Long Term Sell Signal (4/25/01)

The 199 day PPO has flashed a sell signal following a month of rising bond yields. The long term downtrend has been reversed. The bond market is telling us that Fed's aggressive easing is inflationary, and the market is going to make us pay.

The End Is Nigh (4/11/01)

After Wednesday, the bond is within a hair's breadth of that sell signal (see below) going from intermediate to long term.

Yields are rising in spite of, or perhaps because of, crashing short term rates, [which have since turned up as of 4/17] caused by the Fed's aggressive reflation of the money supply reigniting inflationary fears.

The big thing mitigating against total economic collapse has been the real estate bubble and especially the mortgage refi bubble. The turn in the long end of the market is going to slam that door shut.

The implications for stocks are horrendous, but it will take time for the sheep herd to wake up. Just keep this in the back of your mind as the rally, and bullish calls in the stock market reach hysterical proportions.

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