-->(Druckfrisch:-))

(Price reference last newsletter USD 344.90)

The rally was stronger than initially anticipated as Gold overshot our 360 target, missing any consolidation phase within a prevailing medium-term uptrend.

On attached weekly “chart 1, panel 1” we see that the channel resistance “x” has been cleared decisively and this break can be considered a further positive element with regards to a longer-term perspective. However, the technical picture of Gold looks quite overstretched and demands some pause. In “chart 1, panel 2” we can observe that the oscillator is in overbought territory; a historical comparison (vertical lines) shows that a bigger downside correction out of such a situation is not a low probability scenario. The daily technical barometer in “chart 2, panel 2” looks similarly overstretched.

Conclusion:
Technically, Gold looks tired and we can reckon with a soon start of a downside retracement and consolidation phase that is likely to last for several weeks. 380 should cap the current rally and push the yellow metal back into the 350-340 support window. Such a retracement would correspond to previous bigger downside reactions (see A and B in “chart 2, panel 1”) but is be far from sufficient to reverse the clearly prevailing uptrend, characterized, among other elements, by rising