.5<br />
billion, a 15.5 percent increase since the start of the year," Doody<br />
reported in his newsletter. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the<br />
Currency tracks options, futures, swaps and other contracts sold by<br />
commercial banks as derivative products."Whether the banks'<br />
derivative position increased due to Delta hedging to maintain a neutral<br />
exposure, or due to shorting the metal to try and jam the genie back in<br />
the bottle, we don't know," Doody says.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
To be sure, summertime gold prices almost always feel the effects of<br />
gravity because of reduced buying of jewelry in the July through September<br />
period. This is most pronounced in India and other Asian countries where<br />
the metal is revered. India, the largest consumer market for gold,<br />
experiences its monsoon season starting in July and has no major festivals<br />
that would spark gold purchases during the summer months.<br />
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Few gold analysts see a decision by Vanguard to close its $700 million
Precious Metals Fund to new investors as a sign Wall Street is ready to
embrace gold mining stocks. All gold mutual funds have led the performance
charts this year, some with 50 percent and greater gains. The gold mutual
funds benefited from a rally in gold mining stocks of all sizes, from the
large, such as Newmont Mining (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NEM">NEM</a>)
, to the small, such as Goldcorp (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=GG">GG</a>)
The Vanguard Precious Metals Fund (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=VGPMX">VGPMX</a>)
said the fund's"strong performance against the backdrop of weak
stock market returns has attracted substantial cash inflows, which has
raised our concerns about investor time horizons and expectations."
The fund is up about 28 percent this year. Through the end of May, the
gain was much larger: 50.7 percent.
Mutual funds often shut their inflow valves when investors most want to
own a particular sector. The Vanguard fund drew in $124 million in new
cash during the first five months of 2002 against $400,000 in net new cash
flow for all of 2001.
In the case of gold mining stocks, inflows are especially worrisome
because the combined market capitalization of major gold mining stocks in
the American stock market - about $35 billion -- is a drop in the bucket
compared with the overall stock market. The amount is considered so tiny
that gold stocks have yet to qualify for an exchange-traded fund that
would allow investors to trade the sector in the form of one security,
like is done with the Nasdaq 100 (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=QQQ">QQQ</a>)
, the S&P 500 Index and dozens of industries, from drugs to banks.
The World Gold Council, which sponsors gold-denominated bonds, is
working on plans for an exchange-traded fund for the actual metal. If the
council, a trade group, succeeds in navigating regulatory waters,
investors would be able to buy gold in the shape of a security at any time
during the U.S. market day.
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Bishop, the newsletter editor of Gold Mining Stock Report, predicts<br />
mutual funds, as they seek to put the checks that gold-seeking investors<br />
are sending them this year, increasingly will examine smaller mining<br />
companies as possible investments.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
"Gold breaking through resistance in the $330 to $340 range could<br />
hasten the flow of funds down the food chain," Bishop tells me.<br />
"Two other variables are also likely to come into play: a major gold<br />
discovery, which always delivers a ripple effect throughout the sector;<br />
and further consolidation, with majors and intermediates buying juniors<br />
that have the gold reserves of tomorrow in their portfolios."<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Bishop says Francisco Gold Corp. in Canada (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=CA:FGX">FGX</a>)<br />
is a good example of this phenomenon. Francisco shareholders in June<br />
approved a merger with tiny Glamis Gold Ltd. (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=GLG">GLG</a>)<br />
, a Nevada company. The combined companies' goal is to produce<br />
half-a-million gold ounces a year.<br />
<br />
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"Over time," says Bishop,"I expect that higher gold
prices, a major discovery and further acquisitions of juniors will result
in junior companies being more widely owned by the funds."
The price of spot gold at noon ET Friday was rising 70 cents to $311.20
an ounce. Gold's polar opposite, the Nasdaq 100 (<a class="lk01" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NDX">NDX</a>)
, was up 5 percent with one hour left in the shortened trading day.
<span class="lb01">Thom Calandra's StockWatch by e-mail</span>
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<td class="t19"> Jul 5, 2002</td>
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<td align="left"> <a class="rlk05" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1643&ticker=DJIA&dist=">DJIA</a></td>
<td class="t21">9379.5</td>
<td class="t22" align="right"> +324.531</td>
</tr>
<tr align="right">
<td align="left"> <a class="rlk05" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=3291&ticker=COMP&dist=">NASDAQ</a></td>
<td class="t21"> 1448.36</td>
<td class="t22" align="right"> +68.19</td>
</tr>
<tr align="right">
<td align="left"> <a class="rlk05" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=3377&ticker=SPX&dist=">SP500</a></td>
<td class="t21"> 989.0298</td>
<td class="t22" align="right"> +35.0398</td>
</tr>
<tr align="right">
<td align="left"> <a class="rlk05" href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=11420&ticker=$TNX&dist=">10Yr</a></td>
<td class="t21"> 4.864%</td>
<td class="t22" align="right"> +1.2</td>
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