-->und baldige Renminbi-Aufwertung....
Asia-Pacific Economics Research, 17.01.05
- We expect to see a soft landing for Chinas growth in 2005 before picking up speed going into 2006, amid policy adjustments switching more decisively from administrative controls towards a gradual process of interest rate and exchange rate normalization.
- We have lowered our CPI inflation forecast for 2005 to 2,6%, down from 4% previously, for two reasons:
1) Policy tightening, in particular the sharp credit slowdown in 2004, in our view, will lead to domestic demand growing at a slower pace in 2005
2) There have beeen significant supply responses in areas where previous constraints have led to acute price pressures, including a faster-than-expected de-bottlenecking in transportation.
- As a result, we now expect only a 50 basis point interest rate hike this year; likely in 2H2005, after both activity and credit growth begin to show signs of renewed strength. On the other hand, we maintain our view that a renminbi (CNY) revaluation is likely to happen early in the year, with a cumulative appreciation of 5% against a trade-weighted basket in the next twelve months.
- The main risk to our 2005-2006 view is that the policy"switch", including an exchange rate adjustment, gets postponed in 2005, resulting in stronger growth this year but at the expense of slower growth in 2006
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