06.03.00, von Marty Weiner, Comstock Partners, Inc.:

"One thing we know from history is that when the public is involved in massive buying of financial assets in the secure knowledge that “this time it’s different” and that nothing can go wrong, that asset eventually collapses. It happened in 1929, in the go-go mutual fund era of 1968, the nifty-fifty craze of 1971-1972 and Japan in 1989. All of these instances were somewhat different,
but the two great constants, greed and fear remain - human nature does not change. When the public engages in a mass speculative orgy - which this certainly is - they never win and the ending is always unpleasant.


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>06.03.00, von Marty Weiner, Comstock Partners, Inc.:
>"One thing we know from history is that when the public is involved in massive buying of financial assets in the secure knowledge that “this time it’s different” and that nothing can go wrong, that asset eventually collapses. It happened in 1929, in the go-go mutual fund era of 1968, the nifty-fifty craze of 1971-1972 and Japan in 1989. All of these instances were somewhat different,
> but the two great constants, greed and fear remain - human nature does not change. When the public engages in a mass speculative orgy - which this certainly is - they never win and the ending is always unpleasant.


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Leider weiss niemand wann das eintritt. So lange die Liquiditaet von den
Zentralbanken so hoch gehalten wird und die Anleihezinsen vergleichsweise
niedrig sind,wird es keinen Crash geben. Greenspann huetet sich die Zinsen
zu erhoehen und wenn dann nur in Minischritten. Sollten die Amerikaner
anfangen ihre Fondanteile zurueckzugeben, so wird es wirklich kritisch.
Alle Grosskopfeten wollen das auf jeden Fall verhindern.
>>06.03.00, von Marty Weiner, Comstock Partners, Inc.:


>>"One thing we know from history is that when the public is involved in massive buying of financial assets in the secure knowledge that “this time it’s different” and that nothing can go wrong, that asset eventually collapses. It happened in 1929, in the go-go mutual fund era of 1968, the nifty-fifty craze of 1971-1972 and Japan in 1989. All of these instances were somewhat different,
>> but the two great constants, greed and fear remain - human nature does not change. When the public engages in a mass speculative orgy - which this certainly is - they never win and the ending is always unpleasant.


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"The market always looks at its best at the top"

Einige Leser meinen, es könne keine Baisse/ Crash geben, da fundamental ja alles in Ordnung sei und die FED wird das schon verhindern. Greenspan hat in seiner langen Karriere kein besonders gutes Gespür für zukünftige Entwicklungen bewiesen, von der LTCM Pleite ganz zu schweigen. Auf die FED und Greenspan würde ich mich also nicht verlassen.

Überigens ist 1929 der Markt ohne einen fundamentalen Grund zusammengebrochen. Auslöser war ganz einfach, das alle gleichzeitig verkaufen wollten.

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