Hi!

Hier für Euch ein Auszug aus dem Harry Schultz Letter (www.hsletter.com) zum Dollar. Harry Schultz (HS) ist laut Guiness Buch der Weltrekorde von 1981 bis heute der Welt höchst bezahlte investment consultant. Die performence seines Musterdepots liegt dieses Jahr bei 39 %. HS verlässt sich hauptsächlich auf technische Analyse.

"... The Letter for Millionaires — current & prospective (& former)...
HSL ~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 90 nations)

The US Dollar is the world’s lynchpin. So, it’s with great trepidation that I
announce the Day of the Dollar bull market is coming to an end.
As with the late Mother of all Bull (stock) markets, which took
many months to build a top, the $-bull top may also take some
time. But there’s no assurance of that. With faith in Nasdaq &
tech stocks now evaporating (most of which are down 50-90%),
public confidence is waning. That could lead to sharp turn down.
Just as the bones in your body are linked & each affects its
neighbour, so a fall in the US$ will hit US stocks & the US
economy. Effects will be dramatic. Many outside investors will
pull their $’s out of the US. Whether this is in slow motion like a
gentle Xmas snowfall, or a treacherous ski slope avalanche, is
unknowable at this stage. If my perspective is correct, the conditions
of the past few years are about to be turned on their heads.
Yet, it’s normal, cyclical & a reversion to conditions of not so
long ago. It won’t feel normal because people quickly get used
to what becomes a status quo, & can’t fathom it can change very
much. Complacency has no reward.
That means one should take at least a first step to the exit. Eg,
20% of your US$ position. Even if U got radical & switched by
50%, the worst case event (ie, the $ going higher) would merely
find U evenly balanced, neither gaining nor losing value on any
subsequent currency action—but while still earning interest.
Selling US$ positions here is really “profit-taking”—ie, selling
an item that’s risen vs the other currencies, getting a good price
for the item, & getting into the other item (another currency) at a
near rock-bottom price. Some call it: buy low, sell high. ☺
Whether this will be merely a 2-3 year correction or a major
long-term trend reversal is impossible to classify. But partial
switching now is at least buying insurance. I think of it as simple
diversification. At a later stage, we may find the charts speak
loudly in favour of not just diversification, but a 100% exit from
the US$. Yet for today, a big-toe-in-the-water move seems a
reasonable, calculated, low risk.
We have created new chart tools to measure currencies, dat-ing
back 30+ years, with which we hope to give some useful
guidelines along the way. Eg, we see a possibility we’re in for a
replay of certain stages of the late 60’s, 70’s, 80’s when the $
was suspect. All this is a great nuisance since virtually everyone is
partly, if not largely, sitting in US$’s. To exit $’s means getting
a lower interest rate, picking new currencies, deciding whether to
do the switch in mini-stages, whether to use euro call options, etc. But great
reward beckons. Picking a new currency to switch
into may seem tricky, but there are only a few sound choices. The euro,
a currency nobody (including us) had a nice word for in a year, is now one.
The unloved Canadian $ is another. Swiss franc is a 3rd. The £ may be,
but not just now. The Yen: probably not. As this is a US$ weakness, rather
than strength elsewhere situation, posturing is not by recent normal
rules. Later, most currencies will probably move as “a pack” against
the US$, will make choices easier. Why is the US$ “weak” when it’s
not far down from its multi-yr high? For some of the same reasons the
Nasdaq was weak when it was making one new high after another. It was
pricing itself out of existence. The US$ has priced many US products
out of world mkts, & US current account/ trade deficits are the biggest in
world history, for any nation or any 5 nations combined. The $-chart, like
all the tech stocks, has become almost parabolic. And the flip side is
that most other currencies (eg, the Canadian-$) have become too
cheap. Nothing rises or falls forever. A role reversal seems approximately
at hand. But because the US$ isn’t just any currency,
but rather a world currency, the contiguous, knock-on effects
will be dramatic & change our financial world.
The US$ is “over-owned.” 77.7% of world central bank reserves
are in US$’s. That’s disproportionate to the US share of
world trade. There’ll now be some diversification, esp to the euro.
Just as central banks sold gold, they’ll now sell US$’s. A study
revealed at central bank confab at Jackson Hole, by Prof Obstfeld
& Rogoff, suggests the US$ could drop 24%-40% if foreigners move
quickly to exchange $’s. Foreigners own a record 38% of US."

Single copy price: US$50, DM110, SwFr85, £34, € 56, A$91, C$76, 0.18 oz Gold
Jahresabonnement: US$ 285

Gruss

Luke


<ul> ~ Harry Schultz Letter</ul>
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Artikel geht weiter:

..."Foreigners own 38 % of the Treasury mkt (44% excluding Fed Reserve holdings), 20% of US corp bonds, 8% of US stks. A change of sentiment, now sud-denly in the air, could start a $-brushfire.
The US$ is also vulnerable because of bad US bank loans,
derivatives, certain commodity shortages, looming recession, the
tech stock catastrophe, the productivity myth, oil denomination,
overvaluation of most US stocks, corporate over-merging, end-less
spin on strong $ which can lead to overnight disenchant-ment,
diminished US image due to Florida, & more. When U are
at the top, the only direction left is down. But $-deflation is not
a bad thing for the US. No country should let itself be so de-pendent
on foreign capital flow. And other nations should not be
dependent on a “foreign” currency. A deflated $ will help US
exports, just as a falling euro helped Euro biz.
Bullish consensus data shows traders very bearish on all non-US$
currencies, extremely bullish on US $-index. The evidence
for the end of the $-bull mkt is overwhelming. The sudden swing
to the euro is only a few days old, but momentum is building like
multiple earthquakes. Fixed-interest global fund mgrs suddenly
favour the euro for the next 12 mos by 73% to 18% for the US$,
says Merrill. John Percival’s Currency Bulletin (email:
CB@ppx.com) recommends non-US accounts repatriate US$’s.
Likes C-$. Advises cover euro shorts. (I did). Likes euro & SwFr.
••Insiders are panicking, most caught off guard. Elitist house
organ, the FT, ran an editorial Dec 1 urging “Keep faith in the
$.” How 2-faced.

PS: Oh yes, I forgot. There is another currency choice. It’s
called gold. That 4-letter word. Historically, when the US$ falls,
gold usually rises. It’s been falling for a long time & due for a
role reversal. When/if confidence slips away from the US$, some
people will turn to gold for at least a part of the switched funds.
It is, after all, the ultimate place to flee to when in doubt or fear.
Confidence is all that holds up any currency today, as all are fiat
(ie, unbacked by anything but political hot air). If that confidence
begins to crack, as it did in 1970’s, then gold will glow.
And for those who don’t like the alternative fiat currency choices,
some will vote for the metal.
Also, realize that breaking the US$ “imperial” stranglehold
on the world will be a great thing for freedom, for tax havens,
for choice. US elites control much of world via the $; eg, they’re
forcing tax havens to tell all, or lose access to US banks, which
they need to clear cheques. If US$ slips to 2 nd place, other money
centres (London/Frankfurt/Paris/Tokyo/Zurich) can detour
around US NY bank control. If oil is priced in euros, not $’s, it
will be positive. Latin nations & HK, who tie their currencies to
US$, will want to reverse that. Any time anyone, any country, or
any thing is too dominant, the result is negative. The US$ stopped
being just a currency & became a controller of actions, in a thou-sand
ways, some years ago. And it happened without our realization
that the price was part of freedom itself."

Gruss

Luke

<ul> ~ The International Harry Schultz Letter</ul>
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Hi Luke,

erinnere mich nich an dein 'Jane's defense weekly' posting wo die Experten einen Nuklearschlag innert 3 Jahren seitens Israel erwarteten. Solche Infos würden mich auch in Zukunft interessieren.

Die Sache mit dem Dollar ist wirklich interessant, nichts steigt oder fällt ewig, wie wahr. Jetzt noch die Krise in Argentinien, wohin wird das Geld aus den USA umgeschichtet? Wie reagiert die FED, wird sie inflationieren und vor allem wann! Sehen wir hier ein zweites japan?

black elk

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Hallo die Runde
Dieser Brief sagt genau dasselbe, was euch Oldy immer sagt,
seit er auf diesem Forum schreibt. Der Dollar ist fundamental
"overissued". Die Dollarinflation ist nur noch versteckt,
weil alle Welt (noch) dort investiert. Jetzt fängt es an
im Gebälk zu knistern und es ist nicht zu erwarten, daß
es ein sanfter Fall sein wird.
Das ist wie bei einem Bach, der mit leichten Gefälle und
Wellen fließt. Da kann ein guter Wellenreiter schön
überleben und sich mit Stopps absichern und auch ab und zu
sich am Bargeldufer ausrasten. Ist er aber in der Strömung,
wenn es dem freien Fall zugeht, dann ist er nicht nur
ausgestoppt. Aber natürlich! Diesmal ist es anders!
Er glaubt es nur nicht ganz, der Oldy

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>Hi Luke,
>erinnere mich nich an dein 'Jane's defense weekly' posting wo die Experten einen Nuklearschlag innert 3 Jahren seitens Israel erwarteten. Solche Infos würden mich auch in Zukunft interessieren.

>Die Sache mit dem Dollar ist wirklich interessant, nichts steigt oder fällt ewig, wie wahr. Jetzt noch die Krise in Argentinien, wohin wird das Geld aus den USA umgeschichtet? Wie reagiert die FED, wird sie inflationieren und vor allem wann! Sehen wir hier ein zweites japan?
>black elk


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>Hi!
>Hier für Euch ein Auszug aus dem Harry Schultz Letter (www.hsletter.com) zum Dollar. Harry Schultz (HS) ist laut Guiness Buch der Weltrekorde von 1981 bis heute der Welt höchst bezahlte investment consultant. Die performence seines Musterdepots liegt dieses Jahr bei 39 %. HS verlässt sich hauptsächlich auf technische Analyse.
>"... The Letter for Millionaires — current & prospective (& former)...
>HSL ~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 90 nations)
>The US Dollar is the world’s lynchpin. So, it’s with great trepidation that I
>announce the Day of the Dollar bull market is coming to an end.
>As with the late Mother of all Bull (stock) markets, which took
>many months to build a top, the $-bull top may also take some
>time. But there’s no assurance of that. With faith in Nasdaq &
>tech stocks now evaporating (most of which are down 50-90%),
>public confidence is waning. That could lead to sharp turn down.
>Just as the bones in your body are linked & each affects its
>neighbour, so a fall in the US$ will hit US stocks & the US
>economy. Effects will be dramatic. Many outside investors will
>pull their $’s out of the US. Whether this is in slow motion like a
>gentle Xmas snowfall, or a treacherous ski slope avalanche, is
>unknowable at this stage. If my perspective is correct, the conditions
>of the past few years are about to be turned on their heads.
>Yet, it’s normal, cyclical & a reversion to conditions of not so
>long ago. It won’t feel normal because people quickly get used
>to what becomes a status quo, & can’t fathom it can change very
>much. Complacency has no reward.
>That means one should take at least a first step to the exit. Eg,
>20% of your US$ position. Even if U got radical & switched by
>50%, the worst case event (ie, the $ going higher) would merely
>find U evenly balanced, neither gaining nor losing value on any
>subsequent currency action—but while still earning interest.
>Selling US$ positions here is really “profit-taking”—ie, selling
>an item that’s risen vs the other currencies, getting a good price
>for the item, & getting into the other item (another currency) at a
>near rock-bottom price. Some call it: buy low, sell high. &#9786;
>Whether this will be merely a 2-3 year correction or a major
>long-term trend reversal is impossible to classify. But partial
>switching now is at least buying insurance. I think of it as simple
>diversification. At a later stage, we may find the charts speak
>loudly in favour of not just diversification, but a 100% exit from
>the US$. Yet for today, a big-toe-in-the-water move seems a
>reasonable, calculated, low risk.
>We have created new chart tools to measure currencies, dat-ing
>back 30+ years, with which we hope to give some useful
>guidelines along the way. Eg, we see a possibility we’re in for a
>replay of certain stages of the late 60’s, 70’s, 80’s when the $
>was suspect. All this is a great nuisance since virtually everyone is
>partly, if not largely, sitting in US$’s. To exit $’s means getting
>a lower interest rate, picking new currencies, deciding whether to
>do the switch in mini-stages, whether to use euro call options, etc. But great
>reward beckons. Picking a new currency to switch
>into may seem tricky, but there are only a few sound choices. The euro,
>a currency nobody (including us) had a nice word for in a year, is now one.
>The unloved Canadian $ is another. Swiss franc is a 3rd. The £ may be,
>but not just now. The Yen: probably not. As this is a US$ weakness, rather
>than strength elsewhere situation, posturing is not by recent normal
>rules. Later, most currencies will probably move as “a pack” against
>the US$, will make choices easier. Why is the US$ “weak” when it’s
>not far down from its multi-yr high? For some of the same reasons the
>Nasdaq was weak when it was making one new high after another. It was
>pricing itself out of existence. The US$ has priced many US products
>out of world mkts, & US current account/ trade deficits are the biggest in
>world history, for any nation or any 5 nations combined. The $-chart, like
>all the tech stocks, has become almost parabolic. And the flip side is
>that most other currencies (eg, the Canadian-$) have become too
>cheap. Nothing rises or falls forever. A role reversal seems approximately
>at hand. But because the US$ isn’t just any currency,
>but rather a world currency, the contiguous, knock-on effects
>will be dramatic & change our financial world.
>The US$ is “over-owned.” 77.7% of world central bank reserves
>are in US$’s. That’s disproportionate to the US share of
>world trade. There’ll now be some diversification, esp to the euro.
>Just as central banks sold gold, they’ll now sell US$’s. A study
>revealed at central bank confab at Jackson Hole, by Prof Obstfeld
>& Rogoff, suggests the US$ could drop 24%-40% if foreigners move
>quickly to exchange $’s. Foreigners own a record 38% of US."
>Single copy price: US$50, DM110, SwFr85, £34, € 56, A$91, C$76, 0.18 oz Gold
>Jahresabonnement: US$ 285
>Gruss
>Luke


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