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Michael Belkin

http://www.thestreet.com/pf/funds/supermodels/10121439.html

Exerpts:

Most independent researchers build careers as all-bull or all-bear, but not this guy. Operating out of a home office on Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound near Seattle, Belkin writes a $36,000-per-year weekly report on equities, bonds and commodities for leading managers of mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds worldwide. The report rises above the straitjacket of specialization to treat the global landscape holistically as an interlocking economic, political and social system.

Two weeks ago, Belkin abandoned his yearlong (and initially very lonely) bullish posture and put on the fur. He expects the broad market indices to sink significantly through the end of the year, led by cyclical industrial stocks, and does not see much of a recovery on the horizon for 2004.

The way Belkin sees it, we're"at the end of a liquidity bubble." Liquidity is analyst-speak for money, particularly dollars that the Federal Reserve prints and pushes into banks in a variety of ways for a variety of economic, political and social purposes. ("When the Fed makes new money, it's like counterfeiting, only it's legal," he quips.) He learned long ago that it made sense to buy into a liquidity bubble while it's happening, but that you needed to be able to identify its final days and get out a little early.


Amigos: jetzt geht's wieder los!

Emerald.

-->36.000 USD sind zwar für einen reinen Informationsservice leicht inflationär, aber dafür lag er auch immer mal richtig ;-)

Why take him seriously? He has caught the last few major swings exactly right.
In mid-1999, he advised clients to buy into the Nasdaq ($COMPX) bubble through the first quarter of 2000, noting that the Federal Reserve had printed so many billions of dollars to battle a non-existent Y2k problem that money would spill into stocks and fuel a boom. Check.

On March 2, 2000, he turned around and advised clients to bail out of tech stocks and buy U.S. government bonds, contending big market indexes could get cut in half. Check.

A month later, after the Nasdaq had plunged 1,000 points from its March 20 peak, he stunned clients who thought the worst damage had already been done by proclaiming the tech-heavy index would sink at least another 65%. Check.

Flash forward to November 2002. After the Nasdaq had fallen about 70%, he turned full circle and advised clients to aggressively buy the most-volatile tech and gold stocks, sell low-volatility defensive stocks and sell bonds. Check, check, check and check.

<ul> ~ http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P62345.asp</ul>