.... zumindest verändern sich die Ã-l- und Produktpreisstrukturen bei den Forward Notierungen immer stärker von einer contango hin in eine backwardation Struktur. Die Tendenz für weiter ansteigende Notierungen wird hierdurch zunehmend untermauert.
Auf Basis der aktuell auf den Markt fundamental wirkenden Einflüssen ist der Preisanstieg noch nicht schlüssig nachvollziehbar.
Die Raffineriemargen können nur als absolut lausig bezeichnet werden.
Die Ergebnisse im Ã-l- und Chemiebereich tendieren von ausgeglichen bis hin zu negativ.
Einige Raffinerien haben im laufe der vergangenen Woche ihre Raffineriekapazitäten noch weiter reduzieren müssen. Die Produktenläger sind noch immer randvoll.
Dennoch - allein durch derartige Maßnahmen läßt sich die aktuelle angespannte Angebots und Nachfragesituation lösen.
Fazit: Die aktuell ansteigenden Notierungen werden nicht durch eine steigende Nachfrage sondern nur durch die ansteigenden Future Notierungen indiziert.
Dennoch - gerade die aktuelle beobachtete Marktsituation hat man in früheren Umbruchphasen auch beobachten können. In Anschluß an derartiger Phasen hat man in der Tendenz weiter ansteigende Notierungen beobachten können.
Nachlassende Risikoabsicherungen bei Produzenten, Raffinerien, short covering und verstärkte Käufe von Spekulanten, können die Notierungen rasch weiter antreiben. Dazu kommt die Entscheidung der USA, die strategischen Reserven in den kommenden Monaten auffüllen zu wollen.
Ein erhöhtes Kriegsrisiko (IRAK)kann den ansteigenden Trend bei den Rohöl-und Produktnotierungen dann nur noch verstärken.
Und nicht zu vergessen - Die OPEC scheint die Situation im Griff zu haben.
Gruß
K C
Crude Oil Rises on Expectations for Stronger Industrial Demand
By Mark Shenk
New York, March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a 4 1/2- month high after a report that U.S. manufacturing grew last month, signaling demand for petroleum products will strengthen.
U.S. manufacturing expanded in February for the first time in 19 months, an industry group said. Factories use about one-fourth of the products made from crude oil in the U.S. The report came after OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said the group will probably keep production limits in place for the rest of the year.
``The U.S. led the world into recession and should lead it out,'' said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management Inc. in St. Louis. ``You should see more demand from trucking, airlines and industrial operations.''
Crude oil for April delivery rose 66 cents, or 3 percent, to $22.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price for a contract closest to expiration since Oct. 12. Prices gained 6.3 percent this week and have rallied 13 percent this year.
In London, Brent crude oil for April settlement rose 56 cents, or 2.6 percent, to 21.89 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Prices gained 7.5 percent this week.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 54.7 last month from 49.9 in January. A reading above 50 signals expansion. The last time the index exceeded that level was July 2000.
``The economy is entering a period of expansion, which will result in increased demand for oil,'' said David Becker, energy derivatives trading manager at Citibank NA in New York.
Oil company shares were among the biggest gainers on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index on expectations that higher fuel demand will bolster profits. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil company, rose 49 cents to $41.79 in late afternoon trading. ChevronTexaco Corp. was 37 cents higher at $84.81.
OPEC and Russia
While crude oil demand may strengthen, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which cut oil output four times in the past 14 months, probably will leave its quotas unchanged for the rest of the year, Rodriguez said.
``Growth in demand will be very modest this year,'' Rodriguez said in a telephone interview from OPEC's Vienna headquarters. ``I believe we will maintain the decision'' to restrict supplies in 2002.
Rodriguez also said he was confident that Russia, the second- biggest oil exporter after OPEC-member Saudi Arabia, will extend its export ceiling through June.
Oil rallied this year after Russia, Norway, Mexico, Angola and Oman joined with members of OPEC in pledging to reduce world supply by about 2 million barrels a day, or 2.5 percent. Russia's share was 150,000 barrels a day.
The secretary-general will meet with oil officials in Moscow next week to try to convince them to extend the export limits.
Even so, Russian oil companies will probably restore exports to pre-January levels in the second quarter, said Alexei Turbin, a spokesman for the Russian energy ministry.
Extending the Cuts
``OPEC officials will be trying to convince us to extend the export cuts,'' Turbin said. ``This is unlikely, as there was no consolidated decision made by oil companies to do so.''
The 10 OPEC members with quotas, all except Iraq, pumped 22.5 million barrels a day in February, down 1.3 percent from a revised January estimate of 22.8 million barrels, said Conrad Gerber of Geneva-based PetroLogistics Ltd., which tracks oil shipments.
Output still was 800,000 barrels a day above the group's quota of 21.7 million barrels a day.
``There should be some slippage in OPEC quota compliance, and Russia appears to be ramping up production,'' Banc of America's Reaser said. ``The wild card is OPEC adherence. Revenue stress in Venezuela and some countries in the Middle East will work against strict adherence'' to the group's production quotas.
Gasoline for April delivery rose 2.82 cents, or 4.2 percent, to 70.6 cents a gallon on the New York exchange, the highest closing price for a contract closest to expiration since Sept. 21. Prices were up 7.4 percent this week. Heating oil for April delivery rose 1.72 cents, or 3 percent, to 58.87 cents a gallon. Prices were up 7.5 percent this week.
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Der Anstieg der Rohöl- und Produktenpreisen kann weiter gehen. Das fundamentale Umfeld spricht immer mehr für weiter ansteigende Preisverläufe bei Rohöl und Produkten (siehe unten). Die technischen Indikatoren haben bereits im Vorfeld frühzeitig auf diese Entwicklung hin zu festeren Notierungen hingewiesen.
Die Raffineriemargen fallen weiterhin"bescheiden" aus - Raffineriecuts bewirken jedoch einen sukzessiven Abbau der Produktbestände. Die Preisstrukturen bei den Rohöl- und Produktenpreisen haben sich weiter verbessert und untermauern somit weiter ansteigende Kursverläufe bei Rohöl und Produkten. In Verbindung mit der fahrfreudigen Verhalten der US Bürger und den spannungsreichen Krisenherden (IRAK/naher Osten) haben die Rohöl-und Produktnotierungen sicher noch einiges vor sich.
nice evening
K C
03/13 13:35
Gasoline Rises to Six-Month High as U.S. Inventories Decline
By Mark Shenk
New York, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gasoline futures rose to a six-month high after an industry report showed an unexpectedly large drop in U.S. inventories last week.
The 1.6 percent drop in supplies reported by the American Petroleum Institute was triple the size that analysts expected. Refineries last week slowed production to 85 percent of nationwide capacity, a two-year low, at a time when they normally increase supplies for the warm-weather months.
``There is a big bounce in the U.S. economy, which is resulting in greater fuel use,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Demand should be healthy in the months ahead, and I bet we will see it reach records this summer as Americans take to the roads.''
Gasoline for April delivery rose as much as 1.46 cents, or 1.9 percent, to 80 cents a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest price since Sept. 19. Prices have surged 39 percent this year. Futures represent wholesale prices.
An 8.8 percent rally in futures last week spurred the biggest jump in U.S. retail gasoline prices in two years, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
Pump prices rose 7.9 cents in the week ended Monday to a nationwide average of $1.22 a gallon. It was the biggest weekly increase since March 2000.
Some cities, including Los Angeles and Houston, saw costs rise more than 10 cents a gallon, the weekly survey of 900 filling stations showed. Prices still were down about 19 cents a gallon from a year earlier.
Refinery Shutdowns
Several refineries in Texas and the western U.S., including plants run by Valero Corp. and Marathon Ashland Petroleum LLC, were forced to shut down last week because of power failures and mechanical problems, analysts said. The shutdowns came as other refineries took some units out of service for planned repairs.
A 23 percent rally in crude oil prices this year helped send gasoline higher. Increased concern that the U.S. will attack Iraq as part of its war on terrorists has boosted prices that already were rising because of OPEC production cuts, analysts said.
Crude oil accounts for 36 percent of the retail cost of gasoline, according to the Energy Department.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet Friday and is expected to keep in place the output cuts it instituted at the start of the year. OPEC, which pumps about one- third of the world's oil, slashed its production targets four times in the space of a year in an effort to boost prices.
``OPEC has done the right thing to support prices,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York. ``They may have gone too far, if stability was their aim.''
U.S. inventories of crude oil fell 443,000 barrels, or 0.1 percent, to 319.5 million barrels last week. It was only the second decline this year.
Higher Prices
Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 45 cents to $24.65 a barrel in New York. Prices have gained 22 percent this year, reaching a 5 1/2-month high of $24.75 on Thursday.
In London, Brent crude oil for April settlement rose as much as 52 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $24.22 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
Inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 6.56 million barrels, or 4.9 percent, to 128.4 million barrels, the biggest weekly decline since Feb. 4, 2000.
Heating oil for April delivery rose as much as 1.51 cents, or 2.4 percent, to 65 cents a gallon in New York, the highest price since Oct. 12.
03/13 08:58
OPEC to Boost Oil Prices as Own Economies Stagnate (Update1)
By Alex Lawler
Vienna, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC members from Algeria to Venezuela, which rely on oil and gas sales to drive their economies, are preparing to boost prices this year to restart domestic growth, analysts said.
In Venezuela, 65 percent of the public wants President Hugo Chavez to quit after the nation's currency was devalued last month, the result of a weakening economy. Saudi Arabia faces an unemployment rate of at least 15 percent. Indonesia's budget deficit this year may total 43 trillion rupiah ($4.3 billion).
``There isn't really any oil-producing country that doesn't need a higher price today, except maybe Norway,'' said Robert Ebel, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. For OPEC, ``higher prices would be more than welcome. That's the fix they are in because of overwhelming reliance on oil.''
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Friday, and analysts expect the group to maintain current output cuts that helped oil prices jump 22 percent this year. Concern the U.S. may attack OPEC member Iraq in its war against terrorism has also bolstered prices.
Expectations by traders for a turnaround economies in Europe and the U.S., which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, also helped lift crude oil.
A drop in oil prices to a two-year low in November because of a standoff between OPEC and rival exporter Russia left many analysts doubting that oil-dependent governments can raise sufficient revenue to cover spending this year. Russia later agreed to lower exports to help prevent a glut.
Algeria's oil minister, Chakib Khelil, in Moscow today said OPEC wants its price index between $22 to $28 a barrel, a goal suspended last year. Prices won't fall because of concern about the stability of Middle Eastern supplies, he said.
Outlook
``As long as there is uncertainty in the Middle East, we will see oil prices above $20 a barrel,'' Khelil said during a visit to Moscow.
OPEC's price index reached $22 Monday, its first time in the group's target range since September. In London, benchmark Brent crude oil was recently up 21 cents at $23.91 a barrel.
OPEC's 11 nations hold almost 80 percent of the world's known oil reserves yet pump only about 35 percent of its supply, restraining output to inflate prices.
For the world economy, prices have not yet risen to levels that cause concern.
``We're coming off last year's higher oil prices of between $25 and $30 a barrel, so at $20 to $25 a barrel, it's not yet a threat to inflation or economic growth,'' said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist at G.K. Goh Research Pte. in Singapore.
Prices will rise further, to $35 a barrel in the fourth quarter if OPEC maintains its present supply curbs for the rest of this year, the Centre for Global Energy Studies estimates. OPEC's secretary-general, Ali Rodriguez, and the oil minister for Qatar, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, have advocated such a move.
OPEC in December agreed to lower its production target by 6.5 percent, or 1.5 million barrels a day, from Jan. 1 through June after independent producers Russia, Norway, Mexico, Oman and Angola agreed to pare 462,500 barrels a day between them.
Low Quotas
The last round of reductions brought OPEC's official quotas to a 10-year low. OPEC nations routinely pump more oil than is targeted under the quotas, though the temptation to sell even more crude increases as oil prices rise, analysts have said.
The group has yet to renew last year's threats upon rivals such as Russia. Production by independent producers will outstrip growth in world demand for the second year in a row, with Russia grabbing the lion's share, according to forecasts from the International Energy Agency.
Oil consumption will rise by 420,000 barrels a day in 2002, while non-OPEC producers will boost output by 960,000 barrels, the IEA said. Demand growth of 100,000 barrels a day last year was the slowest rate since 1985.
Target
In December Moscow agreed to trim foreign sales by 150,000 barrels a day though March, and has yet to say if it will maintain the measure through June. Rodriguez has said he is ``confident'' it will.
Some investors speculate that oil demand later in the year may recover even more than expected now, allowing OPEC to pump more crude and raise additional revenue.
OPEC countries ``need over $20 oil to help balance their budgets, (but) a price of $25 would risk damaging the global economy,'' said Steve Thornber, who manages 1 billion pounds ($1.41 billion) in U.K. shares at Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. ``OPEC is probably targeting the lower end of the $22 to $28 price band.''
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