Quelle: Bloomberg
'Inside the productivity figures
Non-farm productivity rose 5.3 percent compared to the expected 4.3 percent increase. And closely-watched unit labor costs fell 0.1 percent compared to the expected 0.3 percent rise. Unit labor costs fell 0.4 percent in the past four quarters -- the first decline since 1984. See full story.
The strong productivity gains reinforce the view that inflation will remain in check and that the Fed can afford to stay on hold for now. The market is certainly anticipating the central bank to stand pat at the Aug. 22 Federal Open Market Committee meeting in light of the recent economic data, including Friday's friendly July jobs report.
"These are spectacular numbers. Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. Indeed, the numbers are so good that it seems churlish to point out that the real test of productivity performance is not how fast it rises in an upswing, but how well it holds up when the economy finally slows," opined Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
"Of course, if the Fed succeeds in inducing a soft landing, any productivity slowdown will be modest, posing little inflation risk," he concluded.
Meanwhile, the first-quarter productivity figures were downwardly revised to show a 1.9 percent increase compared to the previously reported 2.4 percent rise.
Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, said Fed chair Alan Greenspan's nagging question has been whether productivity gains will be strong enough to counter rising wage pressures. For now, the answer is yes, according to Naroff.
"Expect the FOMC to remain on hold until at least late in this year," Naroff said.'
Na, dann ist doch bis Ende August alles klar oder?! Keine Inflation, fehlen nur noch positiv interpretierte Unternehmensergebnisse (heute z.b. Cisco Systems). Wenn die 'Flüsterschätzungen' getoppt werden, dann massiv long gehen..
black elk
<center>
<HR>
</center> |
Thread-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht
Reihenfolge
Thread gesperrt
