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Der folgende Beitrag kommt wieder aus dem Crystal Ball Board (sagt Bescheid wenn der Querbeschuß euch nervt) - der Meister selbst Peter Eliades - und es geht um die Symetrie DJ composite Index (chart als link weiter unten) und den zuvor erwähnten Tilt von Larry Haimson (black elk: es war NICHT der Nas comp! aber trotzem Danke für den Hinweis weiter unten bzgl. Prechter). Was meint ihr: Läßt sich der DJ Comp wirklich nur als so seltenes AB top zählen? Black elk, kannst Du vielleicht mal den Elwave Count einstellen? Wie steht ihr zum lnagfristigen Puts auf den DOW - direkt oder erst die 10300 abwarten? Könnte das Ding nicht auch nach oben explodieren, bin zwar technisch nicht so bewandt, aber sieht aus wie eine invertet S-H-S Formation, gibts das als Konsolidierung?
Belex
http://www.village2000.com/moneymachine/crystalball/messages/3850.html (längerfristige Ansicht)
From: Peter Eliades
Date Posted: January 22, 2001 at 03:13:37
Subject: Dow Composite Average-My Way
I must admit to enjoying the commentary on this site and I have personally commented on the excellent work of Larry Haimsohn in the past. I have also seen some of Tree's excellent commentary on the old Elliott Wave site of my buddy Bob Prechter. Eric Hadick and I have been exchanging newsletters for several years and I always enjoy his excellent work. The reason I am posting here now is to straighten out any possible misconception there may be about my discoveries on the Dow Composite Average. The easiest way to do that is to present you with the text of my nightly update written Friday evening just after finishing my latest newsletter. I dont usually give away information that is meant for my subscribers, but this pattern was such an exciting discovery for me and the great majority of you are serious market students, so here it is-the text of my nightly update from Friday, January 19, 2001. I hope you enjoy it and can benefit from iy in some way. Good luck to you all and keep up the good work:
Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, January 19th.
We usually enjoy writing our newsletter every three weeks. It gives us a chance to
challenge our thinking and to explore market idiosyncrasies that others may not look at.
The newsletter which we just finished today was admittedly somewhat of a
struggle. There were no burning issues to explore and, although our bearishness had
been tempered somewhat because of some of the Trading Index readings, we had no
revelations to divulge that might further explain our stubborn bearishness. After we
finished writing the newsletter this afternoon, we relaxed for half an hour. Generally,
our method of relaxing entails further examination of stock charts and indicators
looking for that point of light that might illuminate the overall market
picture. God only knows why we pulled up a chart of the Dow Composite Average, but we
did. We usually refer to it on an intermittent basis because we feel it gives a fresh
look at the combined 65 stocks in the three Dow averages that one does not
get from looking at the averages separately. In fact, we were quite surprised to see
that the Dow Composite average has been comfortably above its own 200 day moving
average for the past three months. We say we were surprised because we knew that
both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Utilities were below their 200 day moving
averages. We also did not realize that, just three weeks ago, the Dow Composite
Average came very close to challenging its all time high that was registered on May
13th,
1999. We happened to be looking at a closing price chart which went back to early
1999. Then, out of nowhere, it struck us. There was a very obvious low that was
registered on March 7th, 2000. The symmetry backwards and forwards from that March
7th low was striking and quite obvious to the naked eye.
That's when we dove into the pattern headfirst. Working backwards in time from the
March 7th, 2000 low to the October 15th, 1999 low, there was a period of 98 market
days. Moving forward from the March 7th low the same 98 trading days took us to a
July 26th trading low. Going back 134 trading days from the March 7th low took us to
the August 25th, 1999 top. Going forward 132 trading days (two days shorter) took us
to the September 13th, 2000 top on the Dow Composite. Moving backward 170
trading days from the March 7th low took us to the day between the little double top of
July 2nd and July 7th, 1999. Moving forward the same 170 trading days from March 7th
took us to the exact closing high on November 6th. Moving back 196 trading
days took us to the low of May 25th, 1999. Moving forward 198 trading days (two days
longer) took us to the important short-term low of December 15th, 2000.
Now comes the piece de resistance. Moving back exactly 206 trading days from March
7th, 2000 to the all time high close on the Dow Composite average on May 13th, 1999
gave us a count of 206 trading days. Counting forward exactly 206 trading days
took us to December 28th, 2000. We do not know if you have an accessible chart of the
Dow Composite Average. If you do, please examine it. Now, just over three weeks later,
the potential importance of the December 28th high might already be etched
in history. The Dow Composite has already fallen 6.4% from the intra-day high of
December 29th to the intra-day low of January 16th.
The most important aspect of the pattern is what happens next. We actually translated
the pattern to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the symmetry, although not as
exacting as the Dow Composite, is enticing nonetheless. Moving back from the
March 7th close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the May 10th, 1999 high is 209
trading days. Moving forward the same 209 trading days from March 7th, 2000 takes us
to January 3rd, 2001. On that day, the Dow reached above 11,000 intra-day and
closed at its highest level in almost two months. It has not closed higher since.
Looking at this pattern, it is our contention it will not close higher, perhaps for a long
time to come. Remember the diamond formation that everyone has been
talking about for the last 6-9 months? The left hand termination of the diamond pattern
(actually the initiation of the diamond pattern in real time before anyone knew it would
be a diamond pattern ) occurred on May 10th, 1999, the same point that we
used to measure the Dow's symmetry forward from March 7th, 2000 that gave us the
exact day of January 3rd, 2001. Don't be foolish enough to think that the symmetrical
pattern will answer all the market's puzzles, but do be smart enough to let it
guide us in the future until it stops being symmetrical.
Here comes the fun part. If the symmetry continues to any degree, then the move to the
left of May 10th, 1999 can be a guideline as to what to expect after January 3rd, 2001.
So far, the guideline has been fairly accurate. Let's report to you what
happened over what period of time, moving backwards from May 10th, 1999, and how
that would translate in the future if the pattern remains symmetrical. The following
day counts work backwards from May 10th, 1999 and forward from January 3rd, 2001.
1) the Dow drops 1221 points in 27 market days. That translates to Dow 9725 on
February 12th.
2) the Dow drops 1731 points in 47 trading days. That translates to 9215 on March
13th.
3) the Dow drops 2311 points in 100 trading days. That translates to 8635 on May 29th.
4) the Dow drops 3374 points in 151 trading days. That translates to 7572 by August
9th.
At this point, the update is probably as long as today's market letter, but we hope you
agree it is fascinating material. All we will add is that the sentiment numbers are
screamingly bearish (i. e. even the bears have been converted to bulls). We
believe the time has come for some bears to taste the honey. It has been a long time
coming.
Mutual fund switchers- Rydex switchers are 100% in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select
switchers are 100% in Select American Gold. All mutual fund switchers should call the
telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and call each
market evening.
Stock index futures traders-you sold short the exact high of the day to day at the
opening price of 1,369.50 on the March S&P futures. We believe this could work out to
be a position trade. On Monday, place your stops at 1,364.70.
There are no new projections on the XAU or on bonds. We have had some subscriber
requests for projections on the Nasdaq Composite and the NDX 100. We will try to work
that into our updates over the next few weeks. Have a great weekend. We will
talk to you on Monday.
<ul> ~ DJ Comp Symetrie</ul>
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