-->

-->bei denen dürfte in den nächsten Tagen das Licht ausgehen....

Toby

-->>bei denen dürfte in den nächsten Tagen das Licht ausgehen....
>Toby

Bisher hatten wir nur einen Zinsanstieg, der die Spekulation aus dem Markt genommen hat. Man kann ja schließlich nicht jeden Tag von fallenden Renditen ausgehen. Was nun aber kommt wird das ganze System schon ziemlich belasten. So lange das tägliche Buch durch die Aktienkursgewinne komoensiert wird werden die Schieflagen vielleicht doch noch eine Weile verdeckt.

Warten wirs ab. Auf jeden Fall dachte man vor einigen Wochen ja noch, dass die Verschuldung kein Problem darstellen sollte. Nun sieht man, dass der Anleihenmarkt vollkommen überlastet ist.

Den Dollaranstieg in diesem Umfeld erkläre ich mir durch japanische Transaktionen. Die Japaner dürften nun wieder einen Gefallen an der US-Bond Verzinsung finden, zumindest jene die bei den Zinstiefs eher etwas weniger gekauft haben als sonst üblich.

-->>Den Dollaranstieg in diesem Umfeld erkläre ich mir durch japanische Transaktionen.

Andere Meinung: Es müssen bereits liquide Mittel repatriiert oder gar im Nichtdollarraum aufgenommen werden, um die Löcher zu stopfen.

>Die Japaner dürften nun wieder einen Gefallen an der US-Bond Verzinsung finden, zumindest jene die bei den Zinstiefs eher etwas weniger gekauft haben als sonst üblich.

Kaum. Die Japaner greifen nicht in fallende Messer. Was habe ich von einer Bondverzinsung von 5 %, wenn der Kurs in acht Wochen um 10 % fällt?

Gruß!

-->The U.S. national average 30-year mortgage rate soared above 6 percent this week, as a continued bond-market fall took its toll on interest rates. The last time the rate was above 6 percent was Dec. 19, 2002

Freddie Mac said Thursday that the 30-year, fixed loan hit 6.14 percent in the week ending Aug. 1, up from 5.94 percent a week earlier and nearly one full percentage point above the historic low of 5.21 percent reached June 12. Rates have not been this high since Dec. 5, 2002.

It was also the sixth consecutive week that rates have moved higher, following three months of nearly unbroken declines.

The national average rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinancing choice, rose to 5.44 percent from 5.27 percent a week earlier. The one-year, Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage barely moved however, edging up to 3.68 percent from 3.67 percent.

All three loans required the payment of an average 0.5 points to obtain those rates. A point is 1 percent of the loan amount, charged as prepaid interest

"Signs that the economy may have turned the corner led to slightly higher mortgage rates, and this will surely begin to slow the pace of refinancing as we go into the last quarter of the year," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. (FRE: news, chart, profile)

"With the recent uptick in fixed-rate mortgage rates, we are starting to see short-term mortgage rate products, like the one-year ARM, gain in popularity. Indeed, the ARM share of applications steadily increased over the last month to around 20 percent of applications last week," he said.

Mortgage refinancing activity dropped sharply following the spike in interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its applications index that measures refinancing fell more than 30 percent in the week ending July 25.

Mortgage-purchase applications, however, held up relatively well, falling only 4 percent from a week earlier. Overall, applications dropped by just over 24 percent.

"The drop in overall applications is due almost entirely to the very large drop in refinance activity. The level of applications to purchase homes showed only a modest drop and is still near all-time highs," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's vice president of research and economics.

"Refinance applications have fallen to the lowest level seen this year and are down more than 50 percent from where they were just four weeks ago -- not surprising given the sharp increase in rates since mid-June," he said.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.4 percent of total applications, from 68.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 20.6 percent from 16.7 percent the previous week as borrowers opted for the lower rates offered initially on ARMs.

The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the MBA survey increased to 5.87 percent from 5.72 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.64 from 1.53 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans. The MBA survey covers about 40 percent of the U.S. mortgage market.



<ul> ~ Mortgage rates top 6%</ul>

-->>The U.S. national average 30-year mortgage rate soared above 6 percent this week, as a continued bond-market fall took its toll on interest rates. The last time the rate was above 6 percent was Dec. 19, 2002
>Freddie Mac said Thursday that the 30-year, fixed loan hit 6.14 percent in the week ending Aug. 1, up from 5.94 percent a week earlier and nearly one full percentage point above the historic low of 5.21 percent reached June 12. Rates have not been this high since Dec. 5, 2002.
>It was also the sixth consecutive week that rates have moved higher, following three months of nearly unbroken declines.
>The national average rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinancing choice, rose to 5.44 percent from 5.27 percent a week earlier. The one-year, Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage barely moved however, edging up to 3.68 percent from 3.67 percent.
>All three loans required the payment of an average 0.5 points to obtain those rates. A point is 1 percent of the loan amount, charged as prepaid interest
>"Signs that the economy may have turned the corner led to slightly higher mortgage rates, and this will surely begin to slow the pace of refinancing as we go into the last quarter of the year," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. (FRE: news, chart, profile)
>"With the recent uptick in fixed-rate mortgage rates, we are starting to see short-term mortgage rate products, like the one-year ARM, gain in popularity. Indeed, the ARM share of applications steadily increased over the last month to around 20 percent of applications last week," he said.
>Mortgage refinancing activity dropped sharply following the spike in interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its applications index that measures refinancing fell more than 30 percent in the week ending July 25.
>Mortgage-purchase applications, however, held up relatively well, falling only 4 percent from a week earlier. Overall, applications dropped by just over 24 percent.
>"The drop in overall applications is due almost entirely to the very large drop in refinance activity. The level of applications to purchase homes showed only a modest drop and is still near all-time highs," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's vice president of research and economics.
>"Refinance applications have fallen to the lowest level seen this year and are down more than 50 percent from where they were just four weeks ago -- not surprising given the sharp increase in rates since mid-June," he said.
>The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.4 percent of total applications, from 68.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 20.6 percent from 16.7 percent the previous week as borrowers opted for the lower rates offered initially on ARMs.
>The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the MBA survey increased to 5.87 percent from 5.72 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.64 from 1.53 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans. The MBA survey covers about 40 percent of the U.S. mortgage market.

-->>Kaum. Die Japaner greifen nicht in fallende Messer. Was habe ich von einer Bondverzinsung von 5 %, wenn der Kurs in acht Wochen um 10 % fällt?
>Gruß!

Stimmt natürlich, aber das hat die Japaner nicht immer gestört. Zumindest kann die ZB munter weiter kaufen und schlägt zwei Fliegen mit einer Klappe.

-->>>Den Dollaranstieg in diesem Umfeld erkläre ich mir durch japanische Transaktionen.
>Andere Meinung: Es müssen bereits liquide Mittel repatriiert oder gar im Nichtdollarraum aufgenommen werden, um die Löcher zu stopfen.

Verstehe ich nicht. Wer ist"Es". Sprichst Du jetzt von Bonds oder doch vom Dollar?

Chiron

-->>>>Den Dollaranstieg in diesem Umfeld erkläre ich mir durch japanische Transaktionen.
>>Andere Meinung: Es müssen bereits liquide Mittel repatriiert oder gar im Nichtdollarraum aufgenommen werden, um die Löcher zu stopfen.
>Verstehe ich nicht. Wer ist"Es". Sprichst Du jetzt von Bonds oder doch vom Dollar?
>Chiron

Hi chiron,

wir glauben immer, dass es a priori etwas"Positives" gibt, das dann hin und hergeschoben wird. Tatsächlich gibt es immer"Negatives", d.h."Löcher" (konkret: Zahlungsverpflichtungen).

Tun sich also drüben wg. Bond-Markt"Löcher" auf, müssen diese gestopft werden. Dazu beleiht man noch nicht fällige Titel / Guthaben ("repatriiert" sie) oder nimmt neue Kredite auf.

Diese in Fremdwährung und die werden dann in Dollar gewechselt, das dessen Kurs"erhöht", womit die Ursache des höheren Dollarkurses die zu stopfenden Löcher (Verluste) am Bondmarkt (drüben in Dollar) wären.

So besser?

Gruß!