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Markbird (part 1)
by: southafricanrand (67/M/Sun City)
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 08/03/02 03:32 pm
Msg: 13946 of 13954
U tend to agree with Dr Roffey here in his analysis. I would love to hear your opinion of his work. He is a brilliant fellow South African who is quite experienced in the gold market.

" My Elliott wave analysis of gold bullion indicates that the first 1-2 and third 3-4 waves were relatively short, especially compared to the gargantuan moves of the shares. This implies a large extended fifth wave as the final up move in this leg of the market. Thus I look to this upward move to be far greater than any previous move in the bullion price.

In addition there is a huge reverse divergence buy signal. Note that the oscillator at L2 has fallen to the same level as L1 but the gold price L2 remains well above the low of L1. This indicates a continuation of the major bull trend.

When an oscillator, as in this case, pulls back from overbought territory into the neutral areas in the middle of its range it creates space for the next upward surge. BUT this usually leads to a huge catapult effect. As the oscillator goes back to the overbought regions it causes a huge upward thrust on the price chart.

I find all this data on the gold bullion chart to be explosively bullish.

The FT Gold index sums up the situation. The current correction is merely the 3-4 retracement that has formed the right shoulder of a huge head and shoulders bottom pattern. In addition we again have a reverse divergence as the oscillator has hit a recent low but the index is nowhere near making a low. This indicates more upside still to come. The target projection out of the H&S bottom is to 2500 on the index for a 280% upmove prospect.

The JSE Gold index had a large irregular top pattern that I continually detailed. That is why the C wave sell off that I constantly analysed was so vicious. But we have again hit a reverse divergence buy signal as the oscillator moved to a new low but the index has refused to confirm indicating a continuation of the upward bull trend. The 50% retracement in the index has pulled it back to test the massive support levels built up during the past 20 years bear market trading. The fact that the gold shares shot right through this level on their bull run is more than ample proof of a major bull market in gold shares, and NOT a bear market reaction à la Prechter. I look for the index to treble during the next bull phase.


part 2
by: southafricanrand (67/M/Sun City)
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 08/03/02 03:33 pm
Msg: 13947 of 13954
I had detailed a couple of weeks ago that the Rand had to remain better than the 10,30 level or it could weaken back to 11,0. The Rand has remained remarkably strong and did not penetrate the 10,30 resistance. The uptrend is now under attack. If the Rand can move back under 10 to the dollar then I look for a powerful strengthening in the Rand to 8,50. This data under 10 is extremely powerful.

The above chart shows Anglogold relative to the JSE Gold index. For the past three years it has under performed the index. But the top oscillator on the relative strength line is diverging and indicating that ANG is ready for a sustained period of superior performance.

The Dow, in keeping with all the other charts, has also formed a reverse divergence but in this case it signals a minor rally and a resumption of the main bear trend. Note that the oscillator has made a new recent high at H2 above H1 but the Dow is nowhere near to making a new short term high. This is a classic rally in a bear market.

The S&P has exactly the same effect. The recent price surge is nothing more than a rally in a bear market with reverse divergence on the oscillators indicating a continuation of the bear trend in the near future. NASDAQ also has the same data.

Conclusions

The huge 50% sell off in the gold shares has hit all my downside targets.


It has mapped out the 3-4 wave of the bull run.


It is now ready to resume the bull market surge into wave 5.


Gold bullion is ready for an explosive move above all the resistance at the $320 to $330 level.


A move above $305 will signal the start of this charge.


I look for a move to $420 in the early part of 2003.


I look for a 300 to 400% appreciation in the gold shares. Not the 700 to 1000% moves of the last bull run.


The Rand looks to be on its way to 8,50 should it be able to strengthen under 10 to the $.


Long dated gold call warrants are of interest, especially on Anglogold.


US markets also have reverse divergence signals indicating that the recent price surges are nothing more than minor rallies in an ongoing bear trend“.

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Gruesse
netrader

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@netrader
gute Nachrichten für die Longs in Minen und Rand.
Vielen Dank für die Einstellung ins Forum.

Emerald
(z.Zt. im Wallis/CH)

Für Montag sind m.E. Goldminen--Aktien stark nachgefragt, da der XAU - Index
wieder über 62.00 schloss. Ebenfalls positiv GOX und HUI


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...dass die"4" sehr bald erreicht sei und wir kurz vor der"5" stehen, d. h., es müsste bald massiv in den Keller gehen. Allerdings postete Elli vor kurzem, er sei"long" in Minen und die momentan allgemein unsichere Welt(wirtschafts)-Situation könnte auch"für" Gold interpretiert werden.
Bis jetzt war die Treffsicherheit der Wellen-Theorie ja bestechend gut, zumindest was ich so nachvollziehen konnte.
Was tun? Dem Bauch folgen oder den Wellen?
...fragt sich Amber


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>...dass die"4" sehr bald erreicht sei und wir kurz vor der"5" stehen, d. h., es müsste bald massiv in den Keller gehen. Allerdings postete Elli vor kurzem, er sei"long" in Minen und die momentan allgemein unsichere Welt(wirtschafts)-Situation könnte auch"für" Gold interpretiert werden.
>Bis jetzt war die Treffsicherheit der Wellen-Theorie ja bestechend gut, zumindest was ich so nachvollziehen konnte.
>Was tun? Dem Bauch folgen oder den Wellen?
>...fragt sich Amber

Nix da natürlich behalten denn schon auf Sicht von einem Jahr wirst Du traumhafte Werte sehen.
In Jüküs längerem Programm ist Gold ganz oben.Nicht versuchen zu traden.
Daß Morgan und andere Banken versuchen die schon investierten Mineneigner rauszuschlagen ist doch klar.Drin bleiben oder sogar noch zukaufen.

Gruß EUKLID

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