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Sinister Silent Attack on Gold
By: Sol, Tactical Investor

A very sinister piece of news has made almost no headlines It is a piece of
legislation that has been passed by the Senate and is just waiting for House
approval, which most likely will be certain.
I took this excerpt from Forbes
“The Journal's coverage of the tax measure focuses on a provision to allow
U.S. multinationals a one-year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a
reduced tax rate of 5.25%, instead of the current 35% rate. The bill would
also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working overseas.”
Full story http://www.forbes.com/2003/05/16/cx_da_0516topnews_print.html
If you did not get the implication of that message, let me elaborate on it.
First, by allowing US multinationals to repatriate their earrings back to the
US at a rate of 5.25% is tantamount to a 29% across the board cut in Taxes,
which will more than push them to come to the US. This 29% break more than
makes up for the current devaluation in the dollar. Who would not take such an
offer? Its basically free money.
Now here is where the situation gets sticky. In order to repatriate that money
the multinationals have to change from whatever currency they are currently
holding to the US ollar, effectively they will be buying the US dollar and
dumping their local currency.
This will have the effect of suddenly propping up and giving the US dollar
strength, and as the dollars starts to gain, Gold will definitely be its
victim. So it’s highly likely that Gold’s upward trajectory will be
momentarily halted and that the day of reckoning will be postponed till after
2004.
Not only will the multinationals benefit from the 29% break, but they will
also benefit as the US dollar starts to gain strength. Notice how this
provision is only effective for one year, which coincides perfectly with the
coming elections. The companies who take advantage of this offer early will be
able to make another 10-15% gains as the currency appreciates, so in total
they stand to gain upwards of 39%.
Based on this information, I have to recommend that individuals who have two
gold portfolios (trading and long term) take precautionary measures and take
profits from their trading portfolio’s as Gold is going to run into some
potentially very strong resistance soon. We, at the Tactical Investor, have
already advised our subscribers to take profits and will be sitting and
watching this situation closely.
Also, if you look at this chart that I put up in my last update of the Gold
and the Dow you notice that the Dow is gaining on Gold once more. Could it be
the markets see something that most of us are missing? You be the judge
You can see now the channel formation very clearly from early 2003; the Dow
has actually been winning the battle and is at a critical point. This
legislation might be all that the Dow needs now to go and challenge the old
high levels where it took 35-40oz to buy the Dow.
I am going to zoom in on this chart.
First of all, you can see the Dow has been gaining on Gold since Feb 2003,
about the same time that Gold started loosing value in terms of the Rand
(which I currently believe is the world’s best performing currency). We are
also in the process of completing a wedge. The moment we break through this
wedge the price action should be explosive and now with this new piece of
legislation we are all but assured that this move will take place
What should you do?
Well almost all the Gold bugs and smart investors who got in early should be
sitting on some profits so it won’t hurt to take a little of the table, but by
no means sell out all your positions. We have told our subscribers to take
profits in their smaller trading portfolios but to hold their long-term
portfolios. When and if Gold does pull back here and should it get to the
point where it takes 35-40oz to buy the Dow, I would view this as a mouth
watering opportunity to load up on gold shares and Gold bullion. My trusted
associate and Pal John Tyler from the www.infognome.com has this to say.
The machinations behind this move run deep and are open to several
interpretations.
The rate of M3 growth sank, and the whole system is devouring dollars with an
unquenchable thirst. The Fed needs to keep liquidity in the domestic economy,
and this move can be seen as just that. It is another shift of the The
Titanic’s deck chairs. The band plays on; the ship appears unsinkable.
Is this bill the lifeboat that US business needs before the dollar is allowed
to FALL to ITS REAL VALUE? There is off course one strategy to deal with the
twin risks of a plummeting dollar and inflation. SOS - Save Our Savings - and
get some gold! Use any weakness to build positions for the secular gold bull
market!


http://news.goldseek.com/TacticalInvestor/1068245901.php


lg

siggi











Antworten:




[ Börsenforum - Butterfly-Charts - Dow Jones ]

-->und ich betrachte diese US-Absichten als den letzten Pfeil im Köcher, den
US-Dollar eher später als früher kollabieren zu lassen (Wiederwahl Bush 2004).


Nur die Finanz-Chefs sind auch nicht allesamt Voll-Trottel, um den versteckten
Deal nicht zu sehen. Was nützt ihnen eine Tax-Vergünstigung von 25 - 30% wenn
sie ihre Hart-Währung in einen weichen Dollar umtauschen, welcher dann in 6 -
12 Monaten um soviel abschmiert.


Ich meine für die Smarties müsste es möglich sein, ihre Ausland-Guthaben zu
repatrieren, und nach erfolger Heimschaffung gleich wieder Fremd-Währungen
zu kaufen. Ist heute auf Grund der Termin-Märkte ein Kinderspiel.

Aber der Gold-Besitzer merkt doch, dass die in Washington aus dem letzten
Loch pfeifen, und sie durschauen den Trick längstens. Es wäre nicht das erste
Mal, dass eine solche staatlich verordnete Offerte gerade das Gegenteil
bewirkt.

Ich meine auch mit diesen unehrlichen Absichten, wird es sich längstens lohnen
im Gold zu bleiben, bzw. die Minen-Aktien bei kurzfristigen Rückschlägen wieder
anzahlmässig zu erhöhen.

Emerald.

PS: There is no shame: Gold will be the game.

-->vielen Dank für Deine Stellungnahme.

Ich fürchte allerdings, daß gerade wegen der auch von Dir angesprochenen Wiederwahl Bush, wir noch mit mit Sachen zu rechnen haben, die wir uns bislang gar nicht vorstellen können. Dafür ist von den interessierten Kreisen in USA schon zu viel Geld in die Sache gesteckt worden. Das schreiben die nicht so einfach und ohne Gegenwehr ab.

lg

siggi

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--> Sunday, November 09, 2003, 9:05:00 PM EST

COT Trots Out Trojan For Last Time?

Author: Jim Sinclair




Inadvertently, I believe, but still detrimental to the Gold Community at large, is the latest Trojan horse to be rolled out of the COT stable.

It appeared in a Gold Eagle article by Sol Palha who quotes Forbes as saying, “The Journal’s coverage of tax matters focuses on a provision to allow US multinationals a one year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25% instead of the current 35% rate. The bill will also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working abroad.”
The article goes on to interpret this tax loophole as a means of bulling the dollar higher into the 2004 election. After carefully laying the foundation for his follow-up recommendation, Palha advises his clients to sell gold and gold shares.
I already answered this issue in detail in last week’s article, “Jim Answers Richard Russell’s Question.” However, because I am receiving “Emergency” communications from terrified Gold Community members, I will again give you the skinny on what this really is and its potential impact on gold.
This tax legislation is a purely pork barrel effort designed to benefit select recipients before the 2004 election. (Nothing really new here!). However, this particular effort is being seriously misinterpreted by the writer and is not significantly dollar positive or gold negative in the least. Here’s why”
&#61623; The amount of funds that can be affected by this legislation are estimated at $150 billion to $300 billion.
&#61623; These funds would trade in the inter-bank market for currency.
&#61623; Money repatriated in a legal tax laundry loophole can be expatriated the next day, zeroing the slight impact the trade might have.
&#61623; The size of the inter-bank market for currency is estimated by the Saint Louis Federal Reserve at one trillion dollars per day. So what is the big deal about even $300 billion over 365 days?
&#61623; The writer may not know it, but tax treaties exist between the US and almost every major economy in the world. Under these tax treaties, double taxation is significantly modified by making the taxes paid to one nation deductible from US taxes. Because of this, the effective rate in this type of a situation is far from 35%.
So the arithmetic of this legislation is intriguing as it is with any other legislation proposed by this administration. It leads me to believe that some US Fat Cats are getting a gift in this pork barrel tax bill that will allow them to repatriate funds that in fact might not be taxed at all but is needed here in the US.
Keep in mind that the Grand Cayman Islands has a Zero tax rate so funds there have been taxed but at the zero rate. My financial detective sense of “follow the politically favored money” makes this special interest pork barrel tax bill smell like a tax laundering mechanism.
One thing this tax bill is NOT is dollar bullish and gold bearish. So forget the nonsense making the rounds in the Gold Community and get ready for the real play in gold that’s coming soon to a theatre near you.
Beware of the self-styled “gold experts” with no experience in foreign exchange markets or any other market for that matter. Intellectual knowledge is dangerous when it’s laid upon the real world of trading.
Analytical knowledge is good but those that have it in many cases simply do not understand the mechanics of markets and often get lost because of their inexperience. Generally half- experienced geniuses become half-assed advisors.



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