Hi Dottore und andere Hasadeure

Es ist richtig, daß sich beim Rohöl etwas anbahnen könnte. Wie von mir schon mehrfach hier gepostet, kann es auf ein Versorgungsproblem bei den Produktennotierungen (Heating Oil) im Winter hinauslaufen. Derzeit liegt die Stimmung im Markt zwischen Hoffnung, (dass alles nicht so schlimm wird) und Angst (im Winter werden die Preise drastisch höher liegen).

M. E. ist der Markt für den entscheidenden Long Schritt noch nicht ganz reif.
Der Markt wird momentan stark verbal über die OPEC Aussagen gesteuert, dass bei hohen Rohölpreisen eine Erhöhung der Förderquote erfolgt. Es sieht so aus, dass wahrscheinlich nur noch Saudi Arabien in der Lage ist, zusätzliche Rohölmengen für den Markt bereitzustellen. Der Markt wartet allerdings noch auf überzeugende Taten, dass auch tatsächlich mehr Ã-l gefördert wird.

Offenen Frage. Kann bzw will Saudi Arabien u. U. auch an einem OPEC Beschluß vorbei mehr Ã-l fördern.

Long Trigger: WTI gt 32,70 $/b Danach könnte die Post abgehen.

Achtung: Auslauf der September Kontrakte Sept Brent 16.8. - WTI 22.8.


Aktuell besteht im Markt eine Sondersituation - Squeeze bezogen auf Ende August.

In der 3. Dekade August werden die Marktkonturen klarer werden.

So long

Happy Trades

Gruss

K C

nachfolgend noch einige news
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08/16 08:00 OPEC Considering Raising Output 500,000 Barrels/Day, AP Says
By Alex Lawler

Dubai, Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering raising crude oil output by 500,000 barrels a day in the next few days to reduce prices, the Associated Press reported, citing an unnamed Gulf source.

OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, ``wants to take a unified position on current developments in the oil market,'' the person said, according to AP.

Concerns that OPEC won't pump more crude at least until a policy-setting meeting Sept. 10, and low inventories in the U.S., have helped push crude oil about 12 percent higher in New York since Aug. 1. Prices in London rose to the highest in nearly 10 years yesterday.






08/16 08:00 OPEC Considering Raising Output 500,000 Barrels/Day, AP Says
By Alex Lawler

Dubai, Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering raising crude oil output by 500,000 barrels a day in the next few days to reduce prices, the Associated Press reported, citing an unnamed Gulf source.

OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, ``wants to take a unified position on current developments in the oil market,'' the person said, according to AP.

Concerns that OPEC won't pump more crude at least until a policy-setting meeting Sept. 10, and low inventories in the U.S., have helped push crude oil about 12 percent higher in New York since Aug. 1. Prices in London rose to the highest in nearly 10 years yesterday.



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Danke, Keep-Cool,

ich werde mich beherrschen (noch). If ya lose your cool, man, ya gonna lose everything.

Spitzen-Backgroung-Material.

d.

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Hi Crude Fans

Actuals Stand 18.29 h

IPE

............Close Vortag).....open......high......low..--actual--.Diff

Brent $/b..... 29,74.......30,00......30,69....30.00... 30,60....(+0,86)
Gasoil $/t.....269,75.......272,00.....278,50...272,00...278,00....(+8,25)

Nymex
WTI $/b........31,80........31,76.......32,68...31,76....32,56.....(+0,76)
HO cts/g......86,88........86,90.......89,70...86,90....89,50.....(+2,62)
HU cts/g.....93,03.......93,20.......95,75...93,20....95,40.....(+2,37)



news

08/17 05:22 Crude Oil Rises After OPEC Says It Won't Soon Raise Production
By Brian Gorman

London, Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than 1 percent after the OPEC president said exporters wouldn't increase output before a meeting next month, increasing concern about a 24- year low in U.S. inventories as the peak season of demand nears.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has no plans to boost production before a Sept. 10 meeting, President Ali Rodriguez said. While oil inventories last week rose 3.4 million barrels, or 1.2 percent, to 288.8 million barrels, the U.S. government said, supplies are down 10 percent in the past year.

``The inventory data cooled the market slightly,'' said Tim Noest, trader at ADM Investor Services International. But ``OPEC is unlikely to increase output before its meeting.''

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose as much as 41 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $30.15 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange. Crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 34 cents at $32.14 a barrel in electronic trading.

The U.S. Department of Energy report yesterday largely confirmed a survey released Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute. Inventories have barely risen from 24-year lows and crude oil prices are near their highest level since the 1990-91 Persian Gulf war.

A shortage of heating oil as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere is concerning traders. The API's weekly survey showed inventories of heating oil are 38 percent below last year at 41.7 million barrels.

OPEC

Inventories are declining even after OPEC boosted output twice this year. OPEC has increased production by more than 2 million barrels a day, or 2.7 percent of the world's daily output.

The price of a group of crude oils OPEC monitors stood at $28.68 a barrel yesterday, topping the group's target range of $22 to $28 for a third straight day.

OPEC has said it will boost production if this index remains above $28 for 20 consecutive days.

Yesterday, Rodriguez said the organization has no plans to raise output before its Sept. 10 meeting.

``It's not planned,'' Rodriguez, who is also Venezuela's energy and mines minister, told reporters in Caracas.

Rodriguez was responding to an Associated Press report that said OPEC would shortly increase output by 500,000 barrels a day, according to an unnamed Persian Gulf source.

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>Hi Crude Fans
>Actuals Stand 18.29 h
>IPE
>............Close Vortag).....open......high......low..--actual--.Diff
>Brent $/b..... 29,74.......30,00......30,69....30.00... 30,60....(+0,86)
>Gasoil $/t.....269,75.......272,00.....278,50...272,00...278,00....(+8,25)
>Nymex
>WTI $/b........31,80........31,76.......32,68...31,76....32,56.....(+0,76)
>HO cts/g......86,88........86,90.......89,70...86,90....89,50.....(+2,62)
>HU cts/g.....93,03.......93,20.......95,75...93,20....95,40.....(+2,37)
>news
>

Nachtrag

Hat heute noch nicht geklappt

Widerstand bei bei 32,70 $/b war zu stark. Nach kurzfristigen High bei 32,75 $/b
downside move bis zum Close auf 31,90 $/b

K C


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Hi Dottore

Nun ist auch die Presse dabei. Heute große Aufmachung in den Zeitungen über Sorgen von höhere Heizölpreisen.....und B... ist dabei... cool.

Bin jetzt mal gespannt was uns die nächsten Tage bringen. Der Verbraucher müßte sich langsam auf seine Winterdisposition vorbereiten.

Ende August geht es i. d. R. los

Gruss

K C


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