--> Da hier ja anscheinend Elliottwellen immer seltener diskutiert werden, ein kleiner Beitrag, der gerade in meiner Mailbox landete.
Ja, der Oldy meldet sich wieder einmal bei den Goldbugs. Was sagt ihr zur Medienaufmerksamkeit, die in letzter Zeit sein Regiogeld bekommt?
----- Original Message -----
From: customerservice@elliottwave.com
To: Hans Eisenkolb
Sent: Friday, October 22, 2004 2:58 PM
Subject: Club EWI: Dow Hits a New Low. Now What?
Dear Wavers,
I sent the following email to you yesterday. If you've already read it, please ignore this email. But given today's market action, I wanted to make sure that you didn't miss this important message.
Vadim
___________
Dear Wavers,
You should see what a beautiful autumn weather we’ve been having here in Gainesville. I can’t stop gazing through my office window. Fall is here, and it’s quieting everything down. On a day like this, work is the last thing on my mind (shhhh...)
But they don’t keep me here to stare at the clouds, so... back to business. Here’s an email from a subscriber that came across my desk yesterday:
“I have been following your service for a few months now, and I’m astounded by your knowledge and accuracy. I have been in the markets for years and certainly have taken my ups and downs, as expected. However, what Steve [Hochberg] and Bob [Prechter] have put together is SO MUCH MORE than a “buy and sell” service. It’s a worldwide daily sentiment pulse reading. I have told everyone I know about the service and the [Conquer the Crash] book.
“Your recent calls on the S&P’s top were not only eerily correct, they were also very informative on why you were making your assumptions. I am a large real estate owner in the NYC area, and I would NEVER, EVER trade the stock or futures market again without first reading your daily thoughts three times a week.
“P.S. - Your Interim Report on October 04 was better than a John Grisham novel. You guys are the real deal! Thanks, cm.”
This email got me thinking about an interview that Bob Prechter gave recently to The South China Post. Bob published it in his latest Elliott Wave Theorist. Here’s an excerpt:
“Where do you find the moral courage to stand up in the face of global financial industry that doubts the conclusions and the very premise of your work?” - asks the interviewer.
“It’s a strain,” says Bob. “But it’s impossible to be correct on a major trend change unless the majority views your outlook as wrong. [Think about this one!] That doesn’t mean your outlook will come to pass, but it is a prerequisite. I suppose it is difficult for people who value fitting in with the crowd more than the integrity of their own work. But people like that shouldn’t be in the forecasting business. It is always a fight and a struggle. Our business is analyzing and forecasting social mood, which means that if you identify an extreme of optimism or pessimism, by definition the vast majority of people disagrees with you. It is sort of a losing situation, frankly, because the people who really get rich in this business write bullish books near the end of an uptrend and bearish books near the end of a downtrend. They are all wrong, and they bankrupt their readers, but the sellers of the books make a lot of money. So when I put out a bullish book in 1978, we didn’t sell a lot of copies until years later. And when I put out bearish books in 1995 and 1999, they didn’t get read, at least not right away. The one I put out in 2002 [Conquer the Crash] sold well because the market was already off its highs. But as the bear market progresses, that book will sell more and more copies. It is not the best way to make money, but it’s honest.”
Don’t you find it ironic that, as Bob says, investors who are swept up in the dominant psychology of the day often buy books about market analysis at precisely the wrong times? When stocks are topping and it’s time to sell, bullish books become bestsellers. When stocks are looking for a bottom and it’s time to re-invest your cash, gloom-and-doom books take center stage.
In both cases, investors who read those books and follow the advice get burned. Not because the advice was necessarily bad, no -- it’s the timing of the advice that was terrible.
We don’t want you to get burned. That’s why we keep saying that Conquer the Crash is a book you must read now -- before it’s too late. Advice on how to protect your money does you little good after the meltdown has begun. Being proactive about shielding your assets will help you ten times more than being reactive.
To make things easier, you can get a free copy of Conquer the Crash with a subscription to the Financial Forecast Service, our most popular package. Not only will you get timely investment advice in Conquer the Crash, you’ll also stay tuned to our latest market views.
Sincerely,
Vadim Pokhlebkin
Your Club EWI Manager
You are receiving this e-mail because you signed up with Club EWI. If you would prefer to stop your Club EWI privileges, please reply to this message with the word remove in the subject line.
This email was sent to you by Elliott Wave International, P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, GA 30503, USA.
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