-->Fazit:

Kommt Big Allen und die Konjunkturdaten kühlen sich wieder etwas ab könnten wir nochmal gerettet werden. Der große Bondcrach steht wahrscheinlich noch nicht bevor. ABER es gab m.E. nach ein enormes Fehlentwicklung in den Aktienbewertungen. Der gefürchtete Bondmarktcrash kommt hier gerade Recht. Außerdem ist es gut, dass die corporate issuers wieder etwas an die kurze Leine genommen werden. Das war ja schon verbrecherisch was da im ersten Halbjahr an Emissionen abging...


Reuters
U.S. agency debt ends dismal week still vulnerable
Friday August 1, 3:49 pm ET
By Lynn Adler


(Updates with closing levels, adds analyst quotes)
NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Buying at deeply depressed
prices yanked U.S. agency debt up to recover much of Friday's
early sweeping losses, but many players were wary of
declaring the recent freefall over, agency strategists said.
Most agency yield spreads, battered in recent days from
mortgage hedging that pounded Treasuries and sharply widened
swap spreads, were wider by seven basis points or less late
Friday.
Spreads, whipsawed by key economic reports, spiked as
much as 14 basis points in the morning in the largest daily
move in several years, traders and strategists said.
"The volatility is not going to go away soon until we
stabilize in rates," said Ron D'Vari, fixed income research
director at State Street Research in Boston.
"We're going through some huge moves in the markets, and
the markets have as usual proven themselves not capable of
smoothly handling those moves," he said."We need some real
money support. You need the outsiders to come back in."
D'Vari said he is buying agencies and mortgages after the
plunge in those sectors and Treasuries that widened
intermediate agency spreads by more than 25 basis points in the
past two weeks.
Treasury 10-year note yields, which leaped as high as 4.59
percent early Friday after relatively healthy economic news,
rebounded to 4.41 percent late in the session. The catalyst for
the pop was a U.S. manufacturing report that was not as robust
as some market players had expected it would be.
The Institute for Supply Management's July manufacturing
index rose to 51.8 from 49.8 in June, in line with earlier
forecasts.
Swap spreads, a driving factor in the agency market's
recent dour performance, also gained ground after an initial
sharp widening.
Both agency and swap spreads remain considerably wider on
the week, however.
Mortgage holders were forced to dump debt like Treasuries,
agencies and swaps to hedge portfolios as interest rates sprint
higher. Traders worried that large portfolios would start
liquidating positions.
Agency and swap spreads are closely linked.
In a vicious cycle, hedge selling yanks rates higher,
further extending the life of mortgage portfolios
beyond expectations, triggering even more hedge selling.
"Every move that we get, whether to the upside or the
downside, is just so dramatic, and I think these definitely get
exacerbated by all of the hedging that goes on in relation to
the mortgage market," said Nancy Vanden Houten, analyst at
Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.
Mortgage debt is"an enormous market, and it creates a
situation where when rates rise, certain hedging activities
take place that cause rates to rise more and then more hedging
takes place," she said."It causes things to go in a vicious
cycle."
Treasury 10-year notes, a peg for mortgage rates, have
surged since digging out a fresh 45-year low of 3.07
percent in June.
"Everything happening now is swaps related, stemming from
extension fears in the mortgage market," said Rajiv Setia,
fixed-income strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co."The ferocity is
a function of how negatively convexed that market is... and
how it dominates."
In one example of the agency market's unraveling, Fannie
Mae five-year notes of August 2008, which were sold on July 23,
yielded about 61 basis points more than Treasuries.
That spread was 6.5 basis points higher on the day, but
well below the spread of 66 basis points earlier in the
morning. Still, the spread hurdled past the 36.5 basis points
at which Fannie Mae first sold the notes.
In early June, Fannie Mae five-year notes traded as tight
as 19 basis points, about one-third of the current spread.

-->seit Tony B. dort regiert lassen die Tommies scheint's auf allen Ebenen gewaltig nach. Wär die Schlagzeile in der FTD erschienen, hätte ich gesagt 'Sei's drum,
die konnten's eh nie besser'.

im Vgl. hierzu eine e-mail eines Bond eines Bond-Trader-Veteranen, zitiert von
Fleckenstein in seinem aktuellen 'Chronicle' ( es geht um die Frage, wo bzw. wann die Leichen des Bondmassakers angeschwemmt werden )

"Dead bodies are hiding behind the Mark to Market. The curve has killed all the wise guys as the two- to 10-year spread went out 70 in the last few weeks. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are staggering nightmares, and I think the Fed is buying their paper on the open market. You see what Lehman Brothers did, bought Neuberger to"lower profile in bonds" where they can't make any money. Look at Merrill's earnings 57% from proprietary trading, meaning carry trade! Look at the footings of LEH, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase. They are staggering. They all are on one side of the trade. Institutions can't get out now because Wall Street is not bidding, and what is coming down the road is the most violent bond market you will ever see.[p]

I got out because they did not need smart salesmen. The SEC has changed the rules. There is a new trading system called Market Access. Gives bond prices transparency, and every idea I gave out had to be put in competition. It is over for bonds. Bill Gross has nowhere to sell his bonds because Wall Street is now going to be his enemy. He has to put his stuff on Market Access, and Wall Street is going to front-run it all. I will add more later, but rates are going up a ton. I see 6% 10-year notes by December. There is no money for the Treasury. They have worn out the welcome this time. But dead bodies? Not for a while. The Fed and Treasury will cover it up as long as possible. LTCM is going to look like a hiccup.[p]

The key is liquidity. There is none, which is why I am shocked the dopes at Treasury did not offer $30 billion 30-year bonds. They have no clue. Bond management is now a race among the mediocre. Indexing and consultants have forced even the smart guys to capitulate and buy stuff that makes them gag. It is going to evolve into a lemming mentality. And the moves are going to be enormous. Look, the long bond contract fell what, 18 points in a month? That is real money. But you still have an economy that is not borrowing, and you can't make people borrow. Going to get wild. If we don't have a depression caused by enormous debt defaults, the other side is gold at $3,000 an ounce."
<ul> ~ Bond yields rise as recovery hopes strengthen</ul>

-->>If we don't have a depression caused by enormous debt defaults, the other side is gold at $3,000 an ounce."

Warum sollte man an"enourmous debt defaults" zweifeln?

-->der FT-Artikel ist ausschliesslich im Link.

Der kopierte englische Text stammt von besagtem Bond-Trader zwecks Verdeutlichung des Gegensatzes zu dem FT-Artikel.

-->Hi,

das bitte auf der Zunge zergehen lassen:

"The bursting of the bond market bubble has been matched by the strongest weekly
rise in the dollar for two years. The dollar climbed 2.5 per cent against the euro,
ending the week at $1.1268. Since its low for the year in mid-June, the dollar has
rebounded by 6 per cent against the euro."

Damit erledigt sich so manches:

1. Es würden immer nur"Positiv"-Positionen geswitcht (Bonds in Aktien, Kommoden in Bonds oder Aktien, usw.)

2. Beim Crash von US-Finanztieln muss der Dollar fallen.

3. Ãœbers Gold sage ich lieber nichts.

Es geht im wirklichen Leben leider nicht um Aktivtauschen. Und da jeder Aktiva hat, müsse es in ein immerwährendes"gegenseitiges Hochtauschen" münden.

Leider geht's immer um Fälligkeiten bzw. das Stopfen von"Löchern". Die Passivseiten regieren die Welt der Wirtschaft.

Never think in assets, always think in liabilities!

Gruß!