US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan had some interesting things
to say about the oil markets in his speech today at the Cato Institute in
Washington, DC. Greenspan's remarks are available on the web at
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BoardDocs/Speeches/2000/200010192.htm
Here are a few excerpts:
"So it is with some irony that just as we are adapting our old-economy
models to the new realities, in drifts an apparition from the past--a spike
in oil prices that has potential implications for economic stability and for
monetary policy. The reemergence of oil prices as an important macroeconomic
consideration is a reminder that there is less of a stark division between
old and new economies than is often loosely suggested. Even the oil
industry, a presumed old-economy stalwart, is a surprisingly major player in
the new. As a consequence, policymakers will need to consider how changes in
technologies and world markets may have altered the response of our
economies to oil-price shocks and, thus, how best to respond to them."
"It would certainly seem that, with inventories building and the spot price
of crude oil well above its long-term equilibrium, spot prices would shortly
be under significant downward pressure. However, concerns about the
potential for political difficulties to impinge on available supplies
persist, as has been so evident over the past few weeks. Even before the
recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer
stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high. This owed largely to
the possibility of a politically driven removal of a significant part of
Iraq's 2-1/2 to 3 million barrels a day from global markets at a time when
there exists so little available world excess capacity to replace it."
"Even though the intensity of oil consumption is markedly below where it was
thirty years ago, it still has the potential to alter the forces governing
economic growth in the United States. To date, the spillover from the surge
in oil prices has been modest. Any effect on inflation expectations, at
least as inferred from the behavior of long-term Treasury Inflation-Indexed
Securities, has been virtually nil. Moreover, despite some slowing that
likely has been related in part to the bite from the so-called"oil tax" on
household incomes, the growth of consumer spending has remained firm. But
policymakers will need to be on the alert for oil-driven, indeed
energy-driven, risks to our expansion."
<center>
<HR>
</center> |
Thread-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht
Reihenfolge
Thread gesperrt
