-->Aus der NY Times:
His Face Still Gives Fits as Saddam Dinar Soars By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, NY Times BAGHDAD, Iraq, May 16 — Saddam Hussein may be out of power or even dead. But his maligned currency, the so-called Saddam dinar, has abruptly skyrocketed in value. In a display of what might be called Saddam's revenge, the discredited dinar soared by about one-third against the dollar on Thursday and is now at its highest value since 1996. Its remarkable comeback is likely to cause heartburn for American officials here, and not just because Iraq's currency of choice bears a portrait of the former dictator on every bill. A potentially bigger problem is that the dinar's surge and the dollar's plunge have wiped out a big part of the purchasing power of the $20 emergency payments American administrators have been handing out to workers in lieu of their unpaid monthly salaries. Iraqis, from police officers and teachers to government officials, are grumbling that the $20 was a poor substitute for the pay they have not received since March. But now, taking account of the dinar's total rise over the past month, the payment, which used to equal 40,000 dinars, is now worth about half that much."Prices in the market have not changed a bit," grumbled Sadiq al-Hamoundi, as he contemplated the diminished value of the $10 remaining from his wife's emergency payment."This isn't going to last another three days." Iraqis have a great deal of experience with exchange rates, despite Mr. Hussein's effort to maintain an official exchange rate at the absurdly overvalued level of $3 per dinar. On Kifah Street — the gritty and occasionally violent open-air meeting place for hundreds of currency traders and cigarette smugglers — the most prevalent theory for the dinar's startling surge was that the Americans did it to themselves by flooding the market with more dollars than people wanted to spend. With the Americans handing out $20 payments to several million Iraqi workers and preparing to give $40 to about one million pensioners, traders said they were essentially speculating on a looming saturation of dollars."If you have one million pensioners getting $40 apiece, that's $40 million coming onto the streets," said Ahmed Muhammad Ali, a trader on Kifah Street."What did you expect would happen?" Saddam dinars have defied expectations for some time. In the last days of Mr. Hussein's government, dinars sank to a low of more than 3,000 to the dollar, and American officials expected them to fade away into worthlessness. But after the war, defying expectations that Iraqis would want to dump dinars as fast they could, the dollar dropped back to 2,000 dinars and more recently to about 1,500. On Thursday, the dinar suddenly exploded in value and dealers refused to offer anything more than 1,000 dinars to the dollar — an increase of one-third in a single day — and some dealers were not paying more than 900. Iraqis' preference for the dinar comes despite the currency's inconvenience. The only denominations in use are the 250-dinar note, worth about 25 cents at current rates, and the 10,000-dinar note. Buying just a week's worth of groceries can require a three-inch-thick stack of 250-dinar notes, which is why upscale shops have bill-counting machines that flip through 100 bills in seconds. Because the central bank has not been able or willing to print extra supplies, the number of dinars in circulation, and hence their value, has remained stable. Further, as the thousands of foreigners working here began realizing the currency's resilience, they have been buying up dinars in ever larger quantities, adding to the demand. Some traders suspected another force at play, saying the dollar's plunge may have been aided by a huge release into the markets of money that looters stole from Iraq's banks and government ministries. There were also hints that one or another group of traders was trying to manipulate the system. Since Thursday, many currency exchange shops were refusing to sell dollars at anywhere near the prevalent rate of 1,000 to 1. The soaring dinar was Topic A today at Alaa Hussein's barbershop on Kharada Street, one of Baghdad's big shopping areas."It's an attempt by coalition forces to reduce inflation," one customer theorized. Another said it was a sign that Iraqis wanted to run their own lives. Still others recalled the last time Saddam dinars soared in value. That was in 1996, when a dollar was worth nearly 3,000 dinars. To prop up the dinar, Mr. Hussein ordered major government purchases of the currency as well as big sales of dollars. As a result, the exchange rate dropped to a mere 580 dinars per dollar. No such intervention appears to be under way today. But traders and ordinary shoppers alike are anxious about potential big swings."It's all based on rumors," said Rasheed Taheir, another customer in the barbershop."You had rumors when the currency collapsed, and rumors again now when it goes up. Nobody really knows what's going on."
Yahoo zum selben Thema:
As Iraqi dinar soars, purchasing power plunges
BAGHDAD (AFP) - The Iraqi dinar has soared by 23 percent against the dollar in just a few days, but the spike to levels not seen in six years has not been matched by a fall in prices.
The Iraqi currency, bearing the portrait of ousted leader Saddam Hussein, has been trading since Thursday at between 900 and 1,000 to the greenback -- its highest level since 1997.
The dollar bought 1,300 dinars on Wednesday, down from 3,500 just after the war, 4,000 during the war, and 1,800 before the US-led invasion kicked off on March 20.
The dinar's leap has been attributed to cash dollar injections by the US-headed administration, including emergency payments to civil servants that flooded the market with hard currency while the dinar is still required for everyday transactions.
And because there is no central bank keeping supply and demand in check,"the market is driven by rumours, perceptions and expectations," said economic analyst Fadhel Ali.
"There is a perception that there are too many dollars on the market, and there are expectations that more dollars are on their way."
In late April, the coalition began making emergency payments of 20 dollars per head to cash-strapped public sector workers, nearly none of whom had been paid since February.
According to coalition radio, pensioners are also to receive 40 dollars each from Sunday.
The payments, partially designed to help kickstart the economy, amount to tens of millions of dollars: the number of Iraqi public servants, including the military, is estimated at up to 2.5 million.
But some currency traders say the dollar's fall may also be owing to looters unloading stolen currency grabbed in the chaotic days that followed the fall of Baghdad.
"Those who have stolen dollars usually sell them below market price, this puts the dollar under constant pressure," noted one dealer.
Yet the dinar's rise has not translated into an easing of hardship in the city of five million people: with sanctions intact and foreign borders still closed, the cost of imported goods remain high.
"There is no travel, no imports, demand on the dollar is low. At the same time, the population needs dinars for the day-to-day consumption," said Ali.
Merchants, meanwhile, resist lowering prices to match the decreased value of the dollar.
"There is no guarantee the dinar will stay at this level, the market is running on pure speculation," said a grocer, Abdullah AbdulKarim.
Ali forecasts the currency fluctuations will soon spark a deep feeling of injustice among ordinary Iraqis, especially those depending on the 20 dollar handouts, which could be one-off payments.
"Twenty dollars means 20,000 dinars now. In late April, it meant 40,000 dinars," he said, adding that those with savings generally preferred to keep it in dollars to protect against sharp fluctuations seen after Iraq (news - web sites) was hit by international sanctions following Baghdad's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
Abeer Luays said she fixes each week with her husband, an engineer,"the dinar budget" that includes transportation and grocery items.
"Before, we needed 10 dollars a week, now it's 20," she said.
While the dinar is used as small change and for daily purchases such as food, dollars pay for larger expenses such as electronics, debt contracting and upscale restaurants.
Washington is now lobbying the UN Security Council to lift the sanctions, a move that would allow goods into Iraq and reduce inflationary pressure caused by the dollar injections, according to US officials here.
Was meinen wohl unsere Geld- und Falschgeldexperten dazu?
|
Thread-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht
Reihenfolge
Thread gesperrt
