Gestern fast 10 % minus, heute 20 % minus,
mein Put freut sich (endlich)!
Amazon halte ich für einen guten"Nasdaq-Indikator"...

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eferis

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Fundamentale Gründe? Keine Ahnung und unwichtig.

Im Ernst, ich habe noch nicht nachgesehen, warum.


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Top-Analysten von Lehman Brothers haben nach intensiver Studie der Geschäftsberichte entdeckt, daß Amazon bereits seit Jahren fette Verluste einfährt!

Zitat aus cnnfn: Lehman Brothers cast doubts about Amazon.com's convertible bonds, saying"we find the credit weak and deteriorating."

"Our negative thesis stems from Amazon's massive negative operating cash flows, poor working capital management and increasing debt," the Lehman research said.


Die Anleger sind schockiert! Wie konnte das so lange unentdeckt bleiben? Bahnt sich hier etwa ein zweiter Philip-Holzmann-Skandal an?

Amazon verliert heute über $9 auf 32 11/16, nachdem Lehman die Aktie von"strong buy" auf"accumulate" herabgestuft hat.

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Amazon hat im Moment 1,2 Mrd $ Schulden und noch ca. 1 Mrd $ Cash.
Diese Mittel sind bei Fortschreibung der gegenwärtigen Verlustrate
in ziemlich genau 9 Monaten aufgebraucht.

Diese einfache Rechenaufgabe hat heute ein Analyst von Lehman Brs.
bravourös gelöst - und viele Aktionäre staunten.

Wen interessieren schon Gewinne oder Verluste - bei so viel"Phantasie"...

(Schade um den sehr guten Liefer-Service von Amazon.)

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>Amazon hat im Moment 1,2 Mrd $ Schulden und noch ca. 1 Mrd $ Cash.
>Diese Mittel sind bei Fortschreibung der gegenwärtigen Verlustrate
>in ziemlich genau 9 Monaten aufgebraucht.
>Diese einfache Rechenaufgabe hat heute ein Analyst von Lehman Brs.
>bravourös gelöst - und viele Aktionäre staunten.
>Wen interessieren schon Gewinne oder Verluste - bei so viel"Phantasie"...
>(Schade um den sehr guten Liefer-Service von Amazon.)

Yes, Ghandi, yes -

auch ich - Monatsumsatz (privat bei der Bude um die 2 Mille) - werde das schöne Gemächte vermissen. Sie sagen allerdings, bei den books sei demnächst Licht im Tunnel. We'll see.

Schönes Weekned (und spinn' nicht zu viel an deinem Spinnrad:-).

d.



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June 24, 2000

<h1>Two Analysts Talk, and the Shares of Amazon.com Take a Plunge
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By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

Shares of Amazon.com, the Internet industry's bellwether stock, plummeted 19 percent in heavy trading yesterday as investors grew nervous about the company's financial health and its prospects for profitability. Other Internet companies were sucked into the downdraft; shares of eBay fell 7.4 percent and America Online lost 5.3 percent of its value.

Yesterday's decline in Amazon shares appeared to be a reaction to comments issued by two research analysts at influential Wall Street firms. Ravi Suria, a credit analyst at Lehman Brothers, wrote a report on Amazon's $2 billion in bonds issued during the last few years, calling into question the company's financial strength and ability to generate cash to repay bondholders. For Amazon to be a successful business, Mr. Suria wrote,"it must be able to generate the cash operating profile of a successful retailer.

"It is essentially this yardstick that we use to analyze the company," he wrote,"and as the rest of this report shows, we find it woefully lacking." Amazon's bonds fell 10 percent on the day.

Shares of Amazon fell $8.125, to $33.875. The stock is down 55 percent so far this year. The company has never posted a profit.

Mr. Suria said he had written the report after scrutinizing the company's first-quarter results, made public last month."What we think truly pushed a weak credit off the cliff was the inept working capital management during the last holiday season," he said.

Because the company does not generate positive cash flow on each piece of merchandise that it sells, Mr. Suria added, Amazon has had to rely on obliging investors to finance its operations. But as Internet companies have begun to fail,"the market has become a lot more selective," he said.

Bill Curry, the company's spokesman, called Mr. Suria's report"hogwash." But he declined to identify specific facts in the report the company disputed. According to someone close to the company, Mr. Suria's report was made available to Amazon yesterday.

Adding to the turmoil yesterday were mixed messages to investors from Mary Meeker, the influential Internet analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, the firm that has managed both of Amazon.com's recent bond offerings. As recently as June 2, Ms. Meeker was positive on Amazon. But a message to Morgan Stanley's salespeople yesterday morning summarizing Ms. Meeker's views on Amazon, began this way:"Mary believes there will be no upside to her June and September revenue estimates and there could be some modest downside."

In a later communiqué dictated by Ms. Meeker, there was no mention of a"modest downside." A Morgan Stanley spokesman could not explain the discrepancy between the two messages. Ms. Meeker was traveling and could not be reached.

Neither analyst's report was based on new information about Amazon's business. Mr. Curry said the company never discussed its operations between quarterly earnings conference calls with analysts. The next such call, which will detail company results for the June quarter, is scheduled for July 26. Amazon's stumble did not shake the faith of one big investor. Managers of Legg Mason mutual funds in Baltimore were buying shares of the company's stock and bonds as they fell yesterday, said Lisa O. Rapuano, director of research at the firm.

The company's popular Value Trust fund started the day with about 2.8 percent of its assets, or about $375 million, in Amazon's stock. By the end of the day, those shares were worth about $300 million, but the fund's manager, Bill Miller, was buying more. Mr. Miller, whose fund has outperformed the overall stock market for nine consecutive years, has been saying that Amazon's stock price could go to $90 or higher, and yesterday, Ms. Rapuano was not backing away from that view. She described the reports that produced the sell-off as"baffling."

"It's evident that nobody likes e-commerce right now," she said. "On the other hand, it's evident that if Amazon doesn't work, then nothing's going to work in e-commerce. You don't have 20 million customers on something that isn't real."

Investors obviously agree that Amazon, the company, is real. As long as its profits remain virtual, however, investors are likely to be skittish.



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Jetzt auch ein Artikel auf Bloomberg: Amazon.com's Stock Investments Drop $1.5 Billion From Peak


Hier sind ein paar Zitate:
While Amazon.com says it's still in the black on those investments, since it often took positions at low prices before the companies went public, the value of the holdings has declined in value from $1.93 billion at their collective highs to about $370 million.

``These investments did help round out their product offerings, but Amazon could have bought in at a lot cheaper prices,'' said Dalton Chandler, an analyst at Needham & Co.
...
``Cash investment wasn't the way to go,'' Lauren Levitan, an analyst at Robertson Stephens & Co., wrote in a report.
...
Amazon.com's investments in public companies are up about 50 percent from when the Internet retailer put in its money, said spokesman Bill Curry. Investments in private companies are probably up about the same amount, he said.


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Die Kommentare werden immer vernichtender:

<h2>Amazon.com shares plunge after Lehman warning</h2>

...
Anthony Noto of Goldman Sachs said he also expected $600m of sales: "I don't see any upside for the second quarter, and I don't see any opportunity for upside for the rest of the summer."

That is a contrast to Amazon's past record of comfortably exceeding estimates for its quarterly results. Mr Noto said Amazon and others were seeing the effect on sales of lower advertising and the lack of positive press comment on the industry.

Some equity analysts attacked Lehman's Mr Suria for saying that Amazon had"[a] weak balance sheet, poor working capital management, and massive negative cashflow - the financial characteristics that have driven innumerable retailers to disaster throughout history."

Lehman said it expected Amazon's cash balances to run out by the first quarter of 2001. However, Tom Wyman, e-commerce analyst with J.P. Morgan, estimated Amazon had $900m of cash - enough never to have to raise money again. Mr Suria defended his recommendation that investors avoid the convertible bonds, saying:"The company spins a story and the whole point of credit analysis is you look at the numbers, not the story."
...


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Hallo Gemeinde,

ich möchte versuchen, an Hand des Chartbildes darzustellen, was 'passiert' sein könnte.

In Erinnerung an Dez. 1998, wo ein Gap in gleicher Range (adjustierte Kurse, die die Split's vom 05.01.99 und 02.09.99 im Verhätnis 3:1 bzw. 2:1 'bereinigen') den Beginn eines Seitwärtsmarktes zwichen 40,5 und 106,625 einleitete, könnte sich diese Dynamik durch die 'magische' Marke bei $40 potenziert haben.

Die Range des 1 1/2 Jährigen Seitwärtsmarktes ist durch folgende Daten begrenzt:
15.12.1998 - $ 40,5000 (letztes Hoch vor Dez'98-Gap)
16.12.1998 - $ 43,1875 (Tief am 'Gap'-Tag)
09.12.1999 - $113,0000 (max. obere Begrenzung der Range)
22.06.2000 - $ 41,6250 (Tief vor Ausbruchgap)
23.06.2000 - $ 37,0000 (Hoch am Gap-Tag)

Nimmt man das Hoch aus Jan. 1999, das am 08.01.1999 bei $99,5625 markiert wurde, als obere Begrenzung, so ergibt siche eine Range von ca. 100-40 = 60$
Mit dem Ausbruchversuchen im
Apr.'99...$110,6250 (24.04.99)
Aug.'99...$ 41,0000 (5. und 10.08.99)
Dez.'99...$113,0000 (09.12.99)

ist eine maximal 13%ige Ãœberschreitung des oberen Begrenzungsrandes gesehen worden, ohne das das Band verlassen werden konnte. Auf die Range bezogen: (113-100)/60=21,6%).

Im unteren Bereich könnte somit möglicherwiese eine 'Umschlagszone' zwischen 40,5 und 0,87*40,5=35,67$ entstehen.

J.Ross (Futures-Trading, ISBN 3-932741-00-5) benutzt die Fibonacci-Relationen 14,6% und 23,6% als sog. Ausweitungslinien (NB: fibZ[i]/fibZ[i+4] bzw. fib[i]/fibZ[i+3] also Fibonaccizahl i geteilt durch die 4. bzw. 3. darauf folgende Fibonaccizahl z.B. 34/233 und 34/144).

Diese Umschlagszonen, um die Schiebezone zwischen 40 und 60, liegen somit bei

100+60*0,236=114,2
100+60*0,146=108,8

40,5-60*0,146= 31,8
40,5-60*0,236= 26,4

Am Freitag wurde ein Tief von $32,46875 ($37^15/32) erreicht.

Dieses läßt mich das Gap als ein 'exhaustion gap' (Erschöpfungs-Lücke) erscheinen. Ich argumentiere hier nur charttechnisch! Ein Nachlaufen scheint nicht angeraten, ebensowenig, wie der 'Griff in das fallende Messer'.

Ein gehandeltes Durchbrechen der Marke 26,4 scheint jedoch dann endgültig jede längerfristige Erholung zunichte werden zu lassen.

Die sog. 'Innere Umschlaglinie' liegt bei 40,5+60*0,136=48,6$, die als das derzeitig möglichen Erholungsziel anzusehen ist. Daraus ergibt sich ein Verlust-/Gewinnpotential: (33,875-26,4)/(48,6-33,875)=7,5/14,7

Wochendgrüße
Uwe


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Selten so eine fundierte und detaillierte Analyse gesehen!
Hochinteressant!

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Hallo!

Amazon hat reagiert und weist die Zweifel an der Bonität zurück.

Naja, ich halte es eher für Schönrederei um weitere Kursstürze zu vermeiden.

Sascha

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Hallo!

Habe den Link vergessen

http://www.welt.de/daten/2000/06/26/0626w1175977.htx

Sascha

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