-->Zeichen, das zumindest ich genutzt habe.
Frage nun an unsere Chartisten Gegenbewegung?
Wenn ja wie weit?
Sollte es jetzt los gehen kann sie sehr stark ausfallen meine ich, da ich keinen kenne der in den letzten Tagen nicht Short war.
ups ich seh gerade schon 1,7 % +

MFG

-->Massen der Börsenbriefschreiber in Bullenhitze...

Advisers too eager for 'double bottom'

By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:03 AM ET Sept. 25, 2002


ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- The question that dozens of investment newsletter editors have been pondering the past few days as the stock market has fallen back to its July lows: Would the stock market successfully pass its test of those lows, creating the bullish chart pattern known as a"double bottom"?

The mere fact that so many advisers are asking this question suggests that they remain far too eager to declare this bear market to be over.

If advisers were dispassionately analyzing the market's technical trends, instead of latching onto anything that even superficially justifies being bullish, then few of them would be talking about a double bottom. That's because genuine double bottom formations cannot be confirmed until well after they occur.

NEWSLETTER CENTER
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I refer to what the classic text on technical analysis,"Technical Analysis of Stock Trends," by Robert Edwards and John Magee, has to say about double bottoms: This formation"is referred to by name perhaps more often than any other chart pattern by traders who possess a smattering of technical 'lingo' but little organized knowledge of technical facts. True Double Tops and Double Bottoms are exceedingly rare... And the true patterns... can seldom be positively detected until prices have gone quite a long way from them. They can never be foretold, or identified as soon as they occur."

In fact, according to Edwards and Magee, a double bottom is not confirmed until the rally off the second bottom surpasses the extent of the rally off the first bottom. In the current case, that means that -- even if the market were to rally from current levels -- advisers would not be justified in declaring the bear market to be over until it had surpassed its August highs.

That's a long ways away -- more than 18 percent higher in the case of the Dow and more than 20 percent higher in the case of the Nasdaq Composite.

Until those levels have been surpassed, according to Edwards and Magee,"there is always the possibility that a second test (third bottom) may be necessary, or even a third, and that one of these will fail, with prices then breaking on down into further decline."

Are there any advance indications of a double bottom that we can be on the lookout for? Edwards and Magee provide us with very few. However, they do write that"the second bottom usually is conspicuously dull (little trading volume)."

Since NYSE volume was nearly 2 billion shares on Tuesday as the Dow broke below its July 23 closing low, and therefore hardly dull, advisers are on even shakier ground in being so ready to declare that the market has bottomed.

For more information or to subscribe to the Hulbert Financial Digest, click here.

Their eagerness is not surprising, however. As I pointed out in my September 20 column, advisers were quick to jump back onto the bullish bandwagon during the August rally. Their current attitude suggests that they are poised to do so again whenever the market rallies.

Contrarian analysis therefore suggests that this rally, whenever it occurs, will not meet with any better fate than did the August rally.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

-->>Massen der Börsenbriefschreiber in Bullenhitze...
>Advisers too eager for 'double bottom'
>By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
>Last Update: 12:03 AM ET Sept. 25, 2002
>
>ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- The question that dozens of investment newsletter editors have been pondering the past few days as the stock market has fallen back to its July lows: Would the stock market successfully pass its test of those lows, creating the bullish chart pattern known as a"double bottom"?
>The mere fact that so many advisers are asking this question suggests that they remain far too eager to declare this bear market to be over.
>If advisers were dispassionately analyzing the market's technical trends, instead of latching onto anything that even superficially justifies being bullish, then few of them would be talking about a double bottom. That's because genuine double bottom formations cannot be confirmed until well after they occur.
>NEWSLETTER CENTER
>To order more information on any of the 160 newsletters covered by the Hulbert Financial Digest, or the monthly digest itself, click here for a special offer.
>
>I refer to what the classic text on technical analysis,"Technical Analysis of Stock Trends," by Robert Edwards and John Magee, has to say about double bottoms: This formation"is referred to by name perhaps more often than any other chart pattern by traders who possess a smattering of technical 'lingo' but little organized knowledge of technical facts. True Double Tops and Double Bottoms are exceedingly rare... And the true patterns... can seldom be positively detected until prices have gone quite a long way from them. They can never be foretold, or identified as soon as they occur."
>In fact, according to Edwards and Magee, a double bottom is not confirmed until the rally off the second bottom surpasses the extent of the rally off the first bottom. In the current case, that means that -- even if the market were to rally from current levels -- advisers would not be justified in declaring the bear market to be over until it had surpassed its August highs.
>That's a long ways away -- more than 18 percent higher in the case of the Dow and more than 20 percent higher in the case of the Nasdaq Composite.
>Until those levels have been surpassed, according to Edwards and Magee,"there is always the possibility that a second test (third bottom) may be necessary, or even a third, and that one of these will fail, with prices then breaking on down into further decline."
>Are there any advance indications of a double bottom that we can be on the lookout for? Edwards and Magee provide us with very few. However, they do write that"the second bottom usually is conspicuously dull (little trading volume)."
>Since NYSE volume was nearly 2 billion shares on Tuesday as the Dow broke below its July 23 closing low, and therefore hardly dull, advisers are on even shakier ground in being so ready to declare that the market has bottomed.
>For more information or to subscribe to the Hulbert Financial Digest, click here.
>Their eagerness is not surprising, however. As I pointed out in my September 20 column, advisers were quick to jump back onto the bullish bandwagon during the August rally. Their current attitude suggests that they are poised to do so again whenever the market rallies.
>Contrarian analysis therefore suggests that this rally, whenever it occurs, will not meet with any better fate than did the August rally.
>Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.


So oder so es scheint besser zu sein eine neutrale Position einzunehmen