How quickly can a revolution in our monetary system happen. Contemplate this posting:

Sunday March 4, 2001: 08:16:28-0500

Statistics by"Viking Coder" <vikingcoder@techie.com>

We'll start with known quantities.

e-gold:
Circulation - 44,475.17 oz. gold ($11.7 million)
total - 46,400.00 oz. gold ($12.2 million)
daily transaction volume - 5700 oz. gold ($1.5 million)

US Dollar:
Circulation - $562.949 billion
total - $817.577 billion
GDP - $8.511 Trillion ($23.32 billion/day)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the ten smallest countries that have their own currency:

STD Dobra (São Tomé) - $164 million
TOP Pa'anga (Tonga) - $232 million
VUV Vatu (Vanuatu) - $240 million
WST Tala (Samoa) - $470 million
MVR Maldivian Rufiyaa (Maldives) - $500 million
DJF Djibouti Franc (Djibouti) - $530 million
SCR Seychelles Rupee (Seychelles) - $550 million
CVE Cape Verdean Escudo (Cape Verde) - $581 million
BZD Belize Dollar (Belize) - $700 million
SBD Solomon Islands Dollar - $1.15 billion (Solomon Islands)

As of June 9: e-gold's Daily Transaction Volume (DTV) - 6700
This works out to 225x in 20 months or 31%/month.

Now the mathematical analysis:

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) isn't the same as the transaction volume. The GDP is the amount of official/logged transactions, i.e. retail, etc. However, we can figure out the necessary transaction volumes given two assumptions:
1.) The correlation between circulation volume and transaction volume is the same for all currencies.
2.) The correlation between GDP and transaction volume is the same for all
currencies.

(Not all countries are the same so this is not true, but it is something to work with.)
This gives us the Daily Transaction Volumes (DTV) for the above ten currencies:

STD (Dobra) - $1.35 million
TOP (Pa'anga) - $1.9 million
VUV (Vatu) - $1.97 million
WST (Tala) - $3.86 million
MVR (Maldivian Rufiyaa) - $4.11 million
DJF (Djibouti Franc) - $4.36 million
SCR (Seychelles Rupee) - $4.52 million
CVE (Cape Verdean Escudo) - $4.78 million
BZD (Belize Dollar) - $5.75 million
SBD (Solomon Islands Dollar) - $9.45 million

Using the given e-gold growth rate, we can determine when e-gold's Daily Transaction Volume (DTV) will exceed the listed currencies transaction volume.

STD (Dobra) - Already exceeded
TOP (Pa'anga) - April
VUV (Vatu) - April
WST (Tala) - August
MVR (Maldivian Rufiyaa) - August
DJF (Djibouti Franc) - August
SCR (Seychelles Rupee) - September
CVE (Cape Verdean Escudo) - September
BVD (Belize Dollar) - October
SBD (Solomon Islands Dollar) - November

Then again on Monday, March 5: 01:30:05-0500:

In answer to an earlier post on the e-gold users list and to dramatize the potential of Digital Money, Viking Coder continued their comparison as to how long it will take for e-gold to become as large as some Larger National Currencies. Assuming a continued growth rate of 31% per month and using the same calculations and techniques as before, e-gold will grow over 650x in 2 years and will be as large as the Swiss Franc by May 2003, etc. Please note table below:

Country / Currency / GDP / DTV / Year e-gold will be the same size
Australian Dollar (AUD) | $393.9 billion | $3.24 billion | July 2003
Bahamian Dollar (BSD) | $5.63 billion | $46.27 million | April 2002
Canadian Dollar (CAD) | $688.3 billion | $5.66 billion | September 2003
Danish Krone (DKK) | $124.4 billion | $1.02 billion | April 2003
Egyptian Pound (EGP) | $188 billion | $1.55 billion | May 2003
Irish Punt (IEP) | $67.1 billion | $551.5 million | January 2003
Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) | $43.7 billion | $359.18 million | December 2002
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) | $61.1 billion | $502.19 million | January 2003
Russian Ruble (RUB) | $593.4 billion | $4.88 billion | August 2003
Swiss Franc (CHF) | $191.8 billion | $1.58 billion | May 2003


Regardless of how simplistic or optimistic it may be to think that digital money will be the same size as the Swiss Franc by May of 2003, it does point out how quickly a revolution in our monetary system could take place. So how long will it take to change the monetary system of the USA? Go figure. Further information on e-gold velocity historical data point is available at:
http://www.mail-archive.com/e-gold-list@talk.e-gold.com/msg02528.html

My thanks to"Viking Coder" for their analysis which I re-formatted for this newsletter.


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Keine Eile Traumtänzer!
Solange der Goldpreis, wie bisher manipuliert und relativ
stabil gehalten wird, kann von mir aus das gesamte
Welthandelsvolumen über E-Gold abgewickelt werden. Nach den
ersten Pleiten seiner Betreiber wird es genau so wie bei
E-cash aussehen. Bei mehr schwankendem Goldpreis sowieso.
Wird aber der Goldpreis in einem neuen Goldstandard in
einem Weltübereinkommen fixiert, passiert genau das, was
ich die ganze Zeit voraussage: weltweite Deflationskrise!
Noch haben wir, Gott lob, etwas Zeit, obwohl jetzt auch
ohne Deflation dauernd gezündelt wird.
Weltkrieg ist aber dank Gorbachev, der den dazu nötigen
ernsthaften Gegner vom Kampfplatz entfernte nicht mehr
ganz so leicht zu inszenieren. Wir können also noch
etwas warten, bis auch das Dollarimperium an inneren
Zwanghaftigkeiten zerfällt.
E-gold könnte das vielleicht sogar beschleunigen, wenn,
ja wenn, es erfolgreich wäre, was es leider auf Dauer
nicht sein kann bei schwankendem Goldpreis.
Gruss vom Oldy
P.S. und vergleiche einmal die E- Goldumsätze mit dem
Gesamtweltumsätzen und dann darfst du weinen.

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