Elliott Wave Financial Forcast Record Through 12/31/01

Posted By: Bill G.
Date: Sunday, 17 February 2002, at 12:53 p.m.

(EWFF)This financial market letter is published by Robert Prechter. I just recently got the data which includes the year 2001. The Hulbert Financial Digest(THFD) tracks the records of the popular financial market letters. I looked over the data for the 10 year records for which THFD has 68 market letters. I see that Prechter has the worst record of any of the 68 market letters.

For 10 years, through 12/31/02, Total Return (all returns >1 year, shown below are annualized. So if a return of -5% for 5 years is shown, that is 0.95 taken to the fifth power or 0.7738. So if you started with a portfolio of $100 at the end of 5 years you would have $77.38.)

EWFF: Traders porfolio: May Go Short. His portfolio where you can not go short does better, because he would have had you in money market funds during most of the last 10 years.
= -32.8%
So in 10 years if you started with $1,000,000 at the end of 10 years you would have $1,000,000 times (1-.32.8)^10= $1,000,000 x 0.01878= $18,780

His record for other periods is:
1 yr: +5.6%
5 yr: -20.2%
10 yr: -32.8%
15yr: -25.9%
Since 12/31/84: -21.0%
A case could be made for subscribing to the EWFF and following the recommendations, if you look at how it has improved, as it has gone along, from its 10 yr to its 5 yr to its 1 yr record. It has improved from its 5 yr to its 1 yr record by 5.6% + 20.2%= +25.8%. This might suggest to some that it could do very well going forward.

The best record of any publication on a risk adjusted basis is a service that recommends only mutual funds. It's website is listed below. It only costs about $100/yr. As above the data is through 12/31/01 and the same anualized percents total returns are used. They also have a mutual fund now, but I think the fees, within the fund are something like 1.5%/yr on top of the fees on the funds within the fund.
No-Load Fund X:
20yr: +15.8%
15yr: +14.5%
10yr: +17.5%
5yr: +21.4%

Since it trades mutual funds frequently its record has gotten better with the up and down market we have had lately, as opposed to the almost straight up market in the past.




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Black elk,
da gibt widersprüchliche Angaben, siehe Link.
Ich glaube, es herrscht ein wenig Verwirrung bezüglich der Rater.
Dennoch ist in den amerikanischen Foren ein Witzchen über die Performance von Prechter & Co. schon ein Running Gag, da haben sich schon viele blutige Nasen und leere Taschen geholt.
Manfred
<ul> ~ http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/106812.htm</ul>
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