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-->Fact report:
Chinese Jan crude oil imports at a record 10.3 million metric tons, up 10% from December. A recent government forecast suggested imports this year could total 110-120 million tons, up from 91 million tons in 2003. 2003 was 31% higher than 2002 Crude oil imports.


Not only has China and several other countries imported deflation into the United States, they will now the number one reason why we are going to see very strong inflation.....in some areas of the economy.
I totally understand your thoughts on deflation. That too will occur.....in some areas of the economy.
I believe it is highly likely we could see a inflationary recession for the remainder of this decade.
The commodity flame is not going to go away for years. Why is that you ask? Because the commodity thing is REAL. Just about every single commodity that is produced world wide is in short supply.

According to someone I read, they said that it was extremely probable, according to his work, that a 100 year low was due in the CRB index. The due date was 10-15-2001. He missed it by a week.
China as well as several other countries have shown, and are showing what happens when vast economies kick into high gear. They are dramatically improving their standard of living. They need more of everything, and they start with raw materials; all kinds of them.

China has demonstrated already what they need. Look at the petroleum figures, then look at soybean prices and how many they have purchased as one perfect example of what is happening. You might want to glance at all the other stuff they need and are buying world wide.

China started buying wheat this week, a lot of it and they need more. And oh by the way, the South American soybean crop isn't doing so well.

Inflationary Recession.

Higher cost in most areas, usually in the things you can't be without like; FOOD. Less income to buy it with.
I witnessed a very large section of our economy, Agriculture, go through many years of cost increases and income decreases. I witnessed cost increases of 7-9% annually (and that was being cost conscience) for 3+ years in a row plus, with a string of nearly 7 years of declining income.

Agriculture went through it for nearly a decade. The rest of the economy will most likely go through it now and agriculture will do well for several years.

I hope the opening fact gets your attention.

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Cozad, Nebraska'