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Category: General Interest
From: astrocyclebear1 (AstroCycle Bear)
To: ALL
Date Posted: March 22, 2001 at 04:30:36
Subject: Anti-Crash Update - Black Thursday
The 55 day panic cycle has been a notoriously accurate method of pinpointing days of maximum panic in the market. That's great, but what if you're not given the start date of the cycle, as occurs when the major indexes do not peak together? In that case, you have to look elsewhere for clues. I showed in a previous post how, in a similar situation, the 55 day cycle pinpointed the day of maximum panic on 4/14/00. It was exactly 55 days after the average all-time high dates of the three major indexes: S&P500, Dow and NDX.
If we use the same method to calculate the starting point of this current 55 day panic cycle, averaging the late January/early February intermediate highs of the Dow, SPX and NDX, it implies that today or Friday will be the point of maximum panic. This also ties in nicely with a lot of supporting astro present during the '29 crash, which also occurred a couple of days before a new moon with similar lunar aspects and is very conducive to a panic.
One thing to be on guard for, however, is that this current 55 day cycle appears to be controlled and weighted more by the movement of the Dow and S&P 500 than the NDX. If so, it would mean that little or no weight should be given the NDX and the Monday/Tuesday timeframe would be the point of maximum panic. The supporting astro is not as conducive for a panic but the period just after a new moon can be just as dangerous as the few days before.
If Monday/Tuesday is the point of maximum panic, it means that we are now at the point in the cycle where the risk of a whip-saw, Black Thursday type of day is high. That's where the market goes into a panic freefall intraday and appears to be crashing but then stages a late day recovery into the close, squeezing the shortsellers who started piling on during the freefall and busting them out of their positions so they cannot profit from the real crash. Right now, equally compelling arguments can be made for both 55 day panic dates but today's action should the the deciding factor. Short and holding, ACB.
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