-->Eine schöne Zusammenfassung der US-Marktlage. Der Druck im Kessel steigt weiter!

...olé...

Gruss

sam


[Zitat]
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The world’s economies and financial markets are awash with debt, especially the U.S. and Japan. Everyone is playing the carry trade made possible by the lowest interest rates in half a century. Banks are borrowing short and lending long. Hedge funds are still leveraged with short-term money while investment portfolios are long. Homeowners have borrowed short-term and invested long-term in their homes. The Fed will begin a rate raising cycle that may not last long if the economy rolls over, the market collapses, or if the U.S. gets hit by another terrorist attack. Because the U.S. economy and our financial markets have become so leveraged, the Fed will have no choice but to go slow. This means that the U.S. economy will experience negative real interest rates for a long time to come. That translates into higher rates of inflation. Our total debt now stands at $37 trillion. Our unfunded liabilities (pensions, Social Security, and Medicare) are now approaching $55 trillion. There is simply too much debt that will have to be inflated away. Whole swaths of the U.S. economy have been reflated by easy access to credit. The U.S. economy may no longer be a manufacturing powerhouse, but it is a powerhouse in its ability to manufacture credit.

Companies, consumers, and investors are going to have to cope with higher inflation rates. This also implies collapsing values for anything associated with credit from autos and luxury goods to real estate. While there remains many similarities of today’s markets to the 1970s, there are also differences. One is that the U.S. imports more energy than it did during the 1970s. We are also heading towards peak oil production. The higher oil prices of the 70’s were a geopolitical concern. Today they are geological as well as geopolitical. There is less aboveground stockpiles of commodities. Our energy and commodity infrastructure, the basis of a modern industrial society has been ignored and allowed to go into disrepair. New energy and alternative energy sources will take time to find and develop. That is why commodity prices will only head higher in the years ahead. It is why Pimco has started a commodity fund. It is why investors such as Steve Leuthold is buying commodities and storing them in warehouses. It is also why the smart money has been moving into gold, silver, commodities and foreign currencies and hard assets. The Fed is behind the yield curve and so is Wall Street. It is time to get real as in owning real assets. The time is now before the stampede begins or the unraveling unfolds.

[Zitat ende]


<ul> ~ THE UNRAVELING</ul>