[b]Wer hat wann dieses gesagt:

"On such judgments of value rest much of our economic system. Doubtless, valuations are shaped in part, perhaps in large part, by the economic process itself. But history suggests that they also reflect waves of optimism and pessimism that can be touched off by seemingly small exogenous events."

"But the newer technologies, and the productivity and bull stock market they have fostered, are also accentuating some accounting difficulties that tend to bias up reported earnings. One is the apparent overestimate of earnings that occurs as a result of the distortion in the accounting for stock options."

"These upward adjustments in reported earnings, of course, are a consequence of rising stock prices and, hence, may not be of the same dimension in the future."

"An individual's degree of risk aversion may vary through time and possibly be subject to herd instincts."

"This suggests that the rate of time preference underlying interest rates, like so many other aspects of human nature, has not materially changed over the generations."

"It has become evident time and again that when events are unexpected, more complex, and move more rapidly than is the norm, human beings become less able to cope. The failure to be able to comprehend external events almost invariably induces fear and, hence, disengagement from an activity, whether it be entering a dark room or taking positions in markets. And attempts to disengage from markets that are net long--the most general case--means bids are hit and prices fall."

"But from time to time, this process has broken down as investors suffer an abrupt collapse of comprehension of, and confidence in, future economic events. It is almost as though, like a dam under mounting water pressure, confidence appears normal until the moment it is breached."

"Risk aversion in such an instance rises dramatically, and deliberate trading strategies are replaced by rising fear-induced disengagement. Yield spreads on relatively risky assets widen dramatically."

Und das Beste:

"History tells us that sharp reversals in confidence happen abruptly, most often with little advance notice. These reversals can be self-reinforcing processes that can compress sizable adjustments into a very short time period. Panic market reactions are characterized by dramatic shifts in behavior to minimize short-term losses. Claims on far-distant future values are discounted to insignificance. What is so intriguing is that this type of behavior has characterized human interaction with little appreciable difference over the generations. Whether Dutch tulip bulbs or Russian equities, <font size=5">the market price patterns remain much the same</font>."

Wer war dieser kluge Mann, der das alles hat kommen sehen? Es war im August 1999.


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...er könnte es tatsächlich gewesen sein.

War er aber nicht. Es war der, der die ganze Riesenbubble selbst aufgeblasen hat!

hier

Ist er nun total blöd, dass er das getan hat oder ist er schlau, weil er gemerkt hat, was da kommt? Oder musste er gegen seine Überzeugung weiter blasen? Letzteres, glaube ich. Seine berühmte Rede zum Gold von 1966 ist ja auch so ein Beispiel. Ich halte ihn für viel cleverer als dottore, nur darf er offenbar nicht so wie er will.

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