-->Im Text unten heißt es u.a.:

"These speculators, mostly on the New York Exchange, were buying gold future contracts while demand for physical gold was actually declining"

Mir ist das Zusammenspiel der Future contracts mit dem Kauf/Verkauf von phys. Gold leider immer noch nicht klar.
Irgendwie werde ich das Gefühl nicht los, das Gold überall nur auf dem Papier/mit Papier gehandelt wird, das entsprechend bei Fälligkeit auch nur mit Geld bezahlt wird, das aber kaum jemand wirklich Gold physisch nachfragt.

Ein Freund hat mir gerade zu meiner Frage, wie der Goldpreis mit Papiergold beeinflußt wird, in diesem Zusammenhang folgenden Erklärungsversuch geschickt, den ich hier einmal (mit seinem Einverständnis) zur Diskussion stellen möchte.
Ist das alles folgendermaßen richtig erklärt?
----------------------------------------------------
"Nun ja - natürlich wird versucht insgesamt MEHR zu verkaufen, als
nachgefragt wird - sonst könnte man ja den Preis nicht drücken. Insofern
hast du recht. Aber die Frage ist einfach - wie lange halten die das
durch.

Stelle dir folgendes vor:
Du verkaufst Gold für 260 $ in 3 Monaten.
Die 260 $ bringen dir 3 % - also rund 263 $ in 3 Monaten.
Jetzt steht das Gold bei 270 $.
Du verkaufst für 270 $ in wieder 3 Monaten - davon musst die 7 $
hergeben (weil du die 263 $ + 7 $) benötigst, um ein Gold für den
ersten Termin zu liefern.
In der Summe hat sich bisher wenig geändert. Du hast immer noch 1 Gold
verkauft, deine Kasse weist 263 $ auf und von dir gefordert werden eben
das eine Gold, dessen marktpreis täglich schwankt.
Dieses Spielchen kannst du ja mal hochrechnen - und dann rechne mal mit
ein, daß du jedes mal 0,2 Gold mehr verkaufst.

Ich habe das mal grob im Excel gerechnet:
verkauft gekauft Geld bekommen Zinsen Geld
gezahlt
1 260 1 0 260 2,6 0
2 270 1,2 1 324 3,24 270
3 290 1,4 1,2 406 4,06 348
4 300 1,6 1,4 480 4,8 420
5 310 1,8 1,6 558 5,58 496
6 320 2 1,8 640 6,4 576

2668 26,68 2110
2686
2694,68 + 2 Gold


Hier siehst du, dass du nach 6 Perioden 2694,68 $ bekommen hast und 2686
bezahlt hast. Also 8,68 $ mehr hast. Dagegen steht aber jetzt eine
Forderung von 2 Gold - und das ist m.E: das explosive.
Wenn man das mal so banal rechnet, dann wäre nach 1,5 Jahren (6
Periosden a 3 Monate) tatsächlich nicht viel passiert...lasse das aber
mal 4 oder 5 Jahre laufen.....und den Preis weiter steigen.

Was jetzt noch dazu kommt sind natürlich die Schwankungen. Und hier
arbeiten die Manipulatoren ja kräftig.
Wenn man nun in Periode 6 wie folgt manipuliert - man verkauft bei 320 $
soviel (intrady) bis der Preis auf 310 $ fällt, dann kann man die
Position, die man zu 320 $ liefern muss bei 310 $ eindecken. Man bekommt
also rund 10 $ in die Kasse und kann 1 Gold liefern (also wirklich nur
grob vereinfacht). Und ich denke, daß wird versucht jeden Tag. Es sind
soviele offene Positionen, daß man versucht jeden Tag den Preis zu
drücken - mit neuen offenen Positionen - um die alten zu schliessen.
Lieber eine offene Position bei 315 $, als eine bei 260 $ und zwischen
260 und 300 $ dürften die meisten liegen.
Aber bitte - ich bin kein Experte für solche intraday-Geschichten - also
muss das nicht so sein. Es ist kurz der versuch das darzustellen - evtl.
ist es ja auch ganz anders.
Kannst es ja mal ins Forum zur Diskussion stellen. Aber bitte ohne
meinen Namen, weil ich da jetzt nicht wirklich recherchiert habe und das
nur mal eben nebenbei gemacht habe.

Allgemein: Bei Terminkontrakten ist IMMER nur Geld fällig - niemals die
Schweinebä#uche, Kartoffeln, Gold oder was auch immer."

------------------
Außerdem ergänzt er:
Am terminmarkt kennt man denKontrahenten nicht.Also musst du dir vor
Augen halten, was der Käufer mit dem Gold in 3 Monaten machen will.
1. Zocken - also er kauft Gold in drei Monaten von dir zu 260 und hofft,
daß es dann bei 290 steht und er mit"nichts" 30 $ Gewinn gemacht hat.
2. Eine verkaufte Position glattstellen
3. Verkauftes physisches Gold absichern.

Aber das meiste machen wohl die"Zocker" (damit meine ich nun uach
Investmentbanken, Notenbanken usw....)

Das ganze Theater wird ja nur veranstaltet um den Preis zu drücken. Also
sind deine Ausführungen richtig. Aber nicht alle Marktteilnehmer gehen
von weiter fallenden Preisen aus.

Und - das muss ich zur vorigen Mail anfügern:

Man hat früher Gold für 280 verkauft (geliehen von der NB für 1 %),
dafür 3 % Zinsen bekommen und dann das Gold für 280 wieder zurückgekauft
- also man hat 1 % bezahlt und 3 % bekommen. Macht 2 % - rund 5 $ -
geschenkt. Wenn dann der Goldpreis noch gefallen ist, dann hat man noch
ein paar Dollar gewinn gemacht.
Aber abgesehen von dem gestiegenen Risiko weiterer Preissteigerungen im
Goldmarkt, geht das jetzt nicht mehr.

"Leihzinsen" 1 %, Zinsen am Geldmarkt 1,5 % - dieser Spread ist zu eng.
(die echten Zahlen sind anders - aber es solls nur veranschaulichen)."


---------------------------------------------------------------------

Ist das so korrekt?

-->nein, 3% von 260 euro sind 7,80 euro und nicht 3.

ansonsten hast du den kern des problems recht gut erwischt: es haben fat boys mit dem gold der nationen gespielt und mit der kohle (derivate) der eigenen truppe und hängen jetzt mit viel papiergold in schieflage, weil sie irgendwann liefern müssen und ihre eingefahrenen gewinne zum stopfen anderer löcher gebraucht wurden.

irgendwann also gute zeiten für physisches gold, wenn wir den impact bei den goldschuldnern (wirtschaftlich) überleben.

rechnerisch sehen die gewinne etwas besser dadurch aus, daß der preis jahrelang konsequent gedrückt wurde und dieser verfall zusammen mit den schwankungen doch etliche prozente gebracht haben, denke ich mal.

bf

-->



A Review of Gold
By
James Sinclair
August 27th, 2002



Since mid-June we have been in a reaction in the gold and silver price. Today gold moved slightly above the $312 resistance level. The question in everyone's mind is"Are we out of this reactionary phase and in a new leg in the gold bull market"? Since, I know as a trader myself, I want clear and precise answers, allow me to respond:

1. Yes, the reaction in precious metals is behind us.
2. Gold has fulfilled it downside objective in the spike down intra-day to 298.
3. In practical terms $302-$305 has held the decline in gold as it represents that fundamental level at which the"Risk Control Programs" used by all commercial gold bank dealers have returned all gold derivatives to their fully exposed short spread position.
4. At present there is a window in time, until the end of the first week of October 2002, that will allow the general equities market to snap back from declines with significant rallies.
5. Therefore the way for gold to a new high in this leg will be hampered by set backs due to talking head heralding a"Return to Reality (theirs)" with each rally until the end of the first week of October 2002.
6. The gold shares are in a new leg up in their bull market.
7. Much of the share debacle (not reaction) came, in my opinion, as a result of the promotion of the Prechter deflationist scenario coupled with an overbought condition that the gold shares had accumulated.
8. The period in which the general equities market has rally potential will end early in at the end of the first week of October 2002 for a while.
9. After that (end of the first week of October), in my opinion, the gold and silver market will have an uninterrupted period in which a new high in the present leg is quite possible. Certainly a test of the $329.94 will, IMO, occur
10. The key number on gold is now $329.94. The"Derivative WARS," which are being fought daily between the JPM, Goldman, Lehman, Merrills of the world and the Asian bullish interest will be lost by the Gold derivative dealers when gold closes above $330 now, not necessarily the $354.
11. A close above $330 will give us, IMO, $380-$400
12. Gold is in a transition back to currency where is has significant value. When gold is purely a commodity it is of questionable value. It is this transition, gold back to a currency, which underscore the bull market for gold. It is this transition, gold back to a currency, that is not recognized by the gold dealer's cartel, the central banks or the talking heads of Wall Street.
13. By the end of this year or very early next, IMO, all five fundamental criteria for a long term bull market in gold will be in place. When that occurs the bear raids of the gold cartel will be history
14. Overhead resistance is at $312.50 today. We are as I write at this on the cash gold bid. Above that we have significant resistance at $317.50 and then at $329.94.
15. It is not all-clear skies for gold yet, but it is in the making.

-->The Final Shoe is falling
SOON!


We have previously outlined to you what makes the gold market happen in fundamental terms. For gold to establish a trend there need be no other stimulus these than fundamental issues. However for the sake of review we will briefly review.

1/ The dynamic condition of the US Dollar.
2/ The condition of the Current Account in dynamic, not static terms.
3/ The attractiveness (or not) of equities as a storehouse of value in the minds of international investors.
4/ The attractiveness (or not) of the US Federal Debt market, 10-year bonds and 30 year bonds, as a storehouse of value in terms of international investors.
5/ The condition of the general commodity market.

That is the entire gold story. All the rest is noise. It may be important noise but other criteria remains only noise. The trend is made by the fundamental five criteria above. The noise can excite or dull the gold trend but it does not make the gold trend. International political tension is a noise item. The market fight between great position holders is a noise item. If you understand the five criteria of trend then you might not need us. We wish to impart knowledge and our goal would be realized when you do not need us. We have a combined 90 years of experience in gold. It is yours for the reading. Please take it and take it to the financial engineers of the gold producers you are invested in. Please save them from themselves thereby saving yourself and gold as a monetary vehicle as well.

1/ The dollar has fallen to a degree that has taken the world by surprise. It has been hammered. In today's market world of instant price gratification, the price downside is like the person who walks into an elevator only to find no elevator waiting and falls down the dark empty shaft. The dollar has free fallen down the elevator shaft.

2/ The Current Account has dropped into a hemorrhaging deficit faster and further than anyone suspected. It was pooh-poohed in February of 2002 by none other than the US Secretary of the Treasury. The Current Account Balance is a broad measure of US trade and capital flows. It blossomed in deficit in the first quarter of 2002 by 112.5 billion, further building up the mountain of US dollars held by non-US entities, both public and private. Now we step into the theory of up and down spirals. As more dollars flow into international hands in an environment of (number 3 in the gold equation) WEAK EQUITY MARKETS, more dollars flow out of equities internationally into the mountain being created by the Current Account Deficit, and around and around we go. As the mountain of external US dollars gets bigger and bigger and the dollar goes lower and lower the result is that equity market rallies in search of a fundamental bottom are ineffectual at establishing that final market low. That is a down spiral of #1, #2 and #3 of the gold equation.

All is somewhat well as long as WHAT? All is well as long as #4 of the gold equation does not come into play. #4 is the attractiveness of the medium to long term US bond market. We"know" that from a cyclical standpoint, both long term and short-term highs in this market are prone to pass by November of 2002. So here is the answer to WHEN DOES THE LAST SHOE FALL on the complacent hedger? November of 2002 is a time that portends the greatest probability that the grime reaper of reality will knock on the door of the complacent hedger and hold out his begging bowl for all your cash please. Why? Well, that mountain of dollars collecting in the world outside of the financial centers of the US as described in the spiral of #1, #2 & #3 above, finds its last bastion of a storehouse of value, the US bond market, is becoming a loser, and then the dollar would be hammered even harder and faster than what has happened already. Gold would, under that scenario, pass up through $354 like a hot knife through butter. Under this scenario, we doubt, anyone would even see $354 go up in flames, as it would happen so fast. Then gold will be in the $380-400 range and the share prices of the major gold producers still complacent in hedging would be falling.

Therefore the answer to your question of when the shoe kicks the derriere of the complacent gold producer hedger is answered as potentially and very possibly November of 2002.

You ask about the general commodity market's contribution? Every ingredient is like a thermometer reading with five indicators of gold's fundamental strength. Four ingredients can carry number five as neutral. That is the genesis of the prediction of $380-$400 today given in this dissertation as a result of gold fundamental #1 as distinctly with a pro-gold high reading, #2 with a distinctly high pro-gold reading, #3 distinctly high pro-gold reading, # 4 expected in November 2002 to support gold and the final #5 now having come from totally negative to negative/neutral which is not a depreciating item to the gold equation. Number five, the commodity market, will be the ingredient that determines if or not gold moves above $380-$400. We will deal with that in the final quarter of 2002. #1, #2 and #3 took us above the $305 barrier and initiated the mechanism of how and whereby nominal value of $280,000,000,000 of gold derivatives are becoming real value in the marketplace as a product of risk control program buying by gold banks. This has presented gold with the challenge to $354 that is where we stand now.

Until September-October, it is our opinion, that correct action for investors in the gold market place is to buy every reaction, selling 50% of your position into strength & rebuy again on weakness, etc, not fearing the talking heads of mega-nonsense about the transient nature of the gold rally that is being paraded on the financial TV stations owned by Wall Street equity interests in the first place. After October, hold for further opinions from command central at the Schultz/Sinclair golden war room headquarters.


HD Schultz can be reached at www.hsletter.com
James Sinclair at www.tanrange.com

-->>nein, 3% von 260 euro sind 7,80 euro und nicht 3.

Also er meinte aber in drei Monaten und nicht im Jahr. Zitat:

Die 260 $ bringen dir 3 % - also rund 263 $ in 3 Monaten

-->Hallo ihr alle,

die üblichen Überlegungen zu"supply and demand" führen ganz bestimmt in die Irre, so lange man Gold nicht in seiner monetären Funktion betrachtet. Das heißt: Gold ist das letzte, ultimative Wert-Aufbewahrungsmittel. Das ist seine monetäre Funktion. Die Nachfrage nach Gold nimmt also dann zu, wenn die anderen Möglichkeiten, Werte aufzubewahren, dahinschwinden, wenn also der Dollar an Wert verliert, wenn die Bonds an Wert verlieren, wenn auch die (normalen) Aktien immer weniger Wert haben."Fabrication demand" und"new mining supply" sind so gesehen ganz uninteressant für den Goldpreis, weil es hier eine starke Rückwirkung des Goldpreise auf"fabrication demand" gibt: Wenn der Goldpreis steigt, geht die Nachfrage nach Goldschmuck zurück (und entsprechend umgekehrt). Steve Saville hat das zugespitzt und ganz richtig so formuliert:"... we explained why the deficit between newly mined gold supply and fabrication demand that many gold bulls cite as a reason to be bullish, is essentially a red herring [ein Quatsch]. This so-called supply deficit has almost no relevance as far as the gold price is concerned.

Gold is money and it therefore must be analysed in the same way as the US$ is analysed. In one respect, however, analysis of gold is simpler than analysis of the US$ because the total supply of gold never increases by more than 2% during any 12-month period. This means that changes in investment demand will always greatly outweigh any change in supply and, therefore, that the supply side of the equation can be ignored when analysing gold. In other words, when analysing gold we can concentrate completely on the demand side of the equation, that is, we just need to look at what is happening in the world and decide whether it will cause people to want to own more gold or less gold.

On a related matter, we do not think that central bank gold sales and lending are major impediments to a gold bull market. The volume of gold sold/loaned by central banks will necessarily be tiny compared to the amount of fiat currency sloshing around the world. Furthermore, if central banks want to retain any semblance of control over the gold market, or at least retain the ability to intervene in the market in some way during a crisis, then they must retain most of their gold reserves." [www.speculative-investor.com 21.8.02]
Mit anderen Worten: Gold wird dann entscheidend hochgehen, wenn das"investment-demand" (die Suche nach dem richtigen Wert-Aufbewahrungsmittel) erst richtig losgeht - und das wird noch etwas dauern. Noch hat Gold wohl seine Konsolidierung nicht abgeschlossen, was auch heißt, dass der Zeitpunkt für den Investor, (wieder vermehrt) in Goldminen einzusteigen, erst noch kommen wird.

Grüße

ch.

-->Bis auf Ziffer 12 scheint mir das aber nun sooo aussagekräftig auch nicht zu sein...
M.E. werden zumindest diesmal vom Autor nur Behauptungen aufgestellt...
"die Reaktion der Metalle liegt hinter uns..." Ja? Warum?
"ein Schluß über 333 Dollar wird uns, meiner Meinung nach, bis 380 Dollar bringen" Ja schön! Eben seine Meinung...
"Goldminenaktien sind in einem Bullenmarkt" usw.
Diesen Text finde ich wirklich eher schwach, da hat er m.E. schon bessere Aufsätze geschrieben...
Spieler


>
>
>A Review of Gold
>By
>James Sinclair
>August 27th, 2002
>Since mid-June we have been in a reaction in the gold and silver price. Today gold moved slightly above the $312 resistance level. The question in everyone's mind is"Are we out of this reactionary phase and in a new leg in the gold bull market"? Since, I know as a trader myself, I want clear and precise answers, allow me to respond:
>1. Yes, the reaction in precious metals is behind us.
>2. Gold has fulfilled it downside objective in the spike down intra-day to 298.
>3. In practical terms $302-$305 has held the decline in gold as it represents that fundamental level at which the"Risk Control Programs" used by all commercial gold bank dealers have returned all gold derivatives to their fully exposed short spread position.
>4. At present there is a window in time, until the end of the first week of October 2002, that will allow the general equities market to snap back from declines with significant rallies.
>5. Therefore the way for gold to a new high in this leg will be hampered by set backs due to talking head heralding a"Return to Reality (theirs)" with each rally until the end of the first week of October 2002.
>6. The gold shares are in a new leg up in their bull market.
>7. Much of the share debacle (not reaction) came, in my opinion, as a result of the promotion of the Prechter deflationist scenario coupled with an overbought condition that the gold shares had accumulated.
>8. The period in which the general equities market has rally potential will end early in at the end of the first week of October 2002 for a while.
>9. After that (end of the first week of October), in my opinion, the gold and silver market will have an uninterrupted period in which a new high in the present leg is quite possible. Certainly a test of the $329.94 will, IMO, occur
>10. The key number on gold is now $329.94. The"Derivative WARS," which are being fought daily between the JPM, Goldman, Lehman, Merrills of the world and the Asian bullish interest will be lost by the Gold derivative dealers when gold closes above $330 now, not necessarily the $354.
>11. A close above $330 will give us, IMO, $380-$400
>12. Gold is in a transition back to currency where is has significant value. When gold is purely a commodity it is of questionable value. It is this transition, gold back to a currency, which underscore the bull market for gold. It is this transition, gold back to a currency, that is not recognized by the gold dealer's cartel, the central banks or the talking heads of Wall Street.
>13. By the end of this year or very early next, IMO, all five fundamental criteria for a long term bull market in gold will be in place. When that occurs the bear raids of the gold cartel will be history
>14. Overhead resistance is at $312.50 today. We are as I write at this on the cash gold bid. Above that we have significant resistance at $317.50 and then at $329.94.
>15. It is not all-clear skies for gold yet, but it is in the making.
>
>
>
>
>

-->Der Goldpreis ist das Gegenstück zum Papier.

Je weniger Papier - also Aktien, Anleihen, Dollar und Euro/Jen als Wertaufbewahrungsmittel taugt, umso höher der Goldpreis bzw. umso niedriger der Goldwert des Papiers.

Kurz und bündig: Je schlechter das Substitut, desto mehr glänzt das Original.:-))

Gruß
Diogenes

-->gut definition der zeitspanne 3 monate, dann o.k.
zinseszinsrechnung erfolgt bei mir immer aufs jahr, kürzere zeiträume nur bei expliziter erwähnung, also 2 euro auf 3 monante, verfälscht die rechnung nur marginal.

danke für hinweis mit gruß bf