Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - US - Household Debt Service Ratios

marsch

10.07.2004, 09:55

US - Household Debt Service Ratios

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But despite record levels of refinancing - and despite the central bank’s decision to keep its target federal funds rate at the lowest level since the late 1950s (with the inflation-adjusted policy rate hovering in negative territory) - household debt service burdens have reached and remained at an alltime high in the Bush II Administration after declining in the mid-1990s (see Table 3).

Table 3: Household Debt Service Ratios [percentages]
Quarterly Average <table BORDER CELLPADDING=4 WIDTH="700" > <tr> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="24%"> <center> </center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>Q1 1981-
Q4 1983</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>Q1 1985-
Q4 1987</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>Q1 1989-
Q4 1991</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>Q1 1993-
Q4 1995</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>Q1 1997-
Q4 1999</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>Q1 2001-
Q4 2003</center> </td> </tr> <tr> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="24%">Debt Service Ratio1</td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>10.66</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>11.93</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>11.89</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>11.20</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>12.21</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>13.21</center> </td> </tr> <tr> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="24%">Financial Obligation Ratio2</td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>15.55</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>17.17</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>17.17</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>16.63</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>17.65</center> </td> <td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="13%"> <center>18.54</center> </td> </tr> </table> 1 Payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt as a percentage of disposable personal income.
2 Payments on outstanding mortgage debt, consumer debt, automobile leases, housing rent, homeowners’ insurance and property
taxes as a percentage of disposable personal income.

During the first three years of President Bush’s tenure, the quarterly ratio of household debt payments to disposable income averaged a full percentage point higher than in any of the corresponding periods for which data are available.* Though seemingly small, this additional percentage point represents a substantial weight on many borrowers. If applied to disposable income for the fourth quarter of 2003, for example, an additional 100 basis points of debt service equals $83.6 billion - approximately $800 for each U.S. household, or just about the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced house in 2003.

After declining slightly in each of the first three quarters of 2003, households’ debt service ratio rose by 10 basis points during the fourth quarter of the year. (The broader financial obligations ratio followed a similar trajectory, rising by 11bp between October and December). Since the beginning of 2001, the debt service ratio has never fallen below 12.98 percent in a quarter; in the previous 80 quarters for which data are available, the ratio never exceeded 12.86 percent and topped 12.50 percent on only three occasions.
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http://www.fmcenter.org/PDF/fofbrief_061004.pdf

Längerfristig sieht das so aus (letzte Daten von Sept. 03):

HIERzu sehen!

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