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A stock we've been asked about many times over the past several months is
silver/gold producer Coeur D'Alene (NYSE: CDE). Our advice has always been
that CDE's enormous debt made it unsuitable as an investment and even as a
trade since the company has periodically been at risk of going under.

Until today we hadn't taken a close look at CDE since around this time last
year. Prior to the April/May surge there was no reason to look closely at a
small silver/gold producer with massive debt since there were other stocks
that presented far more appealing risk/reward ratios. For example, why would
we take on the likely aggravation of owning CDE when a company such as
Corner Bay Silver (BAY) was still exceptional value? However, over the past
2 months it has become far more difficult to find good value amongst the
stocks of gold and silver producers, so today we decided to take another
look at CDE.

CDE is expected to produce 15M ounces of silver and 100K ounces of gold this
year. At current prices that amounts to revenue of about US$106M. This is a
healthy sum since CDE's current market cap is only about $100M.

CDE's proven and probable reserves are 83M ounces of silver and 2.3M ounces
of gold, or 3.5M ounces of gold equivalent. This means that CDE's gold
reserves are selling for less than US$30/ounce. This is low.

CDE's major drawback, as usual, is its debt. We estimate that its total debt
is around US$140M, a huge sum for such a small company. However, the company
has done a good job of restructuring its debt such that almost none of it
matures until at least the end of 2003. This means that CDE is now
positioned to survive for at least another 18 months. For this reason CDE
can be likened to a call option on the prices of gold and silver with an
expiry date at least 18 months into the future. Provided we get a
substantial and sustained gold/silver rally at some point between now and
the end of next year the value of this call option will increase
dramatically.

We are going to add a trading position in CDE to the TSI Portfolio and we
will treat it the same way we treat our call option positions. In other
words this is an all-or-nothing speculation, not an investment. CDE closed
at US$1.74 yesterday and that's the price we'll use for record purposes.
There is good support at around 1.50 and resistance at around 2.00.

In the Weekly Update we said that if the stock market headed back down
immediately and broke below last week's lows it would most likely set up a
good short-term buying opportunity. Monday's action moved the odds in favour
of an immediate breakdown. If such a breakdown occurs today and we get a
substantial spike in fear then we'll probably recommend one or two long-side
trades.

The CRB futures broke-out to the upside on Monday, thus confirming last
Friday's breakout in the cash CRB Index.

Please refer to the Weekly Update for all other analysis/views.

Best wishes,
Steve Saville


Mit freundlicher Erlaubnis von Steve, herzliche Grüsse Drooy


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>A stock we've been asked about many times over the past several months is
>silver/gold producer Coeur D'Alene (NYSE: CDE). Our advice has always been
>that CDE's enormous debt made it unsuitable as an investment and even as a
>trade since the company has periodically been at risk of going under.
>Until today we hadn't taken a close look at CDE since around this time last
>year. Prior to the April/May surge there was no reason to look closely at a
>small silver/gold producer with massive debt since there were other stocks
>that presented far more appealing risk/reward ratios. For example, why would
>we take on the likely aggravation of owning CDE when a company such as
>Corner Bay Silver (BAY) was still exceptional value? However, over the past
>2 months it has become far more difficult to find good value amongst the
>stocks of gold and silver producers, so today we decided to take another
>look at CDE.
>CDE is expected to produce 15M ounces of silver and 100K ounces of gold this
>year. At current prices that amounts to revenue of about US$106M. This is a
>healthy sum since CDE's current market cap is only about $100M.
>CDE's proven and probable reserves are 83M ounces of silver and 2.3M ounces
>of gold, or 3.5M ounces of gold equivalent. This means that CDE's gold
>reserves are selling for less than US$30/ounce. This is low.
>CDE's major drawback, as usual, is its debt. We estimate that its total debt
>is around US$140M, a huge sum for such a small company. However, the company
>has done a good job of restructuring its debt such that almost none of it
>matures until at least the end of 2003. This means that CDE is now
>positioned to survive for at least another 18 months. For this reason CDE
>can be likened to a call option on the prices of gold and silver with an
>expiry date at least 18 months into the future. Provided we get a
>substantial and sustained gold/silver rally at some point between now and
>the end of next year the value of this call option will increase
>dramatically.
>We are going to add a trading position in CDE to the TSI Portfolio and we
>will treat it the same way we treat our call option positions. In other
>words this is an all-or-nothing speculation, not an investment. CDE closed
>at US$1.74 yesterday and that's the price we'll use for record purposes.
>There is good support at around 1.50 and resistance at around 2.00.
>In the Weekly Update we said that if the stock market headed back down
>immediately and broke below last week's lows it would most likely set up a
>good short-term buying opportunity. Monday's action moved the odds in favour
>of an immediate breakdown. If such a breakdown occurs today and we get a
>substantial spike in fear then we'll probably recommend one or two long-side
>trades.
>The CRB futures broke-out to the upside on Monday, thus confirming last
>Friday's breakout in the cash CRB Index.
>Please refer to the Weekly Update for all other analysis/views.
>Best wishes,
>Steve Saville
>
>Mit freundlicher Erlaubnis von Steve, herzliche Grüsse Drooy


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In dem von dir geposteten Artikel steht, sie hätten Ihre Schulden von 140 Mio $ reorganisiert - und zwar so, dass diese Schulden erst gegen Ende des jahres 2003 wieder fällig werden. Zumindest gewinnt man diesen Eindruck nach Lesen dieser zeilen:

"CDE's major drawback, as usual, is its debt. We estimate that its total debt
is around US$140M, a huge sum for such a small company. However, the company
has done a good job of restructuring its debt such that almost none of it
matures until at least the end of 2003."

Tatsächlich aber haben Sie einen großen Brocken Ihrer Schulden in neue Aktie umgewandelt (ca. 15 mio. Stück), mit dem dann zwar das KGV etc. verwässert wird - aber Schulden auch tatsächlich abgebaut wurden. Bei dem Abbau dieser schulden wurden einige Halter von Schuldverschreibungen die keine aktien wollten, sogar mit Cash in Höhe von insgesamt rund 10 Mio. $ abgefunden.
All dies ist nachzulesen in Ihren offiziellen Nachrichten. Die gelungene Operation war auch verantwortlich für das starke Sinken des Kurses zur Mitte des Mais hin - als zuerst viele umtauschten und die erworbenen Aktien auf den Markt warfen - und direkt danach für den starken Anstieg unter extrem riesengroßen Umsätzen (CDE gallopierte in5 agen von1,06 auf ca 1,76), als für andere sichtbar wurde das sich die Schulden lage sichtbar gelöst wurde.

insgesamt:
1. Es sind heute viel weniger Schulden als die angegeben 140 Mio. $
2. Nur einn kleiner Teil davon wird gegen Ende 2003 fällig.
3. laut CEO Wheeler wird bei CDE pro 0,1 $ Anstieg im Silber-Spotpreis der CashFlow von CDE um mindestens 1,5 Mio $ erhöht.

p.S. ich bin glücklich, sie vor zwei, drei Tagen noch im Tief bei 1,6 Euro in Frankfurt nachkaufen zu können.

gruß Yatri

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>In dem von dir geposteten Artikel steht, sie hätten Ihre Schulden von 140 Mio $ reorganisiert - und zwar so, dass diese Schulden erst gegen Ende des jahres 2003 wieder fällig werden. Zumindest gewinnt man diesen Eindruck nach Lesen dieser zeilen:
>"CDE's major drawback, as usual, is its debt. We estimate that its total debt
>is around US$140M, a huge sum for such a small company. However, the company
>has done a good job of restructuring its debt such that almost none of it
>matures until at least the end of 2003."
>Tatsächlich aber haben Sie einen großen Brocken Ihrer Schulden in neue Aktie umgewandelt (ca. 15 mio. Stück), mit dem dann zwar das KGV etc. verwässert wird - aber Schulden auch tatsächlich abgebaut wurden. Bei dem Abbau dieser schulden wurden einige Halter von Schuldverschreibungen die keine aktien wollten, sogar mit Cash in Höhe von insgesamt rund 10 Mio. $ abgefunden.
>All dies ist nachzulesen in Ihren offiziellen Nachrichten. Die gelungene Operation war auch verantwortlich für das starke Sinken des Kurses zur Mitte des Mais hin - als zuerst viele umtauschten und die erworbenen Aktien auf den Markt warfen - und direkt danach für den starken Anstieg unter extrem riesengroßen Umsätzen (CDE gallopierte in5 agen von1,06 auf ca 1,76), als für andere sichtbar wurde das sich die Schulden lage sichtbar gelöst wurde.
>insgesamt:
>1. Es sind heute viel weniger Schulden als die angegeben 140 Mio. $
>2. Nur einn kleiner Teil davon wird gegen Ende 2003 fällig.
>3. laut CEO Wheeler wird bei CDE pro eine Woche lang 0,1 $ Anstieg im Silber-Spotpreis der CashFlow von CDE um mindestens 1,5 Mio $ erhöht.
>p.S. ich bin glücklich, sie vor zwei, drei Tagen noch im Tief bei 1,6 Euro in Frankfurt nachkaufen zu können.
>gruß Yatri


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