-->können die Krise beschleunigen.

Die Asian Times berichtet (Auszüge aus längerem Artikel):

Once it hurts the US domestic base and, thus, re-election prospects, it's time for a change. Sacrifice remains the duty of others. As we all wait to see what happens - or doesn't - on Tuesday, a few things of real import are already clear. A new ethos will flow from Washington toward a jilted world and recently damned"evil dictators". It will be along the lines of"let's make a deal".

For this there is the US dealmaker extraordinaire, former secretary of state James A Baker III. The new policy will go as far in modesty - while meeting America's immodest strategic regional needs - as the last policy departed from humility and, in its darker moments, rationality.

The Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by Baker and Lee H Hamilton, will conclude that the US needs to make deals with Syria, Iran and the rest of a timid world to assure that the US can escape Iraq without a total loss of its long-term interest.

Why the change?
The war in Iraq and its subsequent nation-building exercise have created a direct cost to the American taxpayer of about US$340 billion to date. Not only has this large investment not yielded the promised returns, the costs sunk in this situation are climbing with every continued minute of the United States' involvement.

More troubling still is that there is no reason to believe that increased investment will, in any way, improve the chances of receiving the desired results. Furthermore, although the $340 billion figure is truly alarming, the amount doesn't even begin to disclose all costs.

The human costs are staggering. This is true for US forces, contractors and families and for Iraqis in general. Economist Brad DeLong estimates that for every month the war in Iraq is extended, the human bill is about 100 American soldiers killed, 500 American soldiers maimed and perhaps 4,000 Iraqis dead.

David Walker, the comptroller general of the United States, has put together a deficit-awareness road trip. The message from Walker's bipartisan fellow road-trippers is simple and clear. The US government is on a fast track to financial ruin. He features the following insights on his travels:"If the United States government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more...

There is a coming showdown between rising taxes and spending cuts - now a foregone conclusion.

In short, the US federal government has overspent and over-borrowed like there was no tomorrow. A reckoning is overdue and a softer economy is already on us. It is the hour of difficult choice.

No matter which party emerges from the mid-term elections with voting control, this administration will function as a lame duck while the nation waits until 2008 for the possibility of new initiatives to tackle its increasingly serious challenges. The president and his allies have lost the control that until recently they had arrogantly taken for granted.

Thus we will see them make a deal. It is politically more acceptable and practically manageable to make a visible change in Iraq than to attempt to tackle more intractable problems.

The deal the US will likely pursue
The most visible change will be in the office of the secretary of defense. Either Donald Rumsfeld will depart or he will stay in place as a figurehead. The Iraq Study Group will take over Iraq planning and advising. It will likely present the president with clear policy options that contradict the rhetoric of establishing democracy in Iraq.

The most palatable choice to the White House will likely be the"stability first" option. This policy choice argues that the military should focus on stabilizing Baghdad while the US Embassy should work toward a political accommodation with insurgents.

We anticipate the offer of a new deal to the world based on the same agenda. Given the sensitive state of the US macroeconomy, looming government budget issues and America's diminished power position in the Middle East, there is no real other choice.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HK08Ak01.html

[i]Eine Neuorientierung beinhaltet auf jeden Fall zumindest den Versuch die aktuellen extremen Ausgaben (Irak) einzudämmen und zu vermindern.
Allein dieser Schritt, sollte er Erfolg haben, wird an den Finanzmärkten erhebliche kontraktive Impulse auslösen, so dass u.U. sogar die Zinsen wieder fallen werden, so es der US-Dollar in den Augen der FED gestattet.
Auf jeden Fall ergäben sich daraus auch negative Rückwirkungen auf die boomende US Rüstungsindustrie.

Ob es dazu jedoch kommen wird oder Bush doch noch den Angriff auf den Iran befiehlt, was zu befürchten ist, wird das nächste halbe Jahr zeitigen.