-->Vielleicht noch ein paar Tage Geplänkel
Nachher kommts aber faustdick.


<ul> ~ Link </ul>

-->>Vielleicht noch ein paar Tage Geplänkel
>Nachher kommts aber faustdick.

Der HUI ist der Wurmfortsatz vom Gold Index der sieht noch gut aus. Sollter er aber die nächsten Tage nicht anziehen, gehts erst mal runter.

-->>Vielleicht noch ein paar Tage Geplänkel
>Nachher kommts aber faustdick.


Zum Vergleich:
Das ähnliche Muster von IBM im Februar d.J.

(Ziel mit gut einem Monat Verspätung erreicht)

<ul> ~ link</ul>

-->We are basically inline with our last month’s outlook when we said that Gold would probably rally towards 326 and find an upper limit of the September’s trading range in that zone.

In daily “chart 1, panel 1” we see that Gold is currently struggling near the daily Bollinger resistance while the oscillator in “panel 2” slipped below a minor uptrend line. This technical environment implies a good chance for some short-term throwback. However, the constellation is not potent enough to expect a major reversal to the downside. Moving averages are mainly rising (see both charts) and we have no valid top formation at hand. In weekly “chart 2, panel 1” we highlighted once again the long-term downside channel formation with key resistance at roughly 350. Latter level is a potential upside target that we mentioned in several updates. On the other hand we can say that as long as this upside barrier is not decisively cleared, the long-term downtrend is still intact.

Conclusion:
Short-term downside retracement should find support in the 315-310 window from where an upside attempt to break the June top near 332 can follow. All in all we think that the uptrend is the prevailing medium-term direction; on the other hand the constellation look not aggressively bullish. So a “two steps forward, one and a half step backward-market” is likely to continue in October. Only a fall below 310 would frustrate this idea and probably indicate a sideways triangular consolidation pattern.

-->in Kürze die Würze:

Conclusion:
The short-term picture is rather vague. The 830-800 area should hold and provoke a rally back towards 970. But we need a move beyond the solid short-term resistance area near 875-890 to get a first valid sign for stabilization. Otherwise we still face the risk for unfavoured further downside extension to 730 before a big rally follows. Generally speaking we think that a decline towards the 61.8% global Fibonacci retracement near 600 out of this situation is quite unlikely. In our eyes this risk rises distinctly after a second failure near the 975-1000 region.


PS:
Werde am Wochenende meine Sicht noch darlegen.

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