-->By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Not able to justify a bullish posture with reference to the"first five days of January" indicator, Wall Street's perma-bulls simply shifted their focus. So long as the entire month of January is up, they now are blithely reassuring their clients, then the stock market should be up for the full year as well.

God forbid that these advisers actually follow their previous advice and use the apparent bearishness of the"first five days of January" indicator as the occasion to reduce their recommended equity exposure.

Regardless of their cynical motives in turning their attention to the full month of January, however, the perma-bulls' focus on the so-called January Indicator does raise an interesting question. Is the market's direction in January a good predictor of its direction over the remainder of the year?

What I found is surprising. While the answer to this question is"yes," it turns out that the answer would be yes if the same question were asked about almost all other months as well.

In other words, though January's direction may be something worth looking at, it is no more worth paying attention to than the direction of almost any other month.

Let me explain how I reached this counterintuitive conclusion.

I started with monthly returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) back to its creation in 1896. Starting with the 108 January's since then, I compared the market's February-December return following an"up" January with its return following a"down" January.

I next did the same thing for the 108 Februarys since 1896, comparing the average March-through-January return following a positive February with the average following a declining month.

I continued this process for each of the other months as well.

I found that, with the exception of February, all months do a statistically significant job of signaling a rising or falling market over the subsequent 11 months. Interestingly, the months with the strongest record in this regard are April and November; January is in third place behind those two.

What accounts for the statistical results that emerged from my examination? My guess is that it's nothing more profound than the market's tendency to exhibit trends. As I discussed in a column two months ago, paraphrasing Isaac Newton: A trend in motion tends to continue. (Read archived column.)

This tendency exists through the year, however. There is nothing particularly magical about January in foretelling the market's subsequent direction.

These results pose several questions for those who would rely on the January Indicator: Why not have a similar indicator for the other months as well? Why aren't you referring to the April Indicator or the November Indicator, for example?

I'm not holding my breath waiting for an answer.

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