Anfang des Jahres, just als der Dow sein Peak hatte, wurde Ed Yardeni zum Bullen. Seine Website, vorher eine Fundgrube für Bären, wurde sehr schenll umgebaut, und heute findet man nur noch"alles umgedreht" - teilweise gleiche Fakten, nur anders interpretiert.

Hier ein paar Zitate (30.05.00):
~ What Were We Thinking? Last year, I observed that the stock market is a market of stocks, and most were in a bear market. A narrow bull market in a relatively small number of big-cap technology stocks and several speculative bubbles in the Nasdaq masked this broad bear market. I started out this year expecting that the bubbles would burst, particularly in the dot-com and e-tailing universes. But I also expected that the bull market would broaden, instead the bear market has done so.

~ Rational Exuberance. After spending most of last year arguing that we were in a speculative bubble, I must admit I was starting to become irrationally exuberant myself earlier this year. Last year, I observed that traditional valuation models were showing the S&P 500 index was soaring well above its fair value. This year, I concluded that rising long-term earnings expectation, especially for technology companies, might justify higher valuations than suggested by models that didn’t factor this variable into their equations.
Obviously, the recent tech wreck suggests that many investors believe that valuation in this sector was too high earlier this year. When sentiment turns away from one extreme, it usually goes too far in the other direction. This seems to be happening for technology stocks.

~ I remain bullish about long-term prospects for the stock market because I remain optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings. I believe corporate profits can grow 10% to 15% per year over the decade ahead, on a market-capitalized basis. I believe that valuation will remain relatively unchanged at today’s high levels because I believe that inflation will remain at 2% or less over this period, which implies that bond yields are more likely to fall than to rise from current levels over the next 10 years.

Quelle: http://www.yardeni.com/public/a_000530.pdf

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