-->Nur mal so für alle, die immer wieder im Fernsehen von der stetig und ständig wachsenden Stahlnachfrage in China sprechen. Wenn China als Importmarkt wegfällt sehen wir spätestens Mitte 2005 ein Überangebot von Stahl... PSSST aber nicht weiter sagen... ;-)

Wednesday, 15. Dec 2004, 11:39

China Economic Net 2004-12-15



Der chinesische monatliche Stahlexport hat nach der ständigen Steigerung seit Mai des laufenden Jahres bereits den Import übertroffen. Das ist das erste Mal in der chinesischen Stahlhandelgeschichte.

Nach den statistischen Angaben vom Verein für Eisen und Stahl lag das monatliche Exportvolumen seit Mai bei mehr als eine Million Tonnen. Im September wurden Stahle von 1,95 Mio. Tonnen ausgeführt und 1,87 Mio. eingeführt. Im Oktober erreichte das Exportvolumen 2,20 Mio. Tonnen, 0,5 Mio. Tonnen mehr als Import von 1,70 Mio. Tonnen.

Vor 2003 ist der Stahlimport in China stetig gestiegen und seit 2004 erst abgesunken. Das Exportvolumen dieses Jahres soll, einer Schätzung des Stahlvereins zufolge, von 6,96 Mio. Tonnen im letzten Jahr auf 18 Mio. Tonnen steigen und der Import währenddessen von 30,21 Mio. Tonnen auf 29 Mio. Tonnen abgenommen. Dies bestätigt, laut dem Vorsitzender des Stahlvereins, Wu Xichun, dass die chinesischen Stahlprodukte im internationalen Markt konkurrenzfähiger geworden seien. Viele große Stahlindustrien werden in den letzten Jahren modernisiert und haben damit die Qualität ihrer Produkte erheblich verbessert. Die Industrien wie Baosteel und Anshan Iron & Steel haben durch Restrukturierung ihre Herstellung von billigen Produkten an höherwertigen Stahlen gewendet. Die Anshan Iron & Steel liefert bereits Autobauteile an mehreren Autokonzernen wie Chery, Jetta, BMW, Ford und auch an den amerikanischen Autoindustrien.

Die chinesische Regierung hat in diesem Jahr durch eine Reihe Steuerungsmaßnahmen die Überhitzung der Stahlindustrie kontrolliert und die Produktion der unterwertigen Artikel streng beschränkt. Eine gesunde Entwicklung der chinesischen Stahlindustrie kommt anfänglich in Erscheinung.

-->Hallo EM,

die Quelle hier unten sieht keine Trendwende. China's eigene Nachfrage weiterhin stark und weiterhin Nettoimporteur.

unschlüssig mit Gruss

off-shore-trader



China's steel export growth prompts hostile threat theory

15:06, October 29, 2004

According to China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) China's export of steel product and billet increased remarkably during the first 9 months compared with the same period last year. In particular, monthly aggregate export of steel products and billets for the first time exceeded import.

These are figures that make western economic opinions nervous.

Although only raw materials they have nevertheless been closely watched by the economic opinions in the west. The"theory of Chinese steel threat" is quietly raising head.

As early as February when China's annual iron and steel production led the world in exceeding 200 million tons western economic opinions began to fix their attention on China's steel industry. They claimed that global industries which need steels suddenly sent the message of steel shortage and placed the blame on"China's fast economic growth".

As learned Luo Bingsheng, vice chairman of the CISA, recently received an overseas phone call intended to find out if China's iron and steel export has exceeded import.

In the eyes of foreigners these are more than just boring figure conversions. They mean that China's iron and steel companies are suddenly growing in strength and they will hold the balance in the global iron and steel industry. Experts have long been pointing out that some international steel and steel-related industries who do not wish to see this kind of situation coming have exaggerated China's steel product demand and competition for raw material resources. It looks like a sign of viciously cooking up"China subjects" is presenting itself.

"As a matter of fact China is far from being an 'external trade giant in iron and steel'. The expansion of its production capacity is to meet the strong demand of domestic industrialization. The international market has no reason to panic.", said Luo Bingsheng rebuffing this kind of theory as purely speaking on hearsay evidence.

"Recently export of raw steel materials has indeed been growing. Besides, the hiking is in conformity with the general international situation.", said Luo Bingsheng.

In the first place price differences between international market and domestic market are big and export profits rise to add incentive to domestic companies. World steel resources are tight this year. Global comprehensive index was as high as 161.2 at the end of September whilst the figure in the Chinese market was only 119.97. There were a $100-odd difference for each ton. This was the largest difference between international and domestic markets in ten years. The macro-control measures adopted by the government once brought domestic iron and steel prices down. Expanding export has become a new opportunity for the iron and steel companies.

Second, the North American market has a huge demand for steel. Shortage of supply there is most conspicuous and its steel prices set the highest record worldwide. Most European and Asian exports flow to North America.

Third, a large amount of domestic production goes to meet the demand of domestic market. Although the government has released relevant macro-control measures"our demand for iron and steel in the industrialization process is still very strong".

"Besides, the general situation of the first 9 months was that export was far lower than import and this situation will maintain for a few years.", said Luo Bingsheng.

According to statistics offered by the CISA China's export of steel product and billet during the first 9 months totaled 11.46 million tons, which was a big year-on-year increase. However, it was far lower than the 27.56 million tons of import.


<ul> ~ http://english.people.com.cn/200410/29/eng20041029_162108.html</ul>