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Shares best long term? Think again!:

... This, of course, gives us a measure of Wall Street's price/earnings ratio [Anm.: für den S&P] - the standard way of judging whether the market seems overvalued.

It produces a line with no trend over 120 years, but just four sharp spikes.

In June 1901, the PE ratio hit a peak of 25.2. In September 1929, it hit a peak of 32.6, in January 1966 a peak of 24.1 and in January this year it hit 44.3.

The first point to note is how much higher the latest peak is compared with the previous three (and it wouldn't have changed much since January).

The spike before the Great Crash of 1929 is the only one that comes close, but even it is dwarfed by what we've got now.

Obviously, we can't know what the future holds for share prices and returns. The best guide is to look at what happened to returns in the years following those three previous peaks. Let's say you were a share investor at any of those three previous times when the PE ratio was so high and, believing that shares were invincible, you decided not to sell out but to hang on. How would your returns have fared in the following years?

According to Professor Shiller's calculations, if you'd hung on for five years after the peak of 1901, your real return (dividends plus the change in capital value) would have averaged 3.4 per cent a year over the period - barely above the real interest rate. In the five years following the peak of 1929, the real annual return averaged minus 13.1 per cent and in the five years following 1966 it averaged minus 2.6 per cent.

Not long enough? Well, let's hang on for 10 years from any of those three peaks. From 1901, 1929 and 1966, the real returns averaged 4.4 per cent, minus 1.4 per cent and minus 1.8 per cent, respectively.

You want to stay in for 15 years and give prices even longer to recover? That produces average annual real returns of 3.1 per cent, minus 0.5 per cent and another minus 0.5 per cent, respectively. What about hanging on for the following 20 years? That gives minus 0.2 per cent from 1901, but plus 0.4 per cent from 1929 and plus 1.9 per cent from 1966.

Still convinced you can't go wrong if you stay in shares for the long haul?

Nichts Neues; meine Analyse zur Buy-and-Hold-Strategie zeigte es ja auch.

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