-->Sornette und sein Zögling Zhou haben neulich eine Studie zu den Real Estate Bubbles publiziert, die sehr interessant ist. (Im Detail bzw mathematisch verstehe ich natürlich kein Wort.)
Sie kommen zum Schluss, dass in den USA keine eigentliche Immobilien-Bubble existiert, jedoch sehr wohl in UK, bound to *platz* gegen Ende Jahr.
Die Konklusion lautet folgendermassen:
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"Conclusion
Testifying before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Af-
fairs in July 2002, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told
lawmakers that rising home prices in the USA are a by-product of “low mort-
gage rates, immigration, and shortages of buildable land in some areas.” As
a result, homeowners have more equity they can use to pay off high-cost con-
sumer debt and for other purposes. This leads to a beneficial effect on the US
economy rather than suggesting the possibility of a real estate crash.
Based on the science of complexity, our analysis provides a confirmation of
this conclusion derived from more standard economic analysis.
The situation is the opposite for the UK market. Our same analysis applied
to the UK real estate market shows two unambiguous signatures of an unsus-
tainable bubble, which started years even before the end of the stock market
bubble in 2000. These signatures have been found to be reliable predictors
of past crashes in financial markets. The analysis points to the end of the
bubble around the end of the year 2003, with either a crash or a change of
direction in the UK housing market. While there are very strong correlations
between stock markets in developed countries at present [11], no such corre-
lation has yet materialized in real estate markets. Investors should however
remain watchful for indications of a possible contagions to the US in the longer
term.
To summarize, what we have learned in this paper is that (i) the USA real
estate market is in a state compatible with “rational expectation” regime; (ii)
the UK real-estate market exhibits an ultimately unsustainable speculative
bubble; (iii) The UK house prices will continue going up during the year 2003;
and (iv) The Weierstrass-type function (3) outperforms the simple log-periodic
power law formula."
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Ganze Abhandlung hier:
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0303/0303028.pdf
Sornette wurde auf diesem Board von „Hans Castorp“ vor über zwei Jahren unter dem Titel „Econophysics“ eingeführt. Damals kannte ihn noch kaum einer. Mittlerweile hat sich das geändert. Der Bursch hat ein Buch geschrieben und veröffentlicht monatlich seine US Stock Market Predictions, die auf seinen mathematischen Modellen basieren (jeweils kurz nach Mitte Monat).
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp
Die Charts sprechen für sich, müssten jetzt aber noch eintreffen, damit man seine Arbeit wirklich beurteilen kann.
Liebe Grüsse
Toni
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