Hallo,
leider viel in Englisch vom Crystallboard, message2923, woher sonst, aber die Meinung eines GESTANDENEN MARKTTECHNIKERS - happy happy - grusel grusel
Oder ist dies ein Super-Markttechniker ohne jedes Realitätsbewußtsein?
Gruß/OOO


[ Read Replies ] [ Post a Reply ] [ Crystal Ball ]



From: Nelson Palmer
Date Posted: January 12, 2001 at 10:07:09
Subject: another side of coin
Reference: What's your favorite accumulation indicator?


Thought you might like this Interview.

Top Market Timer Says, NASDAQ 5000 This Year

An InvestorLinks Exclusive Report
From the InvestorLinks.com News Desk
By: Peter Santini, January 11, 2001

Like a hot knife through butter, the NASDAQ should go through 5000 this year.
That's what Don Wolanchuk says and he's one of Market Timer Digest's Top
Market Timers, having won 17 annual timing awards since 1989. Some of his
greatest timing calls were widely ignored by the investment community.
Wolanchuk forecast the bull market rally following the 1987 crash and called for
a DJIA above 10,000. When NASDAQ traded at 1800, he forecast a NASDAQ
5000. In 1999, at the bottom of the oil market, Wolanchuk called for $30/barrel
oil. He was Market Timer of the Year in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1999.

In the interview below, Wolanchuk calls for a"fast and furious" return to
NASDAQ 5000. But, that's only the first level. He's calling for a NASDAQ
10,000 on its way"towards 20,000." He forecasts Intel (INTC, Chart, Boards)
reaching as high as $75/share, Microsoft (MSFT, Chart, Boards) returning to
$112/share, AT&T (T, Chart, Boards) reaching $60/share, and Procter and
Gamble (PG, Chart, Boards) at $118/share.

Wolanchuk uses numerous historical comparisons in describing the current
market conditions and helping explain why sentiment is as it is. In explaining
why we should anticipate a major rally in the financial markets, he offers
various technical measures, such as the VIX Index, the ARMS Index and the
Advance/Decline lines. This may be the most important interview you will read
this year.

Investors and curiosity seekers may wish to visit Don Wolanchuk's website for
additional information about his market timing techniques at
www.wolanchuk.com

INVESTORLINKS: How do you currently feel about the condition of the
markets?

WOLANCHUK: When it becomes hopeless to everybody, which it appears to
be now… In fact a few weeks ago, with the American Association of Individual
Investors, you saw 51 percent bears and about 30 percent bulls. That's a flight.
And rather amazing because the DOW is basically where it was a year, year and
a half ago. NASDAQ the same way. The market's taken a time out with the
DOW about 10,000. The same thing happened in 1991 - went side ways, drove
everybody crazy. It's taken a great breather. Interestingly, we get all the
bluebirds out and you've heard the words"crash" and"bubble" and every other
thing from these bears.

INVESTORLINKS: The word"recession" has been mentioned more than a few
times recently.

WOLANCHUK: Yes. After the crash of 1987, we had a recession and the
market went straight up. Recession, fear of the stock market, everybody moving
into money market funds and talk of bear markets is what bottoms are made out
of. Proof of that is in the technical picture. While this has been going on, the
base 52-week new highs have been steadily climbing for a year now - the stocks
making new 52-week highs. Last week, there were over six hundred. The
weekly Advance/Decline line just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing.
Technically, we've got a fabulous situation in the moving averages of put/call
ratios. We've got numbers that we haven't seen in years. We've got an ARMS
index in the moving average - the last time that I saw 130. I can't remember
seeing a ten day ARMS at 130. Even while the DOW has been going up here,
recently, the five-day trend has been staying above eight hundred. That's
incredible! The DOW, where is it? It's over 1000 out of the October low. In the
mean time, we've got everybody being chased out of the stock market. It's
absolutely a fabulous situation.

INVESTORLINKS: Is it fabulous enough that it's time for investors to rush
back in?

WOLANCHUK: They're not going to do it no matter what I say. If I tell them
to jump in here with both feet, they're not going to listen to me - just like they
didn't listen to me after the crash of 1987.

INVESTORLINKS: For those that do listen to you, what should they expect?

WOLANCHUK: Every time that we have this situation, the stocks are served
up on silver platter. The interesting thing is the wipeout in a lot of NASDAQ
stocks is typical of an industry that attracted a lot of people - the Internet
business. A horde of people went in there for fast and easy money. A lot of
these companies, of course, are not going to make it and you had the initial
shake out. You had all these troubles with financings that turned into death
spirals.

INVESTORLINKS: Where do you see the NASDAQ heading?

WOLANCHUK: When the NASDAQ was at 1800, I said it was going to 5000.
It's a perfect correction. I haven't seen anything in the wave structure to negate
my idea that it's going to head - the potential is that the NASDAQ is going to
start flying up past 10,000 towards 20,000.

INVESTORLINKS: The NASDAQ?

WOLANCHUK: Yes, the NASDAQ."Is anybody, who was on margin and who
got wiped out, going to go near the margin department for probably months or
years? Of course not."

INVESTORLINKS: From where to where?

WOLANCHUK: Past 5000 and a clean shot through 10,000 on it's way to
20,000.

INVESTORLINKS: You're going on record that the NASDAQ is going to
20,000.

WOLANCHUK: It's going to go beyond that eventually. There's going to be a
lot of washouts in between. This is the best washout.

INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're ever going to see an opportunity like
this again?

WOLANCHUK: Just like we never saw an opportunity when it made it's low in
1998. Here we have a situation where everybody got notoriously bullish in the
NASDAQ. The problem there was they were right being bullish, but they were
wrong in the way that they executed it. That was by buying stock with
borrowed funds on margin accounts. It wasn't anything else, but people were
forced out of the market because of margin selling. Now look how clean this
market is. Is anybody, who was on margin and who got wiped out, going to go
near the margin department for probably months or years? Of course not. This
market is very clean in that regard. So we don't have to worry about forced
margin selling anymore. We don't have to worry too much about poor
sentiment. After the crash of 1987 everybody thought, all through the next two
years, that it was bear market rally. There's nobody going to be calling this a
bull market for long time even though the weekly Advance/Decline line
bottomed out a year ago.

INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're still in a bull market?

WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. If there's nobody left to sell and everybody's
bearish…I got the same thing in 1987. I feel a lot better about it now, because
I'm in the minority. What's so funny is that the media said that the NASDAQ
had its worst year in history. What they don't say is that, a year ago, the
NASDAQ is where it is now. For the first six months it was the grandest six
months in the history of the NASDAQ. Then, you had the worst six months and
you ended up back where you started. That's exactly what the DOW did in
1987. All it did was go back to where it was in 1986 and the whole process
started all over again. It is a hump in a chart that is continuing it's up climb. In
the meantime, these stop clock bears who yet have to get religion… Can you
imagine some of these stop clock bears who have been calling for the end of
Western Civilization for the last fourteen years?

INVESTORLINKS: What about the bears?

WOLANCHUK: This market's not going to let them off the hook. Here we are
above 10,000 pressing 11,000. If I'd told you 15 years ago, after the crash of
the DOW, when everybody hated it, that they would hate it just as much above
10,000 you would have thought I was a nut. Here we are above 10,000 and
everybody hates it. We are at a high level consolidation that's been stretching
out for a year and a half or so in the DOW and the NASDAQ - a flawless ABC.
What we call an ABC irregular flat correction in terms of Elliot where the
B-Wave made the high at five thousand. Until proven other wise, anybody who
says we're in a bear market - and at the end and we'll never see these highs
again for years, which we've heard a lot of… You've got to remember where all
this talk came from. It came from the people who missed the entire advance to
begin with. They have really no credentials to be making those kinds of
statements. In the meantime I never thought that I would be in the minority
bullish camp once again with the DOW pressing eleven thousand. It's a rather
fabulous situation. All these companies that have taken whacks like Intel (INTC,
Chart, Boards), General Motors (GM, Chart, Boards). There's some of these
DOW stocks actually are screaming new highs like the banking stocks. What
we've had is a rotational exercise, which is typical of a high level consolidation
in the primary market. While the secondary and most speculative market, as
you know the NASDAQ, has gotten it's comeuppance because of the margin
buying.

INVESTORLINKS: Where does that leave us?

WOLANCHUK: Now we've got a cleaned up market where nobody is going to
go near the margin desk. We're set up for a resumption of the bull market. In
certain sectors the bull markets been intact for quite awhile.

INVESTORLINKS: What about the market's short-term prospects?

WOLANCHUK: Actually, the markets have been rallying while the NASDAQ is
re-testing its prior lows. The Wilshire Small Cap on a weekly basis has a
great-looking chart pattern as far as I'm concerned. It's declined and held its
150-week moving average. It's a mile out of its hole made in 1998. It's a classic
little consolidation. But, if you look at the NASDAQ it's only declined in three
waves off the top. If you're an Elliot Wave Analyst and you're bearish, you've
got to say to yourself,"If that's only three waves, and that's the second wave
pull back, a third wave blast of historic proportion can absolutely be born out of
that." Because of that potential, I'm certainly not going to miss it, if that's going
to happen. The wave structure of the NASDAQ certainly allows for that. Here
we are with a VIX Index (CBOE Market Volatility Index) still above 30 percent.
It's been hovering above 30 percent since September. It's taken a stab to 37
percent during that time frame. This is a long period of high VIX readings
without any solid detraction in a primary market. This is bullish. A market that
looks ugly and doesn't go down is a market that you want to own.

INVESTORLINKS: What are your thoughts on the recovering telecom sector?

WOLANCHUK: There's no doubt about it, but the telecom sector has gotten
awfully oversold, even more oversold than the NASDAQ. A lot of these wire
houses couldn't stand it so I think they put out a big buy on AT&T (T, Chart,
Boards). Here's a stock that technically appears like it's going to go all the way
back to $60/share because of the gap situation. When a futures contract, or a
stock, declines or advances leaving lots of gaps in the chart, all of those gaps
eventually get filled. Intel (INTC, Chart, Boards) in my view is a prime
candidate for that. INTC left all these huge gaps all the way down and Intel has
got $75/share written all over it because of these gaps. The same thing with
Microsoft (MSFT, Chart, Boards). I'm seeing Microsoft going back to$112,
$115 or higher. It's the gap rule. The only reason that the NASDAQ declined in
the first place was to fill all the gaps it left, when it initially thrust out of the hole
over a year ago. There were three large gaps. They went down and filled them
all. We had the S&P 500 futures bottom over a week ago at 1288. The next day
it opened on a huge gap.

INVESTORLINKS: How soon should we expect these strong moves?

WOLANCHUK: We've been through some speedy moves here. We've had a
bull market and a bear market - people going from extraordinarily bullish to
extraordinarily bearish, all within a number of months. These things are moving
really fast. Look at the volatility we've seen in the last number of weeks. We
went through this 1991. While this is going on, sentiment is improving. It's just
like 1991 all over again. It went up and down, drove everybody crazy for over a
year. Not much has changed.

INVESTORLINKS: Are you pretty much saying that we should expect more
volatility.

WOLANCHUK: I think we've had the bulk of it. My only concern is the cycles.
We've got a four-year cycle due in 2002.

INVESTORLINKS: What does that mean?

"What everybody is anticipating, in my view, could prove to be something
similar to what we saw in 1987: The market going crazy."

WOLANCHUK: That means it's going to be marked by something. Let me give
you an example. We had a four-year cycle low due in 1986. Everybody
prepared themselves for it in early 1986 as measured by the daily
Advance/Decline line. It topped out and started declining, declining, declining as
everybody bailed out in anticipation of a four year cycle that was due in 1986.
In September 1986, we got some sort of hammering job, but in December of
1986, the daily A/D line was making twelve-month lows while the DOW was
virtually at historic highs. That got everybody really bearish. Then, the market
exploded to the August 1987 peak. There were all kinds of technical problems
there. The 1986 four-year cycle low basically was met in 1987. The next four
year cycle low if you count forward four years was 1990. Remember how ugly
that was? Then, four years later was 1994. Remember how ugly that was? Four
years later was 1998. So here we are, four years later from 1998, we have
2002. Somewhere between here and there, it appears that everybody is
preparing for this four-year cycle, by bailing out of the stock market in
anticipation of it. What everybody is anticipating, in my view, could prove to be
something similar to what we saw in 1987: The market going crazy.

INVESTORLINKS: Can you clarify how the NASDAQ fits into this?

WOLANCHUK: Basically from the 1998 low, the NASDAQ has retraced
exactly 75 percent of that entire advance in a clean three-wave fashion, which is
exactly what the DOW did in 1987. It went back to the area of the prior
consolidation. It was a consolidation in 1999. All through that year was choppy.
It went up very slowly. I'm saying that the NASDAQ is set up, until the wave
structure says other wise, to go through 5000 like a hot knife through butter - to
go through 10,000 and a move towards 20,000.

INVESTORLINKS: Over what period of time? Five years?

WOLANCHUK: No, the percentage. Remember it is based on percentages. If
I'm right, the third wave is going to be a lot faster than the move that NASDAQ
made from the 1998 low to this past high (March 2000). It should probably take
half the time that it took on that last big move. If I'm right, we'll go through
5000 inside this year sometime.

INVESTORLINKS: Inside this year? Are you serious?

WOLANCHUK: It did it before. It went from 1200 to 5000 in a space of a year
(and some). We've had a three-wave decline. If indeed that's a second wave
pull back. It still counts that way. A third wave is going to be kind of fast and
furious. Because of that potential, I'm certainly not going to say it's not going to
happen. I'm going to be prepared for it if it does.

INVESTORLINKS: Could you explain how this works?

WOLANCHUK: At the end of a second wave pull back, a second wave pull
back is … they've got a lot of things going for them. People have got to be
convinced that they will never see the highs again. People have to be convinced
that they don't want any part of it. We're seeing a lot of this. After the markets
crashed in 1987, one of the prominent bears said that the chance of the DOW
getting above 2700 was 10 percent. Here we are above 10,000. By the way,
that bear is still bearish. It is very tough being bullish because the market makes
it easy to be bearish.

INVESTORLINKS: So which sectors are going to be hot?

WOLANCHUK: The sectors that everybody hates.

INVESTORLINKS: Such as tech stocks?

WOLANCHUK: Take the technology sector - completely sold out as far as I'm
concerned. Retail? Everybody loves to hate retail. In the meantime, we see
Home Depot (HD, Chart, Boards) has already gone from $35/share to
$52/share over the last number of weeks. Intel has got the kind of formations
that I'm just drooling over because of all the gaps left open above the market.
I'm rather excited about what I see.

INVESTORLINKS: Do you think the markets will struggle this year?

WOLANCHUK: It's going to be a mental struggle. I don't know about the price
struggle. I don't think there is going to be a price struggle. I think there is going
to be a mental struggle. People are going to struggle with price.

INVESTORLINKS: Do you mean that investors are going to be looking at an
up market and won't believe that it could go higher?

WOLANCHUK: They did that in 1987 after the crash. If you got caught and
got wiped out, you're not going to go near the stock market. Investors will listen
to high profile bearish gurus who will be telling them it's a bear market rally. We
had a prime example of that happening after 1987. Now I'm even more bullish
because of the recent correction.

INVESTORLINKS: Is there anything that would change your mind?

WOLANCHUK: Yes, if the American Association of Individual Investors got up
to 75 percent bulls and we got euphoric all over again. That's going to come.

INVESTORLINKS: How soon?

"There's going to be a lot of people that will start chasing - if I'm right and we've
finished up a second wave correction in NASDAQ and it starts to melt up."

WOLANCHUK: At the top of the next third wave blast. There's going to be a
lot of people that will start chasing - if I'm right and we've finished up a second
wave correction in NASDAQ and it starts to melt up. There are no sellers left
because everybody's bailed out of the stock market. People are going to be
chasing stocks. Not everybody is just going to stand around and call it a bear
market rally forever. When you chase stocks in a sold out market, you see the
net results. It goes absolutely hairy. Look at what the NASDAQ did coming out
of the 1998 hole. It was so doom and gloom in the 1998 low. It went from 1200
and it doubled in price vertically in a matter of weeks.

INVESTORLINKS: Which stocks should investors consider at this point?

WOLANCHUK: You just spread it around. Qualcomm (QCOM, Chart,
Boards), in my view, is a great situation, Some of the blue chips, like SBC
Communications (SBC, Chart, Boards). It wouldn't surprise me to see General
Motors (GM, Chart, Boards) take off. Disney (DIS, Chart, Boards) is another.
Procter and Gamble (PG, Chart, Boards) is another great looking situation. It
got whacked and it came back nicely. It's consolidating. There's huge gaps just
above the market all the way up to $85/share. It should take out $118/share or
$120/share. It's been there before.

INVESTORLINKS: Should we expect optimism over the coming year?

WOLANCHUK: No. I don't want optimism. I want rising prices against the
background of pessimism. Something like we saw through 1988 and 1989.

INVESTORLINKS: Is that the bull market climbing the wall of worry?

WOLANCHUK: Of course that's what we want and that's what we're going to
get. You know how we're going to get the wall of worry? It goes up slow. It
could be fast. There's two ways of leaving the world behind. The market goes
up super fast, catches everybody. Or the markets go up slow with lots of
correction. Everybody hates it all the way up because of that. It takes nothing to
move this DOW two hundred, three, four, five hundred points anymore. When
we see the epicenter of Primary Wave Three, there is going to be a
thousand-point up day in the DOW. It's coming.

INVESTORLINKS: Could the NASDAQ make a thousand-point gain in one
day?

WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. You can't have the epicenter Primary Wave Three
of Three to the upside unless it is broad-based. All sectors going up in unison.
That is a broad move. The last time we saw a broad move like that was coming
out of the 1982 low.

INVESTORLINKS: Any advice to investors who sold short this market or
selling it short?

WOLANCHUK: I hope they stay short.

INVESTORLINKS





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[ Read Replies ] [ Post a Reply ] [ Crystal Ball ]


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Hi 000,

ist immer wieder amüsant so etwas zu lesen, aber mal im Ernst wo sind die technischen Argumente? Ich habe selten so einen bullshit gelesen, bleibe lieber dabei mich schrittweise voranzutasten. Wenn ich das schon lese, Toptimer oder Topanalyst, wie Arch Crawford...

black elk

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</center>

Fand aber schon, beim ersten Überfliegen, dass da ein paar Argumente drin sind.... nicht bloss Behauptungen. Wie wär's mit einer gründlichen Widerlegung?

M.

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>Fand aber schon, beim ersten Überfliegen, dass da ein paar Argumente drin sind.... nicht bloss Behauptungen. Wie wär's mit einer gründlichen Widerlegung?
>M.

Hi,

ich habe keine Lust mich schon wieder damit auseinander zu setzen, führt zu nichts. Sentiment bullisch bearisch,..bla bla. Sorry, Wochenende!!!

black elk

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<HR>

</center>

>
fulminaten Goldanstieg an 800 vorhergesagt!!!

Hallo,
>leider viel in Englisch vom Crystallboard, message2923, woher sonst, aber die Meinung eines GESTANDENEN MARKTTECHNIKERS - happy happy - grusel grusel
>Oder ist dies ein Super-Markttechniker ohne jedes Realitätsbewußtsein?
>Gruß/OOO
>
>[ Read Replies ] [ Post a Reply ] [ Crystal Ball ]
>From: Nelson Palmer
>Date Posted: January 12, 2001 at 10:07:09
>Subject: another side of coin
>Reference: What's your favorite accumulation indicator?
>
>Thought you might like this Interview.
>Top Market Timer Says, NASDAQ 5000 This Year
>An InvestorLinks Exclusive Report
>From the InvestorLinks.com News Desk
>By: Peter Santini, January 11, 2001
>Like a hot knife through butter, the NASDAQ should go through 5000 this year.
>That's what Don Wolanchuk says and he's one of Market Timer Digest's Top
>Market Timers, having won 17 annual timing awards since 1989. Some of his
>greatest timing calls were widely ignored by the investment community.
>Wolanchuk forecast the bull market rally following the 1987 crash and called for
>a DJIA above 10,000. When NASDAQ traded at 1800, he forecast a NASDAQ
>5000. In 1999, at the bottom of the oil market, Wolanchuk called for $30/barrel
>oil. He was Market Timer of the Year in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1999.
>In the interview below, Wolanchuk calls for a"fast and furious" return to
>NASDAQ 5000. But, that's only the first level. He's calling for a NASDAQ
>10,000 on its way"towards 20,000." He forecasts Intel (INTC, Chart, Boards)
>reaching as high as $75/share, Microsoft (MSFT, Chart, Boards) returning to
>$112/share, AT&T (T, Chart, Boards) reaching $60/share, and Procter and
>Gamble (PG, Chart, Boards) at $118/share.
>Wolanchuk uses numerous historical comparisons in describing the current
>market conditions and helping explain why sentiment is as it is. In explaining
>why we should anticipate a major rally in the financial markets, he offers
>various technical measures, such as the VIX Index, the ARMS Index and the
>Advance/Decline lines. This may be the most important interview you will read
>this year.
>Investors and curiosity seekers may wish to visit Don Wolanchuk's website for
>additional information about his market timing techniques at
>www.wolanchuk.com
>INVESTORLINKS: How do you currently feel about the condition of the
>markets?
>WOLANCHUK: When it becomes hopeless to everybody, which it appears to
>be now… In fact a few weeks ago, with the American Association of Individual
>Investors, you saw 51 percent bears and about 30 percent bulls. That's a flight.
>And rather amazing because the DOW is basically where it was a year, year and
>a half ago. NASDAQ the same way. The market's taken a time out with the
>DOW about 10,000. The same thing happened in 1991 - went side ways, drove
>everybody crazy. It's taken a great breather. Interestingly, we get all the
>bluebirds out and you've heard the words"crash" and"bubble" and every other
>thing from these bears.
>INVESTORLINKS: The word"recession" has been mentioned more than a few
>times recently.
>WOLANCHUK: Yes. After the crash of 1987, we had a recession and the
>market went straight up. Recession, fear of the stock market, everybody moving
>into money market funds and talk of bear markets is what bottoms are made out
>of. Proof of that is in the technical picture. While this has been going on, the
>base 52-week new highs have been steadily climbing for a year now - the stocks
>making new 52-week highs. Last week, there were over six hundred. The
>weekly Advance/Decline line just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing.
>Technically, we've got a fabulous situation in the moving averages of put/call
>ratios. We've got numbers that we haven't seen in years. We've got an ARMS
>index in the moving average - the last time that I saw 130. I can't remember
>seeing a ten day ARMS at 130. Even while the DOW has been going up here,
>recently, the five-day trend has been staying above eight hundred. That's
>incredible! The DOW, where is it? It's over 1000 out of the October low. In the
>mean time, we've got everybody being chased out of the stock market. It's
>absolutely a fabulous situation.
>INVESTORLINKS: Is it fabulous enough that it's time for investors to rush
>back in?
>WOLANCHUK: They're not going to do it no matter what I say. If I tell them
>to jump in here with both feet, they're not going to listen to me - just like they
>didn't listen to me after the crash of 1987.
>INVESTORLINKS: For those that do listen to you, what should they expect?
>WOLANCHUK: Every time that we have this situation, the stocks are served
>up on silver platter. The interesting thing is the wipeout in a lot of NASDAQ
>stocks is typical of an industry that attracted a lot of people - the Internet
>business. A horde of people went in there for fast and easy money. A lot of
>these companies, of course, are not going to make it and you had the initial
>shake out. You had all these troubles with financings that turned into death
>spirals.
>INVESTORLINKS: Where do you see the NASDAQ heading?
>WOLANCHUK: When the NASDAQ was at 1800, I said it was going to 5000.
>It's a perfect correction. I haven't seen anything in the wave structure to negate
>my idea that it's going to head - the potential is that the NASDAQ is going to
>start flying up past 10,000 towards 20,000.
>INVESTORLINKS: The NASDAQ?
>WOLANCHUK: Yes, the NASDAQ."Is anybody, who was on margin and who
>got wiped out, going to go near the margin department for probably months or
>years? Of course not."
>INVESTORLINKS: From where to where?
>WOLANCHUK: Past 5000 and a clean shot through 10,000 on it's way to
>20,000.
>INVESTORLINKS: You're going on record that the NASDAQ is going to
>20,000.
>WOLANCHUK: It's going to go beyond that eventually. There's going to be a
>lot of washouts in between. This is the best washout.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're ever going to see an opportunity like
>this again?
>WOLANCHUK: Just like we never saw an opportunity when it made it's low in
>1998. Here we have a situation where everybody got notoriously bullish in the
>NASDAQ. The problem there was they were right being bullish, but they were
>wrong in the way that they executed it. That was by buying stock with
>borrowed funds on margin accounts. It wasn't anything else, but people were
>forced out of the market because of margin selling. Now look how clean this
>market is. Is anybody, who was on margin and who got wiped out, going to go
>near the margin department for probably months or years? Of course not. This
>market is very clean in that regard. So we don't have to worry about forced
>margin selling anymore. We don't have to worry too much about poor
>sentiment. After the crash of 1987 everybody thought, all through the next two
>years, that it was bear market rally. There's nobody going to be calling this a
>bull market for long time even though the weekly Advance/Decline line
>bottomed out a year ago.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're still in a bull market?
>WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. If there's nobody left to sell and everybody's
>bearish…I got the same thing in 1987. I feel a lot better about it now, because
>I'm in the minority. What's so funny is that the media said that the NASDAQ
>had its worst year in history. What they don't say is that, a year ago, the
>NASDAQ is where it is now. For the first six months it was the grandest six
>months in the history of the NASDAQ. Then, you had the worst six months and
>you ended up back where you started. That's exactly what the DOW did in
>1987. All it did was go back to where it was in 1986 and the whole process
>started all over again. It is a hump in a chart that is continuing it's up climb. In
>the meantime, these stop clock bears who yet have to get religion… Can you
>imagine some of these stop clock bears who have been calling for the end of
>Western Civilization for the last fourteen years?
>INVESTORLINKS: What about the bears?
>WOLANCHUK: This market's not going to let them off the hook. Here we are
>above 10,000 pressing 11,000. If I'd told you 15 years ago, after the crash of
>the DOW, when everybody hated it, that they would hate it just as much above
>10,000 you would have thought I was a nut. Here we are above 10,000 and
>everybody hates it. We are at a high level consolidation that's been stretching
>out for a year and a half or so in the DOW and the NASDAQ - a flawless ABC.
>What we call an ABC irregular flat correction in terms of Elliot where the
>B-Wave made the high at five thousand. Until proven other wise, anybody who
>says we're in a bear market - and at the end and we'll never see these highs
>again for years, which we've heard a lot of… You've got to remember where all
>this talk came from. It came from the people who missed the entire advance to
>begin with. They have really no credentials to be making those kinds of
>statements. In the meantime I never thought that I would be in the minority
>bullish camp once again with the DOW pressing eleven thousand. It's a rather
>fabulous situation. All these companies that have taken whacks like Intel (INTC,
>Chart, Boards), General Motors (GM, Chart, Boards). There's some of these
>DOW stocks actually are screaming new highs like the banking stocks. What
>we've had is a rotational exercise, which is typical of a high level consolidation
>in the primary market. While the secondary and most speculative market, as
>you know the NASDAQ, has gotten it's comeuppance because of the margin
>buying.
>INVESTORLINKS: Where does that leave us?
>WOLANCHUK: Now we've got a cleaned up market where nobody is going to
>go near the margin desk. We're set up for a resumption of the bull market. In
>certain sectors the bull markets been intact for quite awhile.
>INVESTORLINKS: What about the market's short-term prospects?
>WOLANCHUK: Actually, the markets have been rallying while the NASDAQ is
>re-testing its prior lows. The Wilshire Small Cap on a weekly basis has a
>great-looking chart pattern as far as I'm concerned. It's declined and held its
>150-week moving average. It's a mile out of its hole made in 1998. It's a classic
>little consolidation. But, if you look at the NASDAQ it's only declined in three
>waves off the top. If you're an Elliot Wave Analyst and you're bearish, you've
>got to say to yourself,"If that's only three waves, and that's the second wave
>pull back, a third wave blast of historic proportion can absolutely be born out of
>that." Because of that potential, I'm certainly not going to miss it, if that's going
>to happen. The wave structure of the NASDAQ certainly allows for that. Here
>we are with a VIX Index (CBOE Market Volatility Index) still above 30 percent.
>It's been hovering above 30 percent since September. It's taken a stab to 37
>percent during that time frame. This is a long period of high VIX readings
>without any solid detraction in a primary market. This is bullish. A market that
>looks ugly and doesn't go down is a market that you want to own.
>INVESTORLINKS: What are your thoughts on the recovering telecom sector?
>WOLANCHUK: There's no doubt about it, but the telecom sector has gotten
>awfully oversold, even more oversold than the NASDAQ. A lot of these wire
>houses couldn't stand it so I think they put out a big buy on AT&T (T, Chart,
>Boards). Here's a stock that technically appears like it's going to go all the way
>back to $60/share because of the gap situation. When a futures contract, or a
>stock, declines or advances leaving lots of gaps in the chart, all of those gaps
>eventually get filled. Intel (INTC, Chart, Boards) in my view is a prime
>candidate for that. INTC left all these huge gaps all the way down and Intel has
>got $75/share written all over it because of these gaps. The same thing with
>Microsoft (MSFT, Chart, Boards). I'm seeing Microsoft going back to$112,
>$115 or higher. It's the gap rule. The only reason that the NASDAQ declined in
>the first place was to fill all the gaps it left, when it initially thrust out of the hole
>over a year ago. There were three large gaps. They went down and filled them
>all. We had the S&P 500 futures bottom over a week ago at 1288. The next day
>it opened on a huge gap.
>INVESTORLINKS: How soon should we expect these strong moves?
>WOLANCHUK: We've been through some speedy moves here. We've had a
>bull market and a bear market - people going from extraordinarily bullish to
>extraordinarily bearish, all within a number of months. These things are moving
>really fast. Look at the volatility we've seen in the last number of weeks. We
>went through this 1991. While this is going on, sentiment is improving. It's just
>like 1991 all over again. It went up and down, drove everybody crazy for over a
>year. Not much has changed.
>INVESTORLINKS: Are you pretty much saying that we should expect more
>volatility.
>WOLANCHUK: I think we've had the bulk of it. My only concern is the cycles.
>We've got a four-year cycle due in 2002.
>INVESTORLINKS: What does that mean?
>"What everybody is anticipating, in my view, could prove to be something
>similar to what we saw in 1987: The market going crazy."
>WOLANCHUK: That means it's going to be marked by something. Let me give
>you an example. We had a four-year cycle low due in 1986. Everybody
>prepared themselves for it in early 1986 as measured by the daily
>Advance/Decline line. It topped out and started declining, declining, declining as
>everybody bailed out in anticipation of a four year cycle that was due in 1986.
>In September 1986, we got some sort of hammering job, but in December of
>1986, the daily A/D line was making twelve-month lows while the DOW was
>virtually at historic highs. That got everybody really bearish. Then, the market
>exploded to the August 1987 peak. There were all kinds of technical problems
>there. The 1986 four-year cycle low basically was met in 1987. The next four
>year cycle low if you count forward four years was 1990. Remember how ugly
>that was? Then, four years later was 1994. Remember how ugly that was? Four
>years later was 1998. So here we are, four years later from 1998, we have
>2002. Somewhere between here and there, it appears that everybody is
>preparing for this four-year cycle, by bailing out of the stock market in
>anticipation of it. What everybody is anticipating, in my view, could prove to be
>something similar to what we saw in 1987: The market going crazy.
>INVESTORLINKS: Can you clarify how the NASDAQ fits into this?
>WOLANCHUK: Basically from the 1998 low, the NASDAQ has retraced
>exactly 75 percent of that entire advance in a clean three-wave fashion, which is
>exactly what the DOW did in 1987. It went back to the area of the prior
>consolidation. It was a consolidation in 1999. All through that year was choppy.
>It went up very slowly. I'm saying that the NASDAQ is set up, until the wave
>structure says other wise, to go through 5000 like a hot knife through butter - to
>go through 10,000 and a move towards 20,000.
>INVESTORLINKS: Over what period of time? Five years?
>WOLANCHUK: No, the percentage. Remember it is based on percentages. If
>I'm right, the third wave is going to be a lot faster than the move that NASDAQ
>made from the 1998 low to this past high (March 2000). It should probably take
>half the time that it took on that last big move. If I'm right, we'll go through
>5000 inside this year sometime.
>INVESTORLINKS: Inside this year? Are you serious?
>WOLANCHUK: It did it before. It went from 1200 to 5000 in a space of a year
>(and some). We've had a three-wave decline. If indeed that's a second wave
>pull back. It still counts that way. A third wave is going to be kind of fast and
>furious. Because of that potential, I'm certainly not going to say it's not going to
>happen. I'm going to be prepared for it if it does.
>INVESTORLINKS: Could you explain how this works?
>WOLANCHUK: At the end of a second wave pull back, a second wave pull
>back is … they've got a lot of things going for them. People have got to be
>convinced that they will never see the highs again. People have to be convinced
>that they don't want any part of it. We're seeing a lot of this. After the markets
>crashed in 1987, one of the prominent bears said that the chance of the DOW
>getting above 2700 was 10 percent. Here we are above 10,000. By the way,
>that bear is still bearish. It is very tough being bullish because the market makes
>it easy to be bearish.
>INVESTORLINKS: So which sectors are going to be hot?
>WOLANCHUK: The sectors that everybody hates.
>INVESTORLINKS: Such as tech stocks?
>WOLANCHUK: Take the technology sector - completely sold out as far as I'm
>concerned. Retail? Everybody loves to hate retail. In the meantime, we see
>Home Depot (HD, Chart, Boards) has already gone from $35/share to
>$52/share over the last number of weeks. Intel has got the kind of formations
>that I'm just drooling over because of all the gaps left open above the market.
>I'm rather excited about what I see.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think the markets will struggle this year?
>WOLANCHUK: It's going to be a mental struggle. I don't know about the price
>struggle. I don't think there is going to be a price struggle. I think there is going
>to be a mental struggle. People are going to struggle with price.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you mean that investors are going to be looking at an
>up market and won't believe that it could go higher?
>WOLANCHUK: They did that in 1987 after the crash. If you got caught and
>got wiped out, you're not going to go near the stock market. Investors will listen
>to high profile bearish gurus who will be telling them it's a bear market rally. We
>had a prime example of that happening after 1987. Now I'm even more bullish
>because of the recent correction.
>INVESTORLINKS: Is there anything that would change your mind?
>WOLANCHUK: Yes, if the American Association of Individual Investors got up
>to 75 percent bulls and we got euphoric all over again. That's going to come.
>INVESTORLINKS: How soon?
>"There's going to be a lot of people that will start chasing - if I'm right and we've
>finished up a second wave correction in NASDAQ and it starts to melt up."
>WOLANCHUK: At the top of the next third wave blast. There's going to be a
>lot of people that will start chasing - if I'm right and we've finished up a second
>wave correction in NASDAQ and it starts to melt up. There are no sellers left
>because everybody's bailed out of the stock market. People are going to be
>chasing stocks. Not everybody is just going to stand around and call it a bear
>market rally forever. When you chase stocks in a sold out market, you see the
>net results. It goes absolutely hairy. Look at what the NASDAQ did coming out
>of the 1998 hole. It was so doom and gloom in the 1998 low. It went from 1200
>and it doubled in price vertically in a matter of weeks.
>INVESTORLINKS: Which stocks should investors consider at this point?
>WOLANCHUK: You just spread it around. Qualcomm (QCOM, Chart,
>Boards), in my view, is a great situation, Some of the blue chips, like SBC
>Communications (SBC, Chart, Boards). It wouldn't surprise me to see General
>Motors (GM, Chart, Boards) take off. Disney (DIS, Chart, Boards) is another.
>Procter and Gamble (PG, Chart, Boards) is another great looking situation. It
>got whacked and it came back nicely. It's consolidating. There's huge gaps just
>above the market all the way up to $85/share. It should take out $118/share or
>$120/share. It's been there before.
>INVESTORLINKS: Should we expect optimism over the coming year?
>WOLANCHUK: No. I don't want optimism. I want rising prices against the
>background of pessimism. Something like we saw through 1988 and 1989.
>INVESTORLINKS: Is that the bull market climbing the wall of worry?
>WOLANCHUK: Of course that's what we want and that's what we're going to
>get. You know how we're going to get the wall of worry? It goes up slow. It
>could be fast. There's two ways of leaving the world behind. The market goes
>up super fast, catches everybody. Or the markets go up slow with lots of
>correction. Everybody hates it all the way up because of that. It takes nothing to
>move this DOW two hundred, three, four, five hundred points anymore. When
>we see the epicenter of Primary Wave Three, there is going to be a
>thousand-point up day in the DOW. It's coming.
>INVESTORLINKS: Could the NASDAQ make a thousand-point gain in one
>day?
>WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. You can't have the epicenter Primary Wave Three
>of Three to the upside unless it is broad-based. All sectors going up in unison.
>That is a broad move. The last time we saw a broad move like that was coming
>out of the 1982 low.
>INVESTORLINKS: Any advice to investors who sold short this market or
>selling it short?
>WOLANCHUK: I hope they stay short.
>INVESTORLINKS
>Follow Ups:
>
>Post a Reply
>Name:
>EMail:
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>
>
>
> [ Read Replies ] [ Post a Reply ] [ Crystal Ball ]


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>Fand aber schon, beim ersten Überfliegen, dass da ein paar Argumente drin sind.... nicht bloss Behauptungen. Wie wär's mit einer gründlichen Widerlegung?
>M.

Das ist am allerbesten:

INVESTORLINKS: Could the NASDAQ make a thousand-point gain in one
day?

WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. You can't have the epicenter Primary Wave Three
of Three to the upside unless it is broad-based. All sectors going up in unison.
That is a broad move. The last time we saw a broad move like that was coming
out of the 1982 low.

Also sind wir erst am Anfang. Denn 1982 war der Anfang...

Und wenn eine 3 der 3 der 3 (JüKüs"Filetstück") gleich am Anfang steht - ja dann, dann kann wirklich nichts mehr schief gehen.

Hoffentlich...


d.



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>>
>fulminaten Goldanstieg an 800 vorhergesagt!!! Volltreffer...hahahaha


..hab gehört in Saalbach-Hinterglemm soll die Sau los sein.. so ähnlich wie Ischgl. Wenn ich nur jetzt hier weg könnte. Was treibt sich bei euch denn so rum, Schweden, Holländer, Piefkes,.. liegt schon genug Schnee?

Grüsse black elk

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>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're still in a bull market?
>WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. If there's nobody left to sell and everybody's
>bearish…

Dies als kleiner Extrakt. Bullshit hoch 3.

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>>>
>>fulminaten Goldanstieg an 800 vorhergesagt!!! Volltreffer...hahahaha
>
>..hab gehört in Saalbach-Hinterglemm soll die Sau los sein.. so ähnlich wie Ischgl. Wenn ich nur jetzt hier weg könnte. Was treibt sich bei euch denn so rum, Schweden, Holländer, Piefkes,.. liegt schon genug Schnee?
>Grüsse black elk

Servus black elk,

Schnee haben wir genug.Ischgl hat es von uns gelernt,ab und zu übertrumpft
der Lehrbub seinen Lehrmeister,aber wir haben sie (Ischgl) schon wieder beim
Schwlawidchen.
Nach Deinen vergangen Beträgen (vorgestern,gestern)habe ich festgestellt dass
Du zum globalen Völkertum ganz eine eigene Meinung vertritts.Da war doch einmal
eine Zeit wo viele so dachten wie du.
Saalbach Hinterglemm ist ein internationaler WIntersportort mit ca:
50% Bundesbürger 15% Benelux 15% Ã-sterreicher und 20% andere.

Ãœberzeugt Dich doch einmal selber.
www.aparthotel-adler.com

PS:Hoffentlich bekomme ich keine gelbe Karte von JÜKÜ

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>Ãœberzeugt Dich doch einmal selber.
>www.aparthotel-adler.com
>PS:Hoffentlich bekomme ich keine gelbe Karte von JÜKÜ

Gelbe Karte? Ich hoffe, ich kriege eine, oder sind 1-Wochen-Gutscheine bei euch nicht gelb?

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>Nach Deinen vergangen Beträgen (vorgestern,gestern)habe ich festgestellt dass
>Du zum globalen Völkertum ganz eine eigene Meinung vertritts.Da war doch einmal
>eine Zeit wo viele so dachten wie du.

Aber Schwaigi,

du musst nich jeden der das Thema anspricht gleich in diese Ecke stellen! Wenn du meine Beiträge seit längerem verfolgst, versuche ich möglichst objektiv an die Sache heranzugehen. Was von anderen da hineingedeutet wird, kann ich leider nicht beeinflussen.

Das z.B. von unserer Bundesregierung gerade 400.000 Rinder vernichtet werden sollen interessiert die Moralapostel und 'Gegen Rechts' Kämpfer scheinbar überhaupt nicht. So ist das eben, was für einen Menschen man vor sich hat merkt man erst in Extremsituationen. Alles andere ist doch nur Gerede.

Gruß black elk

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>>Ãœberzeugt Dich doch einmal selber.
>>www.aparthotel-adler.com
>>PS:Hoffentlich bekomme ich keine gelbe Karte von JÜKÜ
>Gelbe Karte? Ich hoffe, ich kriege eine, oder sind 1-Wochen-Gutscheine bei euch nicht gelb?

Hi,

sach mal so (komme aus Oberbayern, bin also extrem kenntnisreich, und weile sehr oft in the very Swiss Alps): Das war ein richtig guter Link und ich habe mir alles angeschaut. Auch 3 D (ist das wirklich ein Aquarium da im Hintergrund, wo's zum Essen geht?). So etwas wärmt doch das Herz, und der Hinweis, dass man da auch ohne Pickerl hinkommt, ist obendrein erfrischend.

Sobald ich in der Nähe bin, z.B. um meinen alten Freund und Kumpel Thomas Bubendorfer Mal wieder nicht (!!!!) aus der Free-Climb-Wand fallen zu sehen - ja, da schau ich doch vorbei (wie in so manchen anderen Adressen, die einem auf diesem Board so unterkommen; nur gemach..., gilt vor allem in Richtung FL).

Gruß + Kompliment für die Web-Seite!

d.

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>>>Ãœberzeugt Dich doch einmal selber.
>>>www.aparthotel-adler.com
>>>PS:Hoffentlich bekomme ich keine gelbe Karte von JÜKÜ
>>Gelbe Karte? Ich hoffe, ich kriege eine, oder sind 1-Wochen-Gutscheine bei euch nicht gelb?
>Hi,
>sach mal so (komme aus Oberbayern, bin also extrem kenntnisreich, und weile sehr oft in the very Swiss Alps): Das war ein richtig guter Link und ich habe mir alles angeschaut. Auch 3 D (ist das wirklich ein Aquarium da im Hintergrund, wo's zum Essen geht?). So etwas wärmt doch das Herz, und der Hinweis, dass man da auch ohne Pickerl hinkommt, ist obendrein erfrischend.
>Sobald ich in der Nähe bin, z.B. um meinen alten Freund und Kumpel Thomas Bubendorfer Mal wieder nicht (!!!!) aus der Free-Climb-Wand fallen zu sehen - ja, da schau ich doch vorbei (wie in so manchen anderen Adressen, die einem auf diesem Board so unterkommen; nur gemach..., gilt vor allem in Richtung FL).
>Gruß + Kompliment für die Web-Seite!
>d.

Welche Ehre beschert mich denn heute?
Immer herzlich willkommen.

Ein schönes Wochenende
wünscht Schwaigi

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