-->würden sich noch viel mehr Barrels in Luft auflösen:
Simmons noted that “in an era of poor energy data, OPEC is a total vacuum,” but his latest work on Saudi Arabia does come at a time, when despite more than two decades of official secrecy, questions are being asked about Middle East capacity and reserves, especially since the surprise OPEC cut in production in February 2004.
A SPO has recently analysed the extraordinary OPEC reserve revisions of the 1980s, which saw volumes leap from 353.6 billion barrels in 1982 to 643.5 billion in 1990 despite no new large discoveries. Two different ASPO studies conclude that reserves are somewhere between 100 and 300 billion barrels smaller than officially claimed. Evidence from widespread and dramatic falls in well productivity suggests that reserves may now be about what they were stated to be in 1982. This would fit with the original numbers being understated by about thirty percent, and seeing about this much produced in the intervening twenty years.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031704_two_planets.html
Our second example is a nation state, OPEC member Kuwait. The government says Kuwaitis"hold 10% of the world's total reserves". Yet in 1985 they were faced with a quandary.
OPEC decided to allow member countries to pump only a certain percentage of their reserves. The obvious point being the more reserves you said you had, the more you could pump. The more you could pump, the more money you earned.
So, overnight Kuwaiti reserves near doubled.
Again, Kuwait currently reports its reserves at 94 billion barrels. Yet it has reported its reserves at 94 billion barrels since 1992. Unchanged, each and every year. This is despite daily production and no significant new finds.
Of course Kuwait, like Shell, is not alone. Iraq's reserves are still those quoted by former president Saddam Hussein. In response to the 1985 Kuwaiti increase in 1987 Saddam announced that Iraq's oil reserves were not in fact 47.1 billion barrels but"reserves of 100 billion barrels".
Not only did production and a leaking infrastructure fail to dent these figures, in fact the opposite occurred. Today they are actually quoted at 112 billion barrels.
Unreliable data
Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, Chairman and CEO of Simmons and Co, a contributor to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, puts it this way.
"We still do not have any reliable data on (Iraq's) two great fields. The most famous one is Kirkuk and we have no new data on that at all. It is a very old field and the idea that suddenly Iraq can produce five or six million barrels per day is just a joke. It's goofy."
Market reaction has a big role in
shaping policies of big oil firms
Yet OPEC's quota-based income stream has meant that Abu Dhabi (31-92bn), Venezuela (25-56bn), Iran (48.8-92.9bn) and Saudi Arabia (170-257.5bn) have also done the same.
And while Saudi Arabia's national oil company Saudi Aramco claims to have 257.5 billion barrels, its recently retired executive vice president Sadad Al Husseini has said there is in fact"130 billion barrels of proven reserves".
Geologist Laherrere says,"OPEC will not change their reporting as long as quotas will be in force. Only when the supply becomes short and quotas useless will OPEC accept to report real estimates."
http://www.axisoflogic.com/cgi-bin/exec/view.pl?archive=66&num=10892&printer=1
Matthew Simmons ist übrigens Chef einer der größten Investmentbanken im Ã-lgeschäft, seine letzten Ansprachen und Reden sind sehr interessant.
Gruss,
Sorrento
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