Abwaertsrisiken dominieren,so dass US-Wirtschaft sich in 2001 substantiell abschwaechen wird
Wachstum koennte sich zum Jahreswechsel wegen Korrektur bei Lagerbestaenden abgeflacht haben.
Die schnellere wirtschaftliche Korrektur hat Fed veranlasst, freuher u. aggressiver zu handeln.
Abschwaechende Weltwirtschaft koennte sich negativ auf Exporte auswirken
Einige Teile der Maerkte erholen sich, Anleger sind aber nervoes
Uebergang zu einem schwaechern Wirtschaftswachstum koennte nicht nahtlos von statten gehen.
Schwierig fuer geldpolitik mit deutlichen Rueckgang des Verbraucher-u. Geschaeftsvertrauen umzugehen.

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>Abwaertsrisiken dominieren,so dass US-Wirtschaft sich in 2001 substantiell abschwaechen wird
>Wachstum koennte sich zum Jahreswechsel wegen Korrektur bei Lagerbestaenden abgeflacht haben.
>Die schnellere wirtschaftliche Korrektur hat Fed veranlasst, freuher u. aggressiver zu handeln.
>Abschwaechende Weltwirtschaft koennte sich negativ auf Exporte auswirken
>Einige Teile der Maerkte erholen sich, Anleger sind aber nervoes
>Uebergang zu einem schwaechern Wirtschaftswachstum koennte nicht nahtlos von statten gehen.
>Schwierig fuer geldpolitik mit deutlichen Rueckgang des Verbraucher-u. Geschaeftsvertrauen umzugehen.

Hier: a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2001/February/Testimony.htm">http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2001/February/Testimony.htm</a>


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>Abwaertsrisiken dominieren,so dass US-Wirtschaft sich in 2001 substantiell abschwaechen wird
>Wachstum koennte sich zum Jahreswechsel wegen Korrektur bei Lagerbestaenden abgeflacht haben.
>Die schnellere wirtschaftliche Korrektur hat Fed veranlasst, freuher u. aggressiver zu handeln.
>Abschwaechende Weltwirtschaft koennte sich negativ auf Exporte auswirken
>Einige Teile der Maerkte erholen sich, Anleger sind aber nervoes
>Uebergang zu einem schwaechern Wirtschaftswachstum koennte nicht nahtlos von statten gehen.
>Schwierig fuer geldpolitik mit deutlichen Rueckgang des Verbraucher-u. Geschaeftsvertrauen umzugehen.

Teil 2

Verbrauchervertrauen ist niedriger aber nach wie vor konsistent mit dem Wachstum.
Zinssenkung der FED im Januar werden das Klima niedriger Inflation nicht beeintraechtigen.
Keine Inflationsgefahr durch hoehere Energiekosten.
Prognostizierter Energiepreisrueckgang wird wirtschaftliche Erholung in kommenden Quartalen unterstuetzen.
Aussichten fuer langfristiges Produktivitaetswachstum bleibt weiter gut.
US-Firmen sind weiter optimistisch,dass die Technologiebranche, Produktivitaet u. Gewinne steigern.


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>Abwaertsrisiken dominieren,so dass US-Wirtschaft sich in 2001 substantiell abschwaechen wird

Und sieh und sieh an weißer Wand...

>Wachstum koennte sich zum Jahreswechsel wegen Korrektur bei Lagerbestaenden abgeflacht haben.

KÃ-NNTE? Erinnert mich an Ernie aus der Sesamstraße:"Könnte so gewesen sein? Es ist nicht so gewesen, aber können könnte es."
In Wirklichkeit soll das heißen: der große Alan weiß es nicht!

>Die schnellere wirtschaftliche Korrektur hat Fed veranlasst, freuher u. aggressiver zu handeln.
>Abschwaechende Weltwirtschaft koennte sich negativ auf Exporte auswirken

Die Exporte müssen jetzt schon in Schutt & Asche liegen. Die US-Wirtschaft bekommt nun die Rechnung für die Hochdollarpolitik präsentiert: der steigende Dollar hat nur die Börsen mit zusätzlicher Liquidität aus dem Ausland versorgt, aber keiner wollte es wahrhaben, wie der Dollarkurs die US-Wirtschaft in die Mangel nimmt.

>Einige Teile der Maerkte erholen sich, Anleger sind aber nervoes

Eigentlich hat AG ein Wunder vollbracht: der Dow ist immer noch über 10000...
Dass die Anleger"nervös sind", ist eine Warnung: Werft eure IPOs in den Mülleimer. Ihr werdet keine Deppen mehr finden, die eure Shares zu Phantasiepreisen abnehmen. Dieses Spielchen ist vorbei!

in diesem Zusammenhang eine Frage: gibt es Statistiken über durchgeführte & verschobene IPOs in den letzten Monaten?

>Uebergang zu einem schwaechern Wirtschaftswachstum koennte nicht nahtlos von statten gehen.

Schwächer? Null? Minus?

>Schwierig fuer geldpolitik mit deutlichen Rueckgang des Verbraucher-u. Geschaeftsvertrauen umzugehen.

Vertrauen ist alles. Wenns weg ist...

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Nach Teil 1 hatte ich schon Sorgen um Greeny. Aber Teil 2 hat mich wieder beruhigt. Wir leben doch in der Besten aller Börsenwelten.
Schön vor allem der unerschütterliche Optimismus in niedrige Energiepreise.
Vielleicht kommt ja bald der Tag, an dem die Araber uns Geld zahlen, dass wir ihr schmutziges Rohöl entsorgen. Schätze spätestens 2010:)
Grüße
R.


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>Abwaertsrisiken dominieren,so dass US-Wirtschaft sich in 2001 substantiell abschwaechen wird
>Wachstum koennte sich zum Jahreswechsel wegen Korrektur bei Lagerbestaenden abgeflacht haben.
>Die schnellere wirtschaftliche Korrektur hat Fed veranlasst, freuher u. aggressiver zu handeln.
>Abschwaechende Weltwirtschaft koennte sich negativ auf Exporte auswirken
>Einige Teile der Maerkte erholen sich, Anleger sind aber nervoes
>Uebergang zu einem schwaechern Wirtschaftswachstum koennte nicht nahtlos von statten gehen.
>Schwierig fuer geldpolitik mit deutlichen Rueckgang des Verbraucher-u. Geschaeftsvertrauen umzugehen.

Er sagt:
"It is difficult for economic policy to deal with the abruptness of a break in confidence. There may not be a seamless transition from high to moderate to low confidence on the part of businesses, investors, and consumers. Looking back at recent cyclical epi sodes, we see that the change in attitudes has often been sudden. In earlier testimony, I likened this process to water backing up against a dam that is finally breached. The torrent carries with it most remnants of certainty and euphoria that built up in earlier periods.

This unpredictable rending of confidence is one reason that recessions are so difficult to forecast. They may not be just changes in degree from a period of economic expansion, but a different process engendered by fear. Our economic models have never been particularly successful in capturing a process driven in large part by nonrational behavior."

Und bitte lesen, was er am 27.08.99 gesagt hat:
http://www.juekue.de/greenspan.htm

Auszug:
~"But history suggests that they also reflect waves of optimism and pessimism that can be touched off by seemingly small exogenous events."
~"An individual's degree of risk aversion may vary through time and possibly be subject to herd instincts."
~"... like so many other aspects of human nature, has not materially changed over the generations."
~"It has become evident time and again that when events are unexpected, more complex, and move more rapidly than is the norm, human beings become less able to cope. The failure to be able to comprehend external events almost invariably induces fear and, hence, disengagement from an activity, whether it be entering a dark room or taking positions in markets. And attempts to disengage from markets that are net long--the most general case--means bids are hit and prices fall."
~"...especially when investors hold highly leveraged positions..."
~"But from time to time, this process has broken down as investors suffer an abrupt collapse of comprehension of, and confidence in, future economic events. It is almost as though, like a dam under mounting water pressure, confidence appears normal until the moment it is breached."
~"Risk aversion in such an instance rises dramatically, and deliberate trading strategies are replaced by rising fear-induced disengagement. Yield spreads on relatively risky assets widen dramatically."

Und jetzt:

~"History tells us that sharp reversals in confidence happen abruptly, most often with little advance notice. These reversals can be self-reinforcing processes that can compress sizable adjustments into a very short time period. Panic market reactions are characterized by dramatic shifts in behavior to minimize short-term losses. Claims on far-distant future values are discounted to insignificance. What is so intriguing is that this type of behavior has characterized human interaction with little appreciable difference over the generations. Whether Dutch tulip bulbs or Russian equities, the market price patterns remain much the same."

Damals hat ihn niemand verstanden....


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>Teil 2
>Verbrauchervertrauen ist niedriger aber nach wie vor konsistent mit dem Wachstum.

Was heißt: ABER konsistent? Wenn das Wachstum zurückgeht, geht das Vertrauen zurück? Klar. Wieso dann"aber"?

>Zinssenkung der FED im Januar werden das Klima niedriger Inflation nicht beeintraechtigen.

Propaganda

>Keine Inflationsgefahr durch hoehere Energiekosten.

Vermutlich sind wir schon darüber hinaus. Wenn ich an Kalifornien denke: was da läuft, ist etwas, womit man in der oft von unseren Wirtschaftscracks beschworenen DD rechnen müssen
Hardy

>Prognostizierter Energiepreisrueckgang wird wirtschaftliche Erholung in kommenden Quartalen unterstuetzen.
>Aussichten fuer langfristiges Produktivitaetswachstum bleibt weiter gut.
>US-Firmen sind weiter optimistisch,dass die Technologiebranche, Produktivitaet u. Gewinne steigern.


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Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
February 13, 2001

I appreciate the opportunity this morning to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on monetary policy.

The past decade has been extraordinary for the American economy and monetary policy. The synergies of key technologies markedly elevated prospective rates of return on high-tech investments, led to a surge in business capital spending, and significantly increased the underlying growth rate of productivity. The capitalization of those higher expected returns boosted equity prices,

Unsinn, es war die klassische disinflationäre Hausse, die er nie kapiert. Egal was für"capitalization" usw. - es wäre immer (!) zum Exzess gekommen.

>contributing to a substantial pickup in household spending on new homes, durable goods, and other types of consumption generally, beyond even that implied by the enhanced rise in real incomes.

Klarext: Kein"Spending", sondern ein exzessives Schuldenmachen ("beyond").

>When I last reported to you in July, economic growth was just exhibiting initial signs of slowing from what had been an exceptionally rapid and unsustainable rate of increase that began a year earlier.

Und warum hat er damals nichts gemacht? Wozu sind denn wohl"initial signs" da?

>The surge in spending had lifted the growth of the stocks of many types of consumer durable goods and business capital equipment to rates that could not be continued.

"could not" - warum wohl nicht? Weil es in die finale Senkrechte gegangen ist, z.B. bei YHOO?

>The elevated level of light vehicle sales, for example, implied a rate of increase in the number of vehicles on the road hardly sustainable for a mature industry.

Ach ja, Parkplatzprobleme vor dem Fed-Gebäude? Dann musse eben noch ne Tiefgarage bauen, Alan, Penner!

Und dann"mature" - was soll denn das sein? Wir sind doch nicht im Obstgarten.

>And even though demand for a number of high-tech products was doubling or tripling annually, in many cases new supply was coming on even faster. Overall, capacity in high-tech manufacturing industries rose nearly 50 percent last year, well in excess of its rapid rate of increase over the previous three years. Hence, a temporary glut in these industries and falling prospective rates of return were inevitable at some point.

Binse, Du Pennier!

>Clearly, some slowing in the pace of spending was necessary and expected if the economy was to progress along a balanced and sustainable growth path.

Noch ne Binse!

>But the adjustment has occurred much faster than most businesses anticipated, with the process likely intensified by the rise in the cost of energy that has drained business and household purchasing power.

Der wird nie kapieren, was"purchasing power" ist. Haben die Leute, die den hohen Ã-lpreis kassierten, das Geld unters Kopfkissen gelegt? Hatten die etwa keine"purchasing power"?

>Purchases of durable goods and investment in capital equipment declined in the fourth quarter. Because the extent of the slowdown was not anticipated by businesses,

Ach nee. Sind die Unternehmer drüben tatsächlich so blöd? Selbst das kleine JüKü-Board hat doch seit Sommer 2000 die Nummer heraufziehen sehen. Nitte nachlesen.

>Reflecting these growing imbalances, manufacturing purchasing managers reported last month that inventories in the hands of their customers had risen to excessively high levels.

Gibts denn drüben kein Telefon? Sind die vorbeigefahren, um sich die überquellenden Lagerbestände anzugucken? Alle purchasing managers sofort feuern!

>As a result, a round of inventory rebalancing appears to be in progress. Accordingly, the slowdown in the economy that began in the middle of 2000 intensified, perhaps even to the point of growth stalling out around the turn of the year.

Wie gesagt, war"middle of 2000" bereits bestens zu merken.

>As the economy slowed, equity prices fell, especially in the high-tech sector,

Das ist nun absoluter Quark. So nach dem Motto: Wirtschaft rauf, Kurse rauf und vice versa.

>where previous high valuations and optimistic forecasts were being reevaluated, resulting in significant losses for some investors. In addition, lenders turned more cautious. This tightening of financial conditions, itself, contributed to restraint on spending.

Jetzt kommt's Thema...

>Against this background, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) undertook a series of aggressive monetary policy steps. At its December meeting,

Agressive? Ja, mit nem halben Punkt hinterherschieben. Und warum erst im Dezember? Man glaubt es nicht, was dem aus dem Maule perlt!

>the FOMC shifted its announced assessment of the balance of risks to express concern about economic weakness, which encouraged declines in market interest rates. Then on January 3, and again on January 31, the FOMC reduced its targeted federal funds rate 1/2 percentage point, to its current level of 5-1/2 percent. An essential precondition for this type of response was that underlying cost and price pressures remained subdued, so that our front-loaded actions were unlikely to jeopardize the stable, low inflation environment necessary to foster investment and advances in productivity.

Bla, bla.

>The exceptional weakness so evident in a number of economic indicators toward the end of last year (perhaps in part the consequence of adverse weather)

Und verweigert's Wetter seine Huld, ist der arme Petrus schuld.

>apparently did not continue in January. But with signs of softness still patently in evidence at the time of its January meeting, the FOMC retained its sense that the risks are weighted toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.

>Crucial to the assessment of the outlook and the understanding of recent policy actions is the role of technological change and productivity in shaping near-term cyclical forces as well as long-term sustainable growth.

Da haben wir auch wieder das Produktivitäts-Gegurke. Und die ewig gleiche Ausrede aller Versager: Near Term wars (ists) halt anders als Long Term.

>The prospects for sustaining strong advances in productivity in the years ahead remain favorable. As one would expect, productivity growth has slowed along with the economy.

Ist gerade umgekehrt: gehts runter, klotzen alle eher mehr als weniger ran - schon allein aus Jobangst!

>But what is notable is that, during the second half of 2000, output per hour advanced at a pace sufficiently impressive to provide strong support for the view that the rate of growth of structural productivity remains well above its pace of a decade ago.

Siehe oben. Der Schwindel der Dekade!

>Moreover, although recent short-term business profits have softened considerably, most corporate managers appear not to have altered to any appreciable extent their long-standing optimism about the future returns from using new technology. A recent survey of purchasing managers suggests that the wave of new on- line business-to-business activities is far from cresting.

Far from cresting? Faaabelhaft, vgl. Prechter: The Crest of the Tidal Wave...

>Corporate managers more generally, rightly or wrongly, appear to remain remarkably sanguine about the potential for innovations to continue to enhance productivity and profits. At least this is what is gleaned from the projections of equity analysts,

Na, mit diesen"Experten" zu kommen ist nun wirklich das Allerletzte. Warum nennt er nicht gleich Henry Blodget, den Internet-Totalversager von Merrill Lynch?!

>who, one must presume, obtain most of their insights from corporate managers. According to one prominent survey, the three- to five-year average earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of diminishing in recent months, have generally held firm at a very high level. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued strength in capital accumulation and sustained elevated growth of structural productivity over the longer term.

Strenght, growth, productivity, longer term - es reicht!

>The same forces that have been boosting growth in structural productivity seem also to have accelerated the process of cyclical adjustment. Extraordinary improvements in business-to- business communication have held unit costs in check, in part by greatly speeding up the flow of information. New technologies for supply-chain management and flexible manufacturing imply that businesses can perceive imbalances in inventories at a very early stage--virtually in real time--and can cut production promptly in response to the developing signs of unintended inventory building.

Our most recent experience with some inventory backup, of course, suggests that surprises can still occur and that this process is still evolving.


Surprises? Quelle surpise!

>Nonetheless, compared with the past, much progress is evident.

Und erst Mal compared with the 19th century!

>A couple of decades ago, inventory data would not have been available to most firms until weeks had elapsed, delaying a response and, hence, eventually requiring even deeper cuts in production. In addition, the foreshortening of lead times on delivery of capital equipment, a result of information and other newer technologies, has engendered a more rapid adjustment of capital goods production to shifts in demand that result from changes in firms' expectations of sales and profitability. A decade ago, extended backlogs on capital equipment meant a more stretched-out process of production adjustments.

Even consumer spending decisions have become increasingly responsive to changes in the perceived profitability of firms through their effects on the value of households' holdings of equities. Stock market wealth has risen substantially relative to income in recent years -itself a reflection of the extraordinary surge of innovation.

Innovations also. Na toll. So was gab's ja noch nie in der Geschichte. Aber vielleicht hat er jetzt erst das Web entdeckt.

>As a consequence, changes in stock market wealth have become a more important determinant of shifts in consumer spending relative to changes in current household income than was the case just five to seven years ago.

DER KERN DER SACHE!

>The hastening of the adjustment to emerging imbalances is generally beneficial. It means that those imbalances are not allowed to build until they require very large corrections. But the faster adjustment process does raise some warning flags. Although the newer technologies have clearly allowed firms to make more informed decisions, business managers throughout the economy also are likely responding to much of the same enhanced body of information. As a consequence, firms appear to be acting in far closer alignment with one another than in decades past. The result is not only a faster adjustment, but one that is potentially more synchronized, compressing changes into an even shorter time frame.

Tja, Alan, alles läuft halt a bisserl fixer ab als früher.

>This very rapidity with which the current adjustment is proceeding raises another concern, of a different nature. While technology has quickened production adjustments, human nature remains unaltered.

Ach so, der arme Mensch kommt da nicht mehr mit? Süß! Er ist doch durch und durch"Humanist".

>We respond to a heightened pace of change and its associated uncertainty in the same way we always have. We withdraw from action, postpone decisions, and generally hunker down until a renewed, more comprehensible basis for acting emerges. In its extreme manifestation, many economic decisionmakers not only become risk averse but attempt to disengage from all risk. This precludes taking any initiative, because risk is inherent in every action.

Dies ist nun wirklich ganz neu - es gibt Risiken! Potzblitz!

>In the fall of 1998, for example, the desire for liquidity became so intense that financial markets seized up. Indeed, investors even tended to shun risk-free, previously issued Treasury securities in favor of highly liquid, recently issued Treasury securities.

But even when decisionmakers are only somewhat more risk averse, a process of retrenchment can occur. Thus, although prospective long-term returns on new high-tech investment may change little, increased uncertainty can induce a higher discount of those returns and, hence, a reduced willingness to commit liquid resources to illiquid fixed investments.

Lari und fari.

>Such a process presumably is now under way and arguably may take some time to run its course. It is not that underlying demand for Internet, networking, and communications services has become less keen. Instead, as I noted earlier, some suppliers seem to have reacted late to accelerating demand, have overcompensated in response, and then have been forced to retrench -a not-unusual occurrence in business decisionmaking.

Not unusual? Wann hat der eigentlich zum letzten Mal mit einem Unternehmer gesprochen? Hat der überhaupt schon mal eine Firma von innen gesehen?

>A pace of change outstripping the ability of people to adjust is just as evident among consumers as among business decisionmakers. When consumers become less secure in their jobs and finances, they retrench as well.

Auch eine absolut neue Erkenntnis. Vergelt's Gott!

>It is difficult for economic policy to deal with the abruptness of a break in confidence.

JAAA, Alan, da bisse platt. Aber das ist doch just Dein Job - oder?


>There may not be a seamless transition from high to moderate to low confidence on the part of businesses, investors, and consumers. Looking back at recent cyclical epi sodes, we see that the change in attitudes has often been sudden. In earlier testimony, I likened this process to water backing up against a dam that is finally breached. The torrent carries with it most remnants of certainty and euphoria that built up in earlier periods.

Episodes schreibt man zuammen, der ist schon so von der Rolle, dass er seine Texte nicht mehr durchliest.

This unpredictable rending of confidence is one reason that recessions are so difficult to forecast.

Wenns das weißt, warum hasse dann nicht damit gerechnet, Blödmann!

>They may not be just changes in degree from a period of economic expansion, but a different process engendered by fear. Our economic models have never been particularly successful in capturing a process driven in large part by nonrational behavior.

Our models - Müll, Müll, Müll!

>Although consumer confidence has fallen, at least for now it remains at a level that in the past was consistent with economic growth. And as I pointed out earlier, expected earnings growth over the longer-run continues to be elevated. If the forces contributing to long-term productivity growth remain intact, the degree of retrenchment will presumably be limited. Prospects for high productivity growth should, with time, bolster both consumption and investment demand. Before long in this scenario, excess inventories would be run off to desired levels.

"Bolster" - na die Nummer wollen wir doch sehen!

>Still, as the FOMC noted in its last announcement, for the period ahead, downside risks predominate. In addition to the possibility of a break in confidence, we don't know how far the adjustment of the stocks of consumer durables and business capital equipment has come. Also, foreign economies appear to be slowing, which could damp demands for exports; and, although some sectors of the financial markets have improved in recent weeks, continued lender nervousness still is in evidence in other sectors.

Ja, schau her, auch die Lender werden nervös...

Rest kann ich mir sparen. Er hat endlich den Schurken entdeckt - high energy prices.

Economic Projections
The members of the Board of Governors and the Reserve Bank presidents foresee an implicit strengthening of activity after the current rebalancing is over,

Ja, er ist ein V-Mann! Schnell runter, schnell wieder rauf.

>At its late January meeting, the FOMC discussed this issue at length, and it is taking several steps to help better position the Federal Reserve to address the alternatives. First, as announced on January 31, the Committee extended the temporary authority, in effect since late August 1999, for the Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to conduct repurchase agreements in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the agencies as well as in Treasuries and direct agency debt. Thus, for the time being, the Desk will continue to rely on the same types of temporary open market operations in use for the past year and a half to offset transitory factors affecting reserve availability.

Das ist also die Rettungsinsel. Leider wird sie nicht alle tragen!

Second, the FOMC is examining the possibility of beginning to acquire under repurchase agreements some additional assets that the Federal Reserve Act already authorizes the Federal Reserve to purchase. In particular, the FOMC asked the staff to explore the possible mechanisms for backing our usual repurchase operations with the collateral of certain debt obligations of U.S. states and foreign governments.

Noch ne Insel. Hoch interessant. Muss man sich auf der Zunge zergehen lassen.Foreign Governments. Er wird Sambia sicher nicht vergessen!

>We will also be consulting with the Congress on these possible steps before the FOMC further considers such transactions. Taking such assets in repurchase operations would significantly expand and diversify the assets our counterparties could post in temporary open market operations, reducing the potential for any impact on the pricing of private sector instruments.

Klarext: Das wasser steht zum Halse...

>Finally, the FOMC decided to study further the even longer- term issue of whether it will ultimately be necessary to expand the use of the discount window or to request the Congress for a broadening of its statutory authority for acquiring assets via open market operations.

Also wird er auch noch Wall Stret leer kaufen... ("broadening...").

>How quickly the FOMC will need to address these longer-run portfolio choices will depend on how quickly the supply of Treasury securities declines as well as the usefulness of the alternative assets already authorized by law.

Neues Gesetz her, und dann geht's...

In summary, although a reduced availability of Treasury securities will require adjustments in the particular form of our open market operations, there is no reason to believe that we will be unable to implement policy as required.

In summary: Die erste Schleuse ist geöffnet - Hyperinflation, ick hör Dir trapsen!

Entmündigt diesen Mann!

Gruß

d.

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>Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
>Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress
>Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
>February 13, 2001
>I appreciate the opportunity this morning to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on monetary policy.
>The past decade has been extraordinary for the American economy and monetary policy. The synergies of key technologies markedly elevated prospective rates of return on high-tech investments, led to a surge in business capital spending, and significantly increased the underlying growth rate of productivity. The capitalization of those higher expected returns boosted equity prices,
>Unsinn, es war die klassische disinflationäre Hausse, die er nie kapiert. Egal was für"capitalization" usw. - es wäre immer (!) zum Exzess gekommen.
>>contributing to a substantial pickup in household spending on new homes, durable goods, and other types of consumption generally, beyond even that implied by the enhanced rise in real incomes.
>Klarext: Kein"Spending", sondern ein exzessives Schuldenmachen ("beyond").
>>When I last reported to you in July, economic growth was just exhibiting initial signs of slowing from what had been an exceptionally rapid and unsustainable rate of increase that began a year earlier.
>Und warum hat er damals nichts gemacht? Wozu sind denn wohl"initial signs" da?
>>The surge in spending had lifted the growth of the stocks of many types of consumer durable goods and business capital equipment to rates that could not be continued.
>"could not" - warum wohl nicht? Weil es in die finale Senkrechte gegangen ist, z.B. bei YHOO?
>>The elevated level of light vehicle sales, for example, implied a rate of increase in the number of vehicles on the road hardly sustainable for a mature industry.
>Ach ja, Parkplatzprobleme vor dem Fed-Gebäude? Dann musse eben noch ne Tiefgarage bauen, Alan, Penner!
>Und dann"mature" - was soll denn das sein? Wir sind doch nicht im Obstgarten.
>>And even though demand for a number of high-tech products was doubling or tripling annually, in many cases new supply was coming on even faster. Overall, capacity in high-tech manufacturing industries rose nearly 50 percent last year, well in excess of its rapid rate of increase over the previous three years. Hence, a temporary glut in these industries and falling prospective rates of return were inevitable at some point.
>Binse, Du Pennier!
>>Clearly, some slowing in the pace of spending was necessary and expected if the economy was to progress along a balanced and sustainable growth path.
>Noch ne Binse!
>>But the adjustment has occurred much faster than most businesses anticipated, with the process likely intensified by the rise in the cost of energy that has drained business and household purchasing power.
>Der wird nie kapieren, was"purchasing power" ist. Haben die Leute, die den hohen Ã-lpreis kassierten, das Geld unters Kopfkissen gelegt? Hatten die etwa keine"purchasing power"?
>>Purchases of durable goods and investment in capital equipment declined in the fourth quarter. Because the extent of the slowdown was not anticipated by businesses,
>Ach nee. Sind die Unternehmer drüben tatsächlich so blöd? Selbst das kleine JüKü-Board hat doch seit Sommer 2000 die Nummer heraufziehen sehen. Nitte nachlesen.
>>Reflecting these growing imbalances, manufacturing purchasing managers reported last month that inventories in the hands of their customers had risen to excessively high levels.
>Gibts denn drüben kein Telefon? Sind die vorbeigefahren, um sich die überquellenden Lagerbestände anzugucken? Alle purchasing managers sofort feuern!
>>As a result, a round of inventory rebalancing appears to be in progress. Accordingly, the slowdown in the economy that began in the middle of 2000 intensified, perhaps even to the point of growth stalling out around the turn of the year.
>Wie gesagt, war"middle of 2000" bereits bestens zu merken.
>>As the economy slowed, equity prices fell, especially in the high-tech sector,
>Das ist nun absoluter Quark. So nach dem Motto: Wirtschaft rauf, Kurse rauf und vice versa.
>>where previous high valuations and optimistic forecasts were being reevaluated, resulting in significant losses for some investors. In addition, lenders turned more cautious. This tightening of financial conditions, itself, contributed to restraint on spending.
>Jetzt kommt's Thema...
>>Against this background, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) undertook a series of aggressive monetary policy steps. At its December meeting,
>Agressive? Ja, mit nem halben Punkt hinterherschieben. Und warum erst im Dezember? Man glaubt es nicht, was dem aus dem Maule perlt!
>>the FOMC shifted its announced assessment of the balance of risks to express concern about economic weakness, which encouraged declines in market interest rates. Then on January 3, and again on January 31, the FOMC reduced its targeted federal funds rate 1/2 percentage point, to its current level of 5-1/2 percent. An essential precondition for this type of response was that underlying cost and price pressures remained subdued, so that our front-loaded actions were unlikely to jeopardize the stable, low inflation environment necessary to foster investment and advances in productivity.
>Bla, bla.
>>The exceptional weakness so evident in a number of economic indicators toward the end of last year (perhaps in part the consequence of adverse weather)
>Und verweigert's Wetter seine Huld, ist der arme Petrus schuld.
>>apparently did not continue in January. But with signs of softness still patently in evidence at the time of its January meeting, the FOMC retained its sense that the risks are weighted toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
>>Crucial to the assessment of the outlook and the understanding of recent policy actions is the role of technological change and productivity in shaping near-term cyclical forces as well as long-term sustainable growth.
>Da haben wir auch wieder das Produktivitäts-Gegurke. Und die ewig gleiche Ausrede aller Versager: Near Term wars (ists) halt anders als Long Term.
>>The prospects for sustaining strong advances in productivity in the years ahead remain favorable. As one would expect, productivity growth has slowed along with the economy.
>Ist gerade umgekehrt: gehts runter, klotzen alle eher mehr als weniger ran - schon allein aus Jobangst!
>>But what is notable is that, during the second half of 2000, output per hour advanced at a pace sufficiently impressive to provide strong support for the view that the rate of growth of structural productivity remains well above its pace of a decade ago.
>Siehe oben. Der Schwindel der Dekade!
>>Moreover, although recent short-term business profits have softened considerably, most corporate managers appear not to have altered to any appreciable extent their long-standing optimism about the future returns from using new technology. A recent survey of purchasing managers suggests that the wave of new on- line business-to-business activities is far from cresting.
>Far from cresting? Faaabelhaft, vgl. Prechter: The Crest of the Tidal Wave...
>>Corporate managers more generally, rightly or wrongly, appear to remain remarkably sanguine about the potential for innovations to continue to enhance productivity and profits. At least this is what is gleaned from the projections of equity analysts,
>Na, mit diesen"Experten" zu kommen ist nun wirklich das Allerletzte. Warum nennt er nicht gleich Henry Blodget, den Internet-Totalversager von Merrill Lynch?!
>>who, one must presume, obtain most of their insights from corporate managers. According to one prominent survey, the three- to five-year average earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of diminishing in recent months, have generally held firm at a very high level. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued strength in capital accumulation and sustained elevated growth of structural productivity over the longer term.
>Strenght, growth, productivity, longer term - es reicht!
>>The same forces that have been boosting growth in structural productivity seem also to have accelerated the process of cyclical adjustment. Extraordinary improvements in business-to- business communication have held unit costs in check, in part by greatly speeding up the flow of information. New technologies for supply-chain management and flexible manufacturing imply that businesses can perceive imbalances in inventories at a very early stage--virtually in real time--and can cut production promptly in response to the developing signs of unintended inventory building.
>Our most recent experience with some inventory backup, of course, suggests that surprises can still occur and that this process is still evolving.
>
>Surprises? Quelle surpise!
>>Nonetheless, compared with the past, much progress is evident.
>Und erst Mal compared with the 19th century!
>>A couple of decades ago, inventory data would not have been available to most firms until weeks had elapsed, delaying a response and, hence, eventually requiring even deeper cuts in production. In addition, the foreshortening of lead times on delivery of capital equipment, a result of information and other newer technologies, has engendered a more rapid adjustment of capital goods production to shifts in demand that result from changes in firms' expectations of sales and profitability. A decade ago, extended backlogs on capital equipment meant a more stretched-out process of production adjustments.
>Even consumer spending decisions have become increasingly responsive to changes in the perceived profitability of firms through their effects on the value of households' holdings of equities. Stock market wealth has risen substantially relative to income in recent years -itself a reflection of the extraordinary surge of innovation.
>Innovations also. Na toll. So was gab's ja noch nie in der Geschichte. Aber vielleicht hat er jetzt erst das Web entdeckt.
>>As a consequence, changes in stock market wealth have become a more important determinant of shifts in consumer spending relative to changes in current household income than was the case just five to seven years ago.
>DER KERN DER SACHE!
>>The hastening of the adjustment to emerging imbalances is generally beneficial. It means that those imbalances are not allowed to build until they require very large corrections. But the faster adjustment process does raise some warning flags. Although the newer technologies have clearly allowed firms to make more informed decisions, business managers throughout the economy also are likely responding to much of the same enhanced body of information. As a consequence, firms appear to be acting in far closer alignment with one another than in decades past. The result is not only a faster adjustment, but one that is potentially more synchronized, compressing changes into an even shorter time frame.
>Tja, Alan, alles läuft halt a bisserl fixer ab als früher.
>>This very rapidity with which the current adjustment is proceeding raises another concern, of a different nature. While technology has quickened production adjustments, human nature remains unaltered.
>Ach so, der arme Mensch kommt da nicht mehr mit? Süß! Er ist doch durch und durch"Humanist".
>>We respond to a heightened pace of change and its associated uncertainty in the same way we always have. We withdraw from action, postpone decisions, and generally hunker down until a renewed, more comprehensible basis for acting emerges. In its extreme manifestation, many economic decisionmakers not only become risk averse but attempt to disengage from all risk. This precludes taking any initiative, because risk is inherent in every action.
>Dies ist nun wirklich ganz neu - es gibt Risiken! Potzblitz!
>>In the fall of 1998, for example, the desire for liquidity became so intense that financial markets seized up. Indeed, investors even tended to shun risk-free, previously issued Treasury securities in favor of highly liquid, recently issued Treasury securities.
>But even when decisionmakers are only somewhat more risk averse, a process of retrenchment can occur. Thus, although prospective long-term returns on new high-tech investment may change little, increased uncertainty can induce a higher discount of those returns and, hence, a reduced willingness to commit liquid resources to illiquid fixed investments.
>Lari und fari.
>>Such a process presumably is now under way and arguably may take some time to run its course. It is not that underlying demand for Internet, networking, and communications services has become less keen. Instead, as I noted earlier, some suppliers seem to have reacted late to accelerating demand, have overcompensated in response, and then have been forced to retrench -a not-unusual occurrence in business decisionmaking.
>Not unusual? Wann hat der eigentlich zum letzten Mal mit einem Unternehmer gesprochen? Hat der überhaupt schon mal eine Firma von innen gesehen?
>>A pace of change outstripping the ability of people to adjust is just as evident among consumers as among business decisionmakers. When consumers become less secure in their jobs and finances, they retrench as well.
>Auch eine absolut neue Erkenntnis. Vergelt's Gott!
>>It is difficult for economic policy to deal with the abruptness of a break in confidence.
>JAAA, Alan, da bisse platt. Aber das ist doch just Dein Job - oder?
>
>>There may not be a seamless transition from high to moderate to low confidence on the part of businesses, investors, and consumers. Looking back at recent cyclical epi sodes, we see that the change in attitudes has often been sudden. In earlier testimony, I likened this process to water backing up against a dam that is finally breached. The torrent carries with it most remnants of certainty and euphoria that built up in earlier periods.
>Episodes schreibt man zuammen, der ist schon so von der Rolle, dass er seine Texte nicht mehr durchliest.
>This unpredictable rending of confidence is one reason that recessions are so difficult to forecast.
>Wenns das weißt, warum hasse dann nicht damit gerechnet, Blödmann!
>>They may not be just changes in degree from a period of economic expansion, but a different process engendered by fear. Our economic models have never been particularly successful in capturing a process driven in large part by nonrational behavior.
>Our models - Müll, Müll, Müll!
>>Although consumer confidence has fallen, at least for now it remains at a level that in the past was consistent with economic growth. And as I pointed out earlier, expected earnings growth over the longer-run continues to be elevated. If the forces contributing to long-term productivity growth remain intact, the degree of retrenchment will presumably be limited. Prospects for high productivity growth should, with time, bolster both consumption and investment demand. Before long in this scenario, excess inventories would be run off to desired levels.
>"Bolster" - na die Nummer wollen wir doch sehen!
>>Still, as the FOMC noted in its last announcement, for the period ahead, downside risks predominate. In addition to the possibility of a break in confidence, we don't know how far the adjustment of the stocks of consumer durables and business capital equipment has come. Also, foreign economies appear to be slowing, which could damp demands for exports; and, although some sectors of the financial markets have improved in recent weeks, continued lender nervousness still is in evidence in other sectors.
>Ja, schau her, auch die Lender werden nervös...
>Rest kann ich mir sparen. Er hat endlich den Schurken entdeckt - high energy prices.
>Economic Projections
>The members of the Board of Governors and the Reserve Bank presidents foresee an implicit strengthening of activity after the current rebalancing is over,
>Ja, er ist ein V-Mann! Schnell runter, schnell wieder rauf.
>>At its late January meeting, the FOMC discussed this issue at length, and it is taking several steps to help better position the Federal Reserve to address the alternatives. First, as announced on January 31, the Committee extended the temporary authority, in effect since late August 1999, for the Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to conduct repurchase agreements in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the agencies as well as in Treasuries and direct agency debt. Thus, for the time being, the Desk will continue to rely on the same types of temporary open market operations in use for the past year and a half to offset transitory factors affecting reserve availability.
>Das ist also die Rettungsinsel. Leider wird sie nicht alle tragen!
>Second, the FOMC is examining the possibility of beginning to acquire under repurchase agreements some additional assets that the Federal Reserve Act already authorizes the Federal Reserve to purchase. In particular, the FOMC asked the staff to explore the possible mechanisms for backing our usual repurchase operations with the collateral of certain debt obligations of U.S. states and foreign governments.
>Noch ne Insel. Hoch interessant. Muss man sich auf der Zunge zergehen lassen.Foreign Governments. Er wird Sambia sicher nicht vergessen!
>>We will also be consulting with the Congress on these possible steps before the FOMC further considers such transactions. Taking such assets in repurchase operations would significantly expand and diversify the assets our counterparties could post in temporary open market operations, reducing the potential for any impact on the pricing of private sector instruments.
>Klarext: Das wasser steht zum Halse...
>>Finally, the FOMC decided to study further the even longer- term issue of whether it will ultimately be necessary to expand the use of the discount window or to request the Congress for a broadening of its statutory authority for acquiring assets via open market operations.
>Also wird er auch noch Wall Stret leer kaufen... ("broadening...").
>>How quickly the FOMC will need to address these longer-run portfolio choices will depend on how quickly the supply of Treasury securities declines as well as the usefulness of the alternative assets already authorized by law.
>Neues Gesetz her, und dann geht's...
>In summary, although a reduced availability of Treasury securities will require adjustments in the particular form of our open market operations, there is no reason to believe that we will be unable to implement policy as required.
>In summary: Die erste Schleuse ist geöffnet - Hyperinflation, ick hör Dir trapsen!
>Entmündigt diesen Mann!
>Gruß
>d.


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Haben Sie schon mal die Möglichkeit in Betracht gezogen, daß AG nur den Hilflosen mimt?

JeFra

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>Nach Teil 1 hatte ich schon Sorgen um Greeny. Aber Teil 2 hat mich wieder beruhigt. Wir leben doch in der Besten aller Börsenwelten.
>Schön vor allem der unerschütterliche Optimismus in niedrige Energiepreise.
>Vielleicht kommt ja bald der Tag, an dem die Araber uns Geld zahlen, dass wir ihr schmutziges Rohöl entsorgen. Schätze spätestens 2010:)
>Grüße
>R.

Salut Rumpelstilzchen,

Unsere,"Patti" in L.A, schreibt uns jeden Tag, sie haben Alarmstufe 2, Das bedeutet das der Strom fuer Std. abgeschallten wird, fuer Haushalt u. Gewerbe.
Zur Zeit laeuft die Anhoehrung von Alan G., werde Dir versuchen das Frage und Antwortspiel aus dem Bloomberg zu senden, kann aber nicht versprechen ob es klappt, wenn nicht dann eben in Auszügen.

gruss almoehi


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>Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
>Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress
>Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
>February 13, 2001
>I appreciate the opportunity this morning to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on monetary policy.
>The past decade has been extraordinary for the American economy and monetary policy. The synergies of key technologies markedly elevated prospective rates of return on high-tech investments, led to a surge in business capital spending, and significantly increased the underlying growth rate of productivity. The capitalization of those higher expected returns boosted equity prices,
>Unsinn, es war die klassische disinflationäre Hausse, die er nie kapiert. Egal was für"capitalization" usw. - es wäre immer (!) zum Exzess gekommen.
>>contributing to a substantial pickup in household spending on new homes, durable goods, and other types of consumption generally, beyond even that implied by the enhanced rise in real incomes.
>Klarext: Kein"Spending", sondern ein exzessives Schuldenmachen ("beyond").
>>When I last reported to you in July, economic growth was just exhibiting initial signs of slowing from what had been an exceptionally rapid and unsustainable rate of increase that began a year earlier.
>Und warum hat er damals nichts gemacht? Wozu sind denn wohl"initial signs" da?
>>The surge in spending had lifted the growth of the stocks of many types of consumer durable goods and business capital equipment to rates that could not be continued.
>"could not" - warum wohl nicht? Weil es in die finale Senkrechte gegangen ist, z.B. bei YHOO?
>>The elevated level of light vehicle sales, for example, implied a rate of increase in the number of vehicles on the road hardly sustainable for a mature industry.
>Ach ja, Parkplatzprobleme vor dem Fed-Gebäude? Dann musse eben noch ne Tiefgarage bauen, Alan, Penner!
>Und dann"mature" - was soll denn das sein? Wir sind doch nicht im Obstgarten.
>>And even though demand for a number of high-tech products was doubling or tripling annually, in many cases new supply was coming on even faster. Overall, capacity in high-tech manufacturing industries rose nearly 50 percent last year, well in excess of its rapid rate of increase over the previous three years. Hence, a temporary glut in these industries and falling prospective rates of return were inevitable at some point.
>Binse, Du Pennier!
>>Clearly, some slowing in the pace of spending was necessary and expected if the economy was to progress along a balanced and sustainable growth path.
>Noch ne Binse!
>>But the adjustment has occurred much faster than most businesses anticipated, with the process likely intensified by the rise in the cost of energy that has drained business and household purchasing power.
>Der wird nie kapieren, was"purchasing power" ist. Haben die Leute, die den hohen Ã-lpreis kassierten, das Geld unters Kopfkissen gelegt? Hatten die etwa keine"purchasing power"?
>>Purchases of durable goods and investment in capital equipment declined in the fourth quarter. Because the extent of the slowdown was not anticipated by businesses,
>Ach nee. Sind die Unternehmer drüben tatsächlich so blöd? Selbst das kleine JüKü-Board hat doch seit Sommer 2000 die Nummer heraufziehen sehen. Nitte nachlesen.
>>Reflecting these growing imbalances, manufacturing purchasing managers reported last month that inventories in the hands of their customers had risen to excessively high levels.
>Gibts denn drüben kein Telefon? Sind die vorbeigefahren, um sich die überquellenden Lagerbestände anzugucken? Alle purchasing managers sofort feuern!
>>As a result, a round of inventory rebalancing appears to be in progress. Accordingly, the slowdown in the economy that began in the middle of 2000 intensified, perhaps even to the point of growth stalling out around the turn of the year.
>Wie gesagt, war"middle of 2000" bereits bestens zu merken.
>>As the economy slowed, equity prices fell, especially in the high-tech sector,
>Das ist nun absoluter Quark. So nach dem Motto: Wirtschaft rauf, Kurse rauf und vice versa.
>>where previous high valuations and optimistic forecasts were being reevaluated, resulting in significant losses for some investors. In addition, lenders turned more cautious. This tightening of financial conditions, itself, contributed to restraint on spending.
>Jetzt kommt's Thema...
>>Against this background, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) undertook a series of aggressive monetary policy steps. At its December meeting,
>Agressive? Ja, mit nem halben Punkt hinterherschieben. Und warum erst im Dezember? Man glaubt es nicht, was dem aus dem Maule perlt!
>>the FOMC shifted its announced assessment of the balance of risks to express concern about economic weakness, which encouraged declines in market interest rates. Then on January 3, and again on January 31, the FOMC reduced its targeted federal funds rate 1/2 percentage point, to its current level of 5-1/2 percent. An essential precondition for this type of response was that underlying cost and price pressures remained subdued, so that our front-loaded actions were unlikely to jeopardize the stable, low inflation environment necessary to foster investment and advances in productivity.
>Bla, bla.
>>The exceptional weakness so evident in a number of economic indicators toward the end of last year (perhaps in part the consequence of adverse weather)
>Und verweigert's Wetter seine Huld, ist der arme Petrus schuld.
>>apparently did not continue in January. But with signs of softness still patently in evidence at the time of its January meeting, the FOMC retained its sense that the risks are weighted toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
>>Crucial to the assessment of the outlook and the understanding of recent policy actions is the role of technological change and productivity in shaping near-term cyclical forces as well as long-term sustainable growth.
>Da haben wir auch wieder das Produktivitäts-Gegurke. Und die ewig gleiche Ausrede aller Versager: Near Term wars (ists) halt anders als Long Term.
>>The prospects for sustaining strong advances in productivity in the years ahead remain favorable. As one would expect, productivity growth has slowed along with the economy.
>Ist gerade umgekehrt: gehts runter, klotzen alle eher mehr als weniger ran - schon allein aus Jobangst!
>>But what is notable is that, during the second half of 2000, output per hour advanced at a pace sufficiently impressive to provide strong support for the view that the rate of growth of structural productivity remains well above its pace of a decade ago.
>Siehe oben. Der Schwindel der Dekade!
>>Moreover, although recent short-term business profits have softened considerably, most corporate managers appear not to have altered to any appreciable extent their long-standing optimism about the future returns from using new technology. A recent survey of purchasing managers suggests that the wave of new on- line business-to-business activities is far from cresting.
>Far from cresting? Faaabelhaft, vgl. Prechter: The Crest of the Tidal Wave...
>>Corporate managers more generally, rightly or wrongly, appear to remain remarkably sanguine about the potential for innovations to continue to enhance productivity and profits. At least this is what is gleaned from the projections of equity analysts,
>Na, mit diesen"Experten" zu kommen ist nun wirklich das Allerletzte. Warum nennt er nicht gleich Henry Blodget, den Internet-Totalversager von Merrill Lynch?!
>>who, one must presume, obtain most of their insights from corporate managers. According to one prominent survey, the three- to five-year average earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of diminishing in recent months, have generally held firm at a very high level. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued strength in capital accumulation and sustained elevated growth of structural productivity over the longer term.
>Strenght, growth, productivity, longer term - es reicht!
>>The same forces that have been boosting growth in structural productivity seem also to have accelerated the process of cyclical adjustment. Extraordinary improvements in business-to- business communication have held unit costs in check, in part by greatly speeding up the flow of information. New technologies for supply-chain management and flexible manufacturing imply that businesses can perceive imbalances in inventories at a very early stage--virtually in real time--and can cut production promptly in response to the developing signs of unintended inventory building.
>Our most recent experience with some inventory backup, of course, suggests that surprises can still occur and that this process is still evolving.
>
>Surprises? Quelle surpise!
>>Nonetheless, compared with the past, much progress is evident.
>Und erst Mal compared with the 19th century!
>>A couple of decades ago, inventory data would not have been available to most firms until weeks had elapsed, delaying a response and, hence, eventually requiring even deeper cuts in production. In addition, the foreshortening of lead times on delivery of capital equipment, a result of information and other newer technologies, has engendered a more rapid adjustment of capital goods production to shifts in demand that result from changes in firms' expectations of sales and profitability. A decade ago, extended backlogs on capital equipment meant a more stretched-out process of production adjustments.
>Even consumer spending decisions have become increasingly responsive to changes in the perceived profitability of firms through their effects on the value of households' holdings of equities. Stock market wealth has risen substantially relative to income in recent years -itself a reflection of the extraordinary surge of innovation.
>Innovations also. Na toll. So was gab's ja noch nie in der Geschichte. Aber vielleicht hat er jetzt erst das Web entdeckt.
>>As a consequence, changes in stock market wealth have become a more important determinant of shifts in consumer spending relative to changes in current household income than was the case just five to seven years ago.
>DER KERN DER SACHE!
>>The hastening of the adjustment to emerging imbalances is generally beneficial. It means that those imbalances are not allowed to build until they require very large corrections. But the faster adjustment process does raise some warning flags. Although the newer technologies have clearly allowed firms to make more informed decisions, business managers throughout the economy also are likely responding to much of the same enhanced body of information. As a consequence, firms appear to be acting in far closer alignment with one another than in decades past. The result is not only a faster adjustment, but one that is potentially more synchronized, compressing changes into an even shorter time frame.
>Tja, Alan, alles läuft halt a bisserl fixer ab als früher.
>>This very rapidity with which the current adjustment is proceeding raises another concern, of a different nature. While technology has quickened production adjustments, human nature remains unaltered.
>Ach so, der arme Mensch kommt da nicht mehr mit? Süß! Er ist doch durch und durch"Humanist".
>>We respond to a heightened pace of change and its associated uncertainty in the same way we always have. We withdraw from action, postpone decisions, and generally hunker down until a renewed, more comprehensible basis for acting emerges. In its extreme manifestation, many economic decisionmakers not only become risk averse but attempt to disengage from all risk. This precludes taking any initiative, because risk is inherent in every action.
>Dies ist nun wirklich ganz neu - es gibt Risiken! Potzblitz!
>>In the fall of 1998, for example, the desire for liquidity became so intense that financial markets seized up. Indeed, investors even tended to shun risk-free, previously issued Treasury securities in favor of highly liquid, recently issued Treasury securities.
>But even when decisionmakers are only somewhat more risk averse, a process of retrenchment can occur. Thus, although prospective long-term returns on new high-tech investment may change little, increased uncertainty can induce a higher discount of those returns and, hence, a reduced willingness to commit liquid resources to illiquid fixed investments.
>Lari und fari.
>>Such a process presumably is now under way and arguably may take some time to run its course. It is not that underlying demand for Internet, networking, and communications services has become less keen. Instead, as I noted earlier, some suppliers seem to have reacted late to accelerating demand, have overcompensated in response, and then have been forced to retrench -a not-unusual occurrence in business decisionmaking.
>Not unusual? Wann hat der eigentlich zum letzten Mal mit einem Unternehmer gesprochen? Hat der überhaupt schon mal eine Firma von innen gesehen?
>>A pace of change outstripping the ability of people to adjust is just as evident among consumers as among business decisionmakers. When consumers become less secure in their jobs and finances, they retrench as well.
>Auch eine absolut neue Erkenntnis. Vergelt's Gott!
>>It is difficult for economic policy to deal with the abruptness of a break in confidence.
>JAAA, Alan, da bisse platt. Aber das ist doch just Dein Job - oder?
>
>>There may not be a seamless transition from high to moderate to low confidence on the part of businesses, investors, and consumers. Looking back at recent cyclical epi sodes, we see that the change in attitudes has often been sudden. In earlier testimony, I likened this process to water backing up against a dam that is finally breached. The torrent carries with it most remnants of certainty and euphoria that built up in earlier periods.
>Episodes schreibt man zuammen, der ist schon so von der Rolle, dass er seine Texte nicht mehr durchliest.
>This unpredictable rending of confidence is one reason that recessions are so difficult to forecast.
>Wenns das weißt, warum hasse dann nicht damit gerechnet, Blödmann!
>>They may not be just changes in degree from a period of economic expansion, but a different process engendered by fear. Our economic models have never been particularly successful in capturing a process driven in large part by nonrational behavior.
>Our models - Müll, Müll, Müll!
>>Although consumer confidence has fallen, at least for now it remains at a level that in the past was consistent with economic growth. And as I pointed out earlier, expected earnings growth over the longer-run continues to be elevated. If the forces contributing to long-term productivity growth remain intact, the degree of retrenchment will presumably be limited. Prospects for high productivity growth should, with time, bolster both consumption and investment demand. Before long in this scenario, excess inventories would be run off to desired levels.
>"Bolster" - na die Nummer wollen wir doch sehen!
>>Still, as the FOMC noted in its last announcement, for the period ahead, downside risks predominate. In addition to the possibility of a break in confidence, we don't know how far the adjustment of the stocks of consumer durables and business capital equipment has come. Also, foreign economies appear to be slowing, which could damp demands for exports; and, although some sectors of the financial markets have improved in recent weeks, continued lender nervousness still is in evidence in other sectors.
>Ja, schau her, auch die Lender werden nervös...
>Rest kann ich mir sparen. Er hat endlich den Schurken entdeckt - high energy prices.
>Economic Projections
>The members of the Board of Governors and the Reserve Bank presidents foresee an implicit strengthening of activity after the current rebalancing is over,
>Ja, er ist ein V-Mann! Schnell runter, schnell wieder rauf.
>>At its late January meeting, the FOMC discussed this issue at length, and it is taking several steps to help better position the Federal Reserve to address the alternatives. First, as announced on January 31, the Committee extended the temporary authority, in effect since late August 1999, for the Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to conduct repurchase agreements in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the agencies as well as in Treasuries and direct agency debt. Thus, for the time being, the Desk will continue to rely on the same types of temporary open market operations in use for the past year and a half to offset transitory factors affecting reserve availability.
>Das ist also die Rettungsinsel. Leider wird sie nicht alle tragen!
>Second, the FOMC is examining the possibility of beginning to acquire under repurchase agreements some additional assets that the Federal Reserve Act already authorizes the Federal Reserve to purchase. In particular, the FOMC asked the staff to explore the possible mechanisms for backing our usual repurchase operations with the collateral of certain debt obligations of U.S. states and foreign governments.
>Noch ne Insel. Hoch interessant. Muss man sich auf der Zunge zergehen lassen.Foreign Governments. Er wird Sambia sicher nicht vergessen!
>>We will also be consulting with the Congress on these possible steps before the FOMC further considers such transactions. Taking such assets in repurchase operations would significantly expand and diversify the assets our counterparties could post in temporary open market operations, reducing the potential for any impact on the pricing of private sector instruments.
>Klarext: Das wasser steht zum Halse...
>>Finally, the FOMC decided to study further the even longer- term issue of whether it will ultimately be necessary to expand the use of the discount window or to request the Congress for a broadening of its statutory authority for acquiring assets via open market operations.
>Also wird er auch noch Wall Stret leer kaufen... ("broadening...").
>>How quickly the FOMC will need to address these longer-run portfolio choices will depend on how quickly the supply of Treasury securities declines as well as the usefulness of the alternative assets already authorized by law.
>Neues Gesetz her, und dann geht's...
>In summary, although a reduced availability of Treasury securities will require adjustments in the particular form of our open market operations, there is no reason to believe that we will be unable to implement policy as required.
>In summary: Die erste Schleuse ist geöffnet - Hyperinflation, ick hör Dir trapsen!
>Entmündigt diesen Mann!
>Gruß
>d.


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Ja, er verzapft Schwachsinn, unser aller Greeny. & es ist nur recht und billig, hinzustehen & zu sagen, dass hier Schwachsinn, Unsinn, Hirngespinste, Schwindeleien, vor allem innere Widersprüche verzapft wurden.

Aber zu brüllen"entmündigt ihn" - das haben wir nicht nötig. Das sind dann schon Parolen, denen irgendwelche Fleischerhundeseelen (auch solche mit Bomberjacken, Springerstiefeln & Baseballschlägern) zu gerne hinterherrennen würden, weil sie hoffen, Blut lecken zu dürfen...

Machen wir uns nicht mit solchen gemein.

Ausserdem - entmündigt ist er vermutlich schon längst. Ist all das Gewäsch, das er heute nicht zum ersten Mal von sich gibt, wirklich auf seinem Mist gewachsen? Oder steht schon seit einem Jahr, oder auch länger, ein Unsichtbarer hinter ihm, der ihm einen unsichtbaren Revolverlauf ins Genick drückt & ihm souffliert, was er an Propaganda von sich geben muss? Gar sehen müssen, wie alles an die Wand gefahren wird & nichts dagegen tun, nichts dagegen sagen zu dürfen, weil man ihn sonst...

Um Wolf Biermanns"Ballade von den verdorbenen Greisen" ein wenig abzuwandeln:
"Wir wollen nicht dein Verderben
Du bist schon entmündigt genug
Statt Rache
Nur Rente
im Wandlitzer Getto (muß ich verbessern, ich weiß nicht, in welcher Luxus-Retirement-Residence abgehalfterte WallStreet-Größen so leben)
und Friede deinem letzten Atemzug."

Hardy




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>Ja, er verzapft Schwachsinn, unser aller Greeny. & es ist nur recht und billig, hinzustehen & zu sagen, dass hier Schwachsinn, Unsinn, Hirngespinste, Schwindeleien, vor allem innere Widersprüche verzapft wurden.
>Aber zu brüllen"entmündigt ihn" - das haben wir nicht nötig. Das sind dann schon Parolen, denen irgendwelche Fleischerhundeseelen (auch solche mit Bomberjacken, Springerstiefeln & Baseballschlägern) zu gerne hinterherrennen würden, weil sie hoffen, Blut lecken zu dürfen...

Entmündigen ist kein Springerstiefel-Event, sondern eine kühle Handlung des zuständigen Amtsgertichts.

>Machen wir uns nicht mit solchen gemein.

Nicht doch, das nun wirklich nicht!

>Ausserdem - entmündigt ist er vermutlich schon längst. Ist all das Gewäsch, das er heute nicht zum ersten Mal von sich gibt, wirklich auf seinem Mist gewachsen? Oder steht schon seit einem Jahr, oder auch länger, ein Unsichtbarer hinter ihm, der ihm einen unsichtbaren Revolverlauf ins Genick drückt & ihm souffliert, was er an Propaganda von sich geben muss? Gar sehen müssen, wie alles an die Wand gefahren wird & nichts dagegen tun, nichts dagegen sagen zu dürfen, weil man ihn sonst...

Ach was, der ist sui generis oder suae personae so beschränkt wie wir es erleben.

>Um Wolf Biermanns"Ballade von den verdorbenen Greisen" ein wenig abzuwandeln:
>"Wir wollen nicht dein Verderben
>Du bist schon entmündigt genug
>Statt Rache
>Nur Rente
>im Wandlitzer Getto (muß ich verbessern, ich weiß nicht, in welcher Luxus-Retirement-Residence abgehalfterte WallStreet-Größen so leben)
>und Friede deinem letzten Atemzug."
>Hardy

Nöö, Hardy, bei aller Freundschaft, mit so einer Nummer wie seiner debilen Rede vor dem Senat kann jemand in dieser Position nicht ungeschoren davon kommen.

Der Mann muss schleunigst seiner Geschäftsbefugnisse entkleidet werden. Was er verzapft hat war eine Mixtur von Hilf- und Ahnungslosigeit plus Dämlackerei, die ich in dieser Form (und ich kenne Notenbankchef-Reden seit fast 40 Jahren) noch n i e erlebt habe.

Gruß

d.



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>Haben Sie schon mal die Möglichkeit in Betracht gezogen, daß AG nur den Hilflosen mimt?
>JeFra

Ja, JeFra,

aber ich k e n n e ihn persönlich. Mindestens 5 Treffs. Der verstellt sich nicht. Der ist eitel bis zum Exzess. Und er genießt einen Job, der ihn minder besoldet als jeder Junior Analyst in Wall Street hat, weil er glaubt M a c h t zu haben. Er ist ein klassicher Nullouvert (was man als Skatspieler immer erst weiß, nachdem (!) die Karten auf dem Tisch liegen).

Und diese Rede im Senat war nun wahrlich das Ultimum an Gestöpsel & Hilflosigkeit.

a) Wir wissen nicht was los ist. b) Wir wissen nicht wie es dazu kommen konnte c) Wir waren auf so was auch nicht vorbereitet d) Wir haben es auch nicht kommen sehen ("our models") e) Wenn was sein sollte, holen wir den Knüppel aus dem Sack und kaufen einfach alle Assets auf, die sich zeigen.

Denn wir sind a l l m ä c h t i g!

KRANK!

Gruß (auch wenn es ein sehr guter Einwand war von Dir...),

d.

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Oh, interessant!!!
Wann konntest du ihn treffen und was habt ihr besprochen
(wenn ich mal fragen darf)? Danke!

>Ja, JeFra,
>aber ich k e n n e ihn persönlich. Mindestens 5 Treffs. Der verstellt sich nicht. Der ist eitel bis zum Exzess. Und er genießt einen Job, der ihn minder besoldet als jeder Junior Analyst in Wall Street hat, weil er glaubt M a c h t zu haben. Er ist ein klassicher Nullouvert (was man als Skatspieler immer erst weiß, nachdem (!) die Karten auf dem Tisch liegen).
>Und diese Rede im Senat war nun wahrlich das Ultimum an Gestöpsel & Hilflosigkeit.
>a) Wir wissen nicht was los ist. b) Wir wissen nicht wie es dazu kommen konnte c) Wir waren auf so was auch nicht vorbereitet d) Wir haben es auch nicht kommen sehen ("our models") e) Wenn was sein sollte, holen wir den Knüppel aus dem Sack und kaufen einfach alle Assets auf, die sich zeigen.
>Denn wir sind a l l m ä c h t i g!
>KRANK!
>Gruß (auch wenn es ein sehr guter Einwand war von Dir...),
>d.


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>>Haben Sie schon mal die Möglichkeit in Betracht gezogen, daß AG nur den Hilflosen mimt?
>>JeFra
>Ja, JeFra,
>aber ich k e n n e ihn persönlich. Mindestens 5 Treffs. Der verstellt sich nicht.

Haben Sie meinen Beitrag zu seiner Rede vom August 99 gelesen?
http://www.f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/41385.htm

Gerade das, was er damals sagte, zeigte doch eigentlich, dass er sich der psychologischen Reaktionen durchaus bewusst war. Jedenfalls fand ich seine damalige Rede klasse. Deshalb frage ich mich, ob er heute so gesprochen hat wie er wollte. Sie haben es schon beantwortet, aber ich sehe es anders, obwohl ich ihn natürlich nicht kenne.

Um almoehi zu zitieren: Nix für unguut!

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>Oh, interessant!!!
>Wann konntest du ihn treffen und was habt ihr besprochen
>(wenn ich mal fragen darf)? Danke!

Alan war"Libertarian", eine Gruppe von extrem liberalen Kapitalisten (Theorie-Kapitalisten). Das hat mir gefallen, und ich bin rüber gereist und habe mich bei den"Objectivists" (Name einer Zeitschrift von Ayn Rand) gemeldet und wurde sofort mit offenen Armen aufgenommen.

Es waren dann ein paar Tagungen und vor allem Meetings in Ayns New Yorker Wohnung. Extrem aufgestellt waren wir alle, denn der Trend der Zeit war damals sozialistisch und sowas kann ich nun Mal überhaupt nicht ab.

Ich habe damals nichts dabei gedacht. Denn ich hätte n i e damit gerechnet, dass Alan Mal so hoch steigen würde.

So geht's halt (ein Abiturs-Kollege von mir ist Bischof in Brasilien, und ich dachte immer, der taugt noch nicht Mal zu einem Perma-Messdiener).

Gruß

d.



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>>>Haben Sie schon mal die Möglichkeit in Betracht gezogen, daß AG nur den Hilflosen mimt?
>>>JeFra
>>Ja, JeFra,
>>aber ich k e n n e ihn persönlich. Mindestens 5 Treffs. Der verstellt sich nicht.
>Haben Sie meinen Beitrag zu seiner Rede vom August 99 gelesen?

Jetzt ja!

>http://www.f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/41385.htm
>Gerade das, was er damals sagte, zeigte doch eigentlich, dass er sich der psychologischen Reaktionen durchaus bewusst war.

Das ist es aber doch! Wenn er das weiß bzw wusste, dann musste er - wie jeder gute Stratege - wissen, dass so etwas m ö g l i c h ist. Aber er stellt sich post festum hin und wiederholt, was er ante festum gesagt hat. Das ist doch kindisch!

>Jedenfalls fand ich seine damalige Rede klasse. Deshalb frage ich mich, ob er heute so gesprochen hat wie er wollte. Sie haben es schon beantwortet, aber ich sehe es anders, obwohl ich ihn natürlich nicht kenne.

Wie er wollte? Hat ihm jemand die Rede diktiert? NEIN! Er hat es gesehen, und als es dann doch so gekommen ist, hat er versagt. Wenn ein Notenbankchef w e i ß, dass die Nummer"abrupt" schief gehen kann, muss er das doch ins Kalkül ziehen und entsprechen handeln, bevor (!) er jammern muss, dass es"abrupt" so gekommen ist.

Er ist schlicht ein Rundum-Versager!

>Um almoehi zu zitieren: Nix für unguut!

DOCH! Das war NICHT gut. Hier im Board kann doch auch keiner sagen, er hätte sich ein (wenn, denn) Desaster zwar für möglich gehalten, aber dann doch nicht kommen sehen.

Das sind doch Kinckerlitzchen.

WIR machen uns hier den Kopp schwer, was für tun sollen / sollten im Fall des Falles - und der Herr Fed-Chef steht über solchen Problemen.

So etwas mag ich überhaupt nicht, zumal wenn er dann obendrein noch alles Mögliche als"Ursache" (= Entschuldigung) heranzieht wie Wetter & Ã-lpreis. SO geht's nicht.

Daher wiederholte Forderung: Entmündigen!

Das (= Notenbankpolitik) können wir nämlich (das Board hier!) alle zusammen zehn Mal besser als Greenspan. Locker!

Gruß

d.


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Mir bleibt die Spucke weg...

Ãœbrigens, hattest du damals (vor gut 'ner Woche glaub ich)
in meine Zitate bzw. Links zu Greenspan mal eingeschaut,
die Zitate waren von Vern Lyon
( http://www.aros.net/~vlyon/ )?

Das war die Quelle, die mich ganz zwanglos auf das was du
Debitismus nennst, gebracht hat, was für mich aber alles
andere als verblüffend oder auch nur neu war, da ich kaum
theoretisch vorbelastet war und die Sache mit dem Geld
irgendwie schon immer so gesehen hatte - aus dem Bauch heraus.
Ich dächte daß du in Vern's Essays viel interessantes finden
solltest und bin mir sicher, daß Vern auch riesig gern mit
dir emailen würde (ich maile mit ihm und er ist imo grossartig).

Beste Grüße - Jagg



>>Oh, interessant!!!
>>Wann konntest du ihn treffen und was habt ihr besprochen
>>(wenn ich mal fragen darf)? Danke!
>Alan war"Libertarian", eine Gruppe von extrem liberalen Kapitalisten (Theorie-Kapitalisten). Das hat mir gefallen, und ich bin rüber gereist und habe mich bei den"Objectivists" (Name einer Zeitschrift von Ayn Rand) gemeldet und wurde sofort mit offenen Armen aufgenommen.
>Es waren dann ein paar Tagungen und vor allem Meetings in Ayns New Yorker Wohnung. Extrem aufgestellt waren wir alle, denn der Trend der Zeit war damals sozialistisch und sowas kann ich nun Mal überhaupt nicht ab.
>Ich habe damals nichts dabei gedacht. Denn ich hätte n i e damit gerechnet, dass Alan Mal so hoch steigen würde.
>So geht's halt (ein Abiturs-Kollege von mir ist Bischof in Brasilien, und ich dachte immer, der taugt noch nicht Mal zu einem Perma-Messdiener).
>Gruß
>d.


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... an JüKü:

lassen sich die Zitate evtl. noch auf deinem Server finden?
(das wäre deshalb gut, da ich einige Zeit damit verbracht
hatte solche Zitate herauszusuchen, die speziell mit
Greenspan zu tun haben) Gruß und Dank - Jagg



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>Das (= Notenbankpolitik) können wir nämlich (das Board hier!) alle zusammen zehn Mal besser als Greenspan. Locker!
>Gruß
>d.

Da muss ich natürlich zustimmen ;-)

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>>>>Haben Sie schon mal die Möglichkeit in Betracht gezogen, daß AG nur den Hilflosen mimt?
>>>>JeFra
>>>Ja, JeFra,
>>>aber ich k e n n e ihn persönlich. Mindestens 5 Treffs. Der verstellt sich nicht.
>>Haben Sie meinen Beitrag zu seiner Rede vom August 99 gelesen?
>Jetzt ja!
>>http://www.f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/41385.htm
>>Gerade das, was er damals sagte, zeigte doch eigentlich, dass er sich der psychologischen Reaktionen durchaus bewusst war.
>Das ist es aber doch! Wenn er das weiß bzw wusste, dann musste er - wie jeder gute Stratege - wissen, dass so etwas m ö g l i c h ist. Aber er stellt sich post festum hin und wiederholt, was er ante festum gesagt hat. Das ist doch kindisch!
>>Jedenfalls fand ich seine damalige Rede klasse. Deshalb frage ich mich, ob er heute so gesprochen hat wie er wollte. Sie haben es schon beantwortet, aber ich sehe es anders, obwohl ich ihn natürlich nicht kenne.
>Wie er wollte? Hat ihm jemand die Rede diktiert? NEIN! Er hat es gesehen, und als es dann doch so gekommen ist, hat er versagt. Wenn ein Notenbankchef w e i ß, dass die Nummer"abrupt" schief gehen kann, muss er das doch ins Kalkül ziehen und entsprechen handeln, bevor (!) er jammern muss, dass es"abrupt" so gekommen ist.
>Er ist schlicht ein Rundum-Versager!
>>Um almoehi zu zitieren: Nix für unguut!
>DOCH! Das war NICHT gut. Hier im Board kann doch auch keiner sagen, er hätte sich ein (wenn, denn) Desaster zwar für möglich gehalten, aber dann doch nicht kommen sehen.
>Das sind doch Kinckerlitzchen.
>WIR machen uns hier den Kopp schwer, was für tun sollen / sollten im Fall des Falles - und der Herr Fed-Chef steht über solchen Problemen.
>So etwas mag ich überhaupt nicht, zumal wenn er dann obendrein noch alles Mögliche als"Ursache" (= Entschuldigung) heranzieht wie Wetter & Ã-lpreis. SO geht's nicht.
>Daher wiederholte Forderung: Entmündigen!
>Das (= Notenbankpolitik) können wir nämlich (das Board hier!) alle zusammen zehn Mal besser als Greenspan. Locker!
>Gruß
>d.

IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE!!!!!!!!!

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