-->Hallo zusammen,

Gold steigt und DROOY fällt.
Hat jemand eine Erklärung hierfür?
Habe bis jetzt keine schlechten Nachrichten zu DROOY gefunden.

Gruß
Albrecht

-->>Hallo zusammen,
>Gold steigt und DROOY fällt.
>Hat jemand eine Erklärung hierfür?
>Habe bis jetzt keine schlechten Nachrichten zu DROOY gefunden.
>Gruß
>Albrecht

Das muß mit der steigenden Währung zusammenhängen denn der Rand gewinnt momentan gegenüber dem Dollar.
Damit werden die Produktionskosten etwas teurer und die Gewinnspanne sinkt.
Gruß EUKLID

-->Hat was zu tun mit den Diskussionen hier:

www.miningweb.co.za



>Durban Deep ripped on accounting

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2002/10/29 Tue 21:00 | © Mineweb 1997-2002


NEW YORK -- BOE Securities (S. Africa) does its best to keep analyst reports from wide circulation, but Mineweb has landed a fascinating examination of Durban Deep’s [DROOY] third quarter results by mining analyst, Gary Pearson.
Distributed to BOE clients earlier this week, the report is a no-holds barred dissection of the results that flips most house views upside down. “Don’t take the numbers at face value” is the headline for a section that goes on to warn that the doubling in headline earnings per share for the three months to end September could not disguise a poor quarter.

Johannesburg based Pearson writes that without a big move in the gold price, Durbans “shareholders will still suffer the same negative cash flows - around R150m ($14.7m) over the next year!” That will surprise many investors who took at face value Durbans’ claim to be entirely hedge free.

Not so, says Pearson: “Durban Deep has effectively transferred (hidden) the losses associated with its previous hedge book from the income statement to the balance sheet and cash flow statement.” This follows from closing its hedge book using forward purchase agreements that offset its hedging exposure. That effectively makes the touted gearing to the spot gold price a chimera, leaving the group’s financial position “no better than it was before.”

In an era where accounting probity is paramount, Pearson delivers a facetious backhander: “Durban Deep could never be accused of consistent accounting. Without fail the group seems to restate figures from quarter to quarter and this reporting period was no different. This time the change was with regard to the Eskom linked tariff (hedge).”

Eskom is South Africa’s state power generator, transmitter and industrial distributor. The hedge refers to a 15,000 ounce / 75 gigawatt swap the company undertook with the parastatal whilst the gold price was a lot lower and the rand rather more valuable.

The electricity deal has elicited considerable comment since Durbans has been selling itself aggressively as a member of the hedge-free denomination. However, Durbans’ chief executive, Mark Wellesley-Wood, describes it as a “cost hedge”; more acceptable parlance of late where put option protection against adverse conditions - in this case more expensive power - is not anathema to investors.

The downside protection came late though since the initial contract was a straight swap agreement that caused Durban’s electricity costs to rise just as fast as the gold price. In other words, Durbans bet against the gold price and lost. It has subsequently written calls to mitigate the negative impact and Wellesley-Wood is emphatic that “there is no exposure,” meaning margin calls.

“This is an ‘off-taker’ - a consumer with his supplier doing a deal. There are no bullion banks, no mark-to-market, no hedges, no funnies,” he told Mineweb’s sister radio show this week. Nevertheless, the market appears to be reading it as a harmful gold derivative rather than a straightforward put.

Pearson notes that Durbans did not disclose details of the hedge until the second quarter, and its accounting treatment has changed from having “the premium on the electricity bill deducted from the revenue line to showing it as a separate cost item. While there may be nothing technically wrong with this situation, we do question the motives of the continuous changes in the accounting disclosure.”

As a result, Pearson still treats Durbans as hedged and what’s more, he assigns a hefty loss on a mark-to-market basis, although Wellesley-Wood is adamant there is no such thing.

“The Eskom link tariff is a rand gold price hedge of significant proportions - estimated negative mark-to-market value of R600m ($59m) at the current gold price and exchange rate,” Pearson says. He estimates that in order to breakeven, Durbans needs a basement gold price of $243 per ounce based on a R10.20 per dollar exchange rate.

The “book” is incredibly volatile with a ten percent depreciation in the rand-dollar price and ten per cent appreciation in the gold price potentially doubling the unrealised loss for Durbans based on today’s (Tuesday) closing prices. The graph below shows the estimated mark-to-market discount based on Pearson’s formula:



“While Durban Deep has made arrangements to close out its traditional hedge book, it has still capped a portion of its upside to either rand weakness or dollar gold price strength. In an attempt to reduce the impact of the Eskom hedge, management has purchased 126,000 ounces of call options at R113,813 per kilogram (±$347/oz) at a cost of R15m ($1.47m). This will cap the losses on 23% of the Eskom hedge, in the event that the gold price surpasses this value. Management intends to continue purchasing calls but we certainly hope that the mistakes of yesteryear are not repeated.”

BOE says that even with a generous 5% discount rate and $320 per ounce gold price, Durbans only trades at 1.9 times discounted cash flow, leaving it at the bottom of the rankings. “We would caution that the forecast risk (not to mention the technical and financial risk) inherent in the group is immense.”

If Durbans cannot show significant cost control in the coming quarters, BOE says the consequence could be a “significant earnings downgrade,” and the company is maintaining its sell on the stock for both the near and long-term.






Comment on this story >

Durban Deep ripped on accounting (Tim Wood)
.. Since when does Mineweb get to publish confidential research, or was it leaked to you? (Fund manager)
.... It was right through the market long before we got it. (Tim Wood)
...... The fundamental point is that research is created in order to generate brokerage ()
........ Too precious (Tim Wood)
.......... Tim... I applaud your sleuthing efforts because it is the only way to get any real DRD info (Beam_Me_Up)
.......... You want stories but are not prepared to pay for it, you piggy-back off other people's hard work (another fund manager)
............ Bizarre (Tim Wood)
.......... Whos ays BOE did not lose money? If they wanted you and the whole world to know they would have put it on SENS or Reuters (Fund manager)
............ But that is the whole point! (Tim Wood)
.. ()
.... Thanks and comments... (Durbanite)
...... Come on Mark W.W. - Time for another radio chit chat.. (PNB)
.. Is DRD not one of Moneyweb's corporate governance finalists? How pathetic ()
.."...without a big move in the gold price..." (ni)




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INTERVIEW: Mark Wellesley-Wood, chief executive, DRD

DRD reaps hedge benefits

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DRD stands behind ERPM




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-->Hat was zu tun mit den Diskussionen hier:

www.miningweb.co.za



>Durban Deep ripped on accounting

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2002/10/29 Tue 21:00 | © Mineweb 1997-2002


NEW YORK -- BOE Securities (S. Africa) does its best to keep analyst reports from wide circulation, but Mineweb has landed a fascinating examination of Durban Deep’s [DROOY] third quarter results by mining analyst, Gary Pearson.
Distributed to BOE clients earlier this week, the report is a no-holds barred dissection of the results that flips most house views upside down. “Don’t take the numbers at face value” is the headline for a section that goes on to warn that the doubling in headline earnings per share for the three months to end September could not disguise a poor quarter.

Johannesburg based Pearson writes that without a big move in the gold price, Durbans “shareholders will still suffer the same negative cash flows - around R150m ($14.7m) over the next year!” That will surprise many investors who took at face value Durbans’ claim to be entirely hedge free.

Not so, says Pearson: “Durban Deep has effectively transferred (hidden) the losses associated with its previous hedge book from the income statement to the balance sheet and cash flow statement.” This follows from closing its hedge book using forward purchase agreements that offset its hedging exposure. That effectively makes the touted gearing to the spot gold price a chimera, leaving the group’s financial position “no better than it was before.”

In an era where accounting probity is paramount, Pearson delivers a facetious backhander: “Durban Deep could never be accused of consistent accounting. Without fail the group seems to restate figures from quarter to quarter and this reporting period was no different. This time the change was with regard to the Eskom linked tariff (hedge).”

Eskom is South Africa’s state power generator, transmitter and industrial distributor. The hedge refers to a 15,000 ounce / 75 gigawatt swap the company undertook with the parastatal whilst the gold price was a lot lower and the rand rather more valuable.

The electricity deal has elicited considerable comment since Durbans has been selling itself aggressively as a member of the hedge-free denomination. However, Durbans’ chief executive, Mark Wellesley-Wood, describes it as a “cost hedge”; more acceptable parlance of late where put option protection against adverse conditions - in this case more expensive power - is not anathema to investors.

The downside protection came late though since the initial contract was a straight swap agreement that caused Durban’s electricity costs to rise just as fast as the gold price. In other words, Durbans bet against the gold price and lost. It has subsequently written calls to mitigate the negative impact and Wellesley-Wood is emphatic that “there is no exposure,” meaning margin calls.

“This is an ‘off-taker’ - a consumer with his supplier doing a deal. There are no bullion banks, no mark-to-market, no hedges, no funnies,” he told Mineweb’s sister radio show this week. Nevertheless, the market appears to be reading it as a harmful gold derivative rather than a straightforward put.

Pearson notes that Durbans did not disclose details of the hedge until the second quarter, and its accounting treatment has changed from having “the premium on the electricity bill deducted from the revenue line to showing it as a separate cost item. While there may be nothing technically wrong with this situation, we do question the motives of the continuous changes in the accounting disclosure.”

As a result, Pearson still treats Durbans as hedged and what’s more, he assigns a hefty loss on a mark-to-market basis, although Wellesley-Wood is adamant there is no such thing.

“The Eskom link tariff is a rand gold price hedge of significant proportions - estimated negative mark-to-market value of R600m ($59m) at the current gold price and exchange rate,” Pearson says. He estimates that in order to breakeven, Durbans needs a basement gold price of $243 per ounce based on a R10.20 per dollar exchange rate.

The “book” is incredibly volatile with a ten percent depreciation in the rand-dollar price and ten per cent appreciation in the gold price potentially doubling the unrealised loss for Durbans based on today’s (Tuesday) closing prices. The graph below shows the estimated mark-to-market discount based on Pearson’s formula:



“While Durban Deep has made arrangements to close out its traditional hedge book, it has still capped a portion of its upside to either rand weakness or dollar gold price strength. In an attempt to reduce the impact of the Eskom hedge, management has purchased 126,000 ounces of call options at R113,813 per kilogram (±$347/oz) at a cost of R15m ($1.47m). This will cap the losses on 23% of the Eskom hedge, in the event that the gold price surpasses this value. Management intends to continue purchasing calls but we certainly hope that the mistakes of yesteryear are not repeated.”

BOE says that even with a generous 5% discount rate and $320 per ounce gold price, Durbans only trades at 1.9 times discounted cash flow, leaving it at the bottom of the rankings. “We would caution that the forecast risk (not to mention the technical and financial risk) inherent in the group is immense.”

If Durbans cannot show significant cost control in the coming quarters, BOE says the consequence could be a “significant earnings downgrade,” and the company is maintaining its sell on the stock for both the near and long-term.






Comment on this story >

Durban Deep ripped on accounting (Tim Wood)
.. Since when does Mineweb get to publish confidential research, or was it leaked to you? (Fund manager)
.... It was right through the market long before we got it. (Tim Wood)
...... The fundamental point is that research is created in order to generate brokerage ()
........ Too precious (Tim Wood)
.......... Tim... I applaud your sleuthing efforts because it is the only way to get any real DRD info (Beam_Me_Up)
.......... You want stories but are not prepared to pay for it, you piggy-back off other people's hard work (another fund manager)
............ Bizarre (Tim Wood)
.......... Whos ays BOE did not lose money? If they wanted you and the whole world to know they would have put it on SENS or Reuters (Fund manager)
............ But that is the whole point! (Tim Wood)
.. ()
.... Thanks and comments... (Durbanite)
...... Come on Mark W.W. - Time for another radio chit chat.. (PNB)
.. Is DRD not one of Moneyweb's corporate governance finalists? How pathetic ()
.."...without a big move in the gold price..." (ni)




Return to
Mineweb
Gold






Related stories
Is DRD's Argonaut fantastic odyssey?

INTERVIEW: Mark Wellesley-Wood, chief executive, DRD

DRD reaps hedge benefits

Durban Deep to raise R500 million

DRD stands behind ERPM




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Share Price Quote
SENS Archives
Related Articles




JSX:DUR Share Price - Daily



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Free subscription to
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Print this article

Email to a friend

-->>Das muß mit der steigenden Währung zusammenhängen denn der Rand gewinnt momentan gegenüber dem Dollar.
>Damit werden die Produktionskosten etwas teurer und die Gewinnspanne sinkt.
>Gruß EUKLID

Hallo EUKLID,

das könnte eine kleine Rolle spielen, aber in der Größenordnung halte ich den Währungseinfluß für unmöglich, denn der Gewinn einer Mine, die zu hohen Kosten produziert und von keinen Vorwärtsverkäufen belastet wird, steigt bei steigendem Goldpreis schneller als der Währungseinfluß wieder auffrist.

Ich warte jetzt nur noch auf die Meldung von Bush, daß Südafrika auch auf der Achse des Bösen liegt.
Ein Marinestützpunkt soll ja schon auf einer vorgelagerten Insel im Bau sein.

Gruß
Albrecht

-->...auch die anderen Goldminen laufen schlecht. Habe das in der Art schon oft beobachtet.

Gruss

tofir

-->

-->es geht über Hedging

kann jemand den ungefähren Inhalt in deutcher Sprache wiedergeben???

-->>es geht über Hedging
>kann jemand den ungefähren Inhalt in deutcher Sprache wiedergeben???

Zum (fehlgeschlagenen) Hedge:

Durban wollte sich gegen schwankeden Elektrizitaetspreis absichern und ist einen Swap (wahrscheinlcih Gold gegen Strom zahlbar in Rand) eingegangen. Aus dem Swap fahren sie jetzt Verluste (Gold gestiegen, Rand runter).

Den Swap haben Sie nicht richtig bilanziert, so dass die Verluste nicht in der GuV auftauchen.
Gegen die Verluste versucht sich Durban sich mit Gegengeschaeften (Kauf von Kaufoptionen (Strike 347US/oz) abzusichern.

Gruss
P

-->hallo
ich habe mich in diesem Zusammenhang ehrlich gesagt gewundert, dass nur Profi 'emerald' gestern für den von koenigin gepostet Artikel (gar nicht so schmeichelhaft für die SA-Minen) ein paar Zeilen über hatte.

Will man sowas einfach nicht wahrhaben?

Vielleicht liegt das schlappe Abschneider der Minen ja auch an solchen ganz banalen Dingen, wie hier in diesem Artikel aufgezeigt.Und immer und nur alles, was irgendein und jeglicher Analyst von sich gibt, pauschal als Fälschung,Betrug, Irrtum, Unwissenheit oder Täuschunghsversuch abzustempeln, halte ich mit Verlaub, auch für ziemlich, na was soll ich sagen, vermessen.
'emerald' - gilt nicht für Dich speziell - gilt allgemein.


Verdrängen ist ein schlechter Ratgeber. Und die Charts sehen - wie ich das als Halblaie beurteilen kann - ja auch nicht zum totlachen aus.

trotzdem gute Geschäfte und vielleicht gibts ja alles noch billiger.
Alles hat auch immer eine gute Seite.

tschuess
A.Weber

ich wiederhol´s lieber noch einmal - habe es unten kopiert

Geschrieben von Koenigin am 31. Oktober 2002 09:56:29:

Goldene Zeiten für Gold-Produzenten passé

Die wunderbaren Jahre für Südafrikas Goldproduzenten scheinen vorbei zu sein. Während einige noch von Sondereffekten profitieren, leiden andere unter einem festeren Rand und höheren Produktionskosten. Einige Analysten spekulieren darauf, dass der Goldpreis im Falle eines Irak-Krieges anziehen könnte.

KAPSTADT. Die Zeit märchenhafter Margen scheint für die südafrikanischen Goldproduzenten erst einmal vorbei zu sein. Zwar verzeichneten zwei der drei Goldfirmen auch im letzten Quartal einen leichten Gewinnanstieg. Doch spielten dabei besondere Umstände eine Rolle. Der Gewinnanstieg bei Durban Roodepoort Deep, dem viertgrößten Produzenten am Kap, erklärt sich mit dem Abbau der letzten Terminverkäufe. Und die Einkünfte von ARMgold, einer in schwarzen Händen befindlichen neuen Goldgruppe, wurden durch Zins- und Versicherungszahlungen künstlich erhöht.

Die Nummer drei, Harmony, bekam dagegen die gestiegenen Abbaukosten direkt zu spüren und verzeichnete einen Gewinnrückgang von 36 % auf 426 Mill. Rand (44 Mill. Euro). Auch von den Spitzenreitern der Goldliga, Anglogold und Gold Fields, werden in den nächsten Tagen keine positiven Ergebnisüberraschungen erwartet.

Harmony galt bislang als die Erfolgsstory am Kap. Nachdem das Unternehmen vor knapp sieben Jahren noch vor dem Bankrott stand, ist es unter Leitung von Bernard Swanepoel zum sechst größten Goldproduzenten der Welt avanciert. Seit 1995 hat es die Produktion auf über drei Mill. Unzen verfünffacht. Swanepoel wies aber darauf hin, dass die Konzerne heute weniger Dollar für das geförderte Gold. Grund ist die Erholung des südafrikanischen Rands nach dem Einbruch um 37 % im Dezember 2001. In diesem Jahr hat der Rand fast 20 % zum Dollar zugelegt. Zum anderen hatte der Währungseinbruch die Inflation geschürt - und mit ihr die Produktionskosten der Goldminen. Dennoch stiegen die Kurse weit stärker als die der kanadischen Konkurrenz, allen voran der dortige Klassenprimus Barrick. Dieser schockierte die Anleger Ende September mit einer Gewinnwarnung für das laufende Jahr.

Barricks Rückschlag war mit dafür verantwortlich, dass sich in den letzten zwei Jahren die Abschläge verringert haben, mit denen Südafrikas Goldkonzerne aus politischen Gründen gegenüber der Konkurrenz aus Australien und Kanada gehandelt werden. Die Südafrikaner profitierten daneben u.a. von der Schließung einiger unprofitabler Minen. All diese Fortschritte sind nun durch eine von der Regierung forcierte Bergbau-Charta gefährdet. Sie soll den Besitzanteil schwarzer Anteilseigner an der Minenindustrie erhöhen. Das Zutrauen der Anleger könnte dadurch irreparablen Schaden nehmen.

Laut Beobachtern wie Iraj Abedian, Chefökonom der Standard Bank, ist aber mit der Veröffentlichung der Charta die Unsicherheit über die Besitzverhältnisse verschwunden. Anleger könnten nun langfristiger kalkulieren. Richtig ist sicher, dass Südafrikas Goldwerte allein wegen ihrer hohen Einkünfte und Dividendenzahlungen eine recht attraktive Anlage für konservative Anleger bleiben. Für ein Engagement in Gold spricht auch, dass dessen Preis bei einem US-Angriff auf den Irak in Bereiche um 350 $ pro Unze vorstoßen könnte. Zuletzt hat sich der Goldpreis wieder auf 316 $ erholt.

Leon Esterhuizen vom Johannesburger Brokerhaus UBS Warburg sieht jetzt eine gute Einstiegschance für Investoren, die wirtschaftlich mit dem Schlimmsten rechnen: einen anhaltenden Niedergang der Aktienmärkte, weiteren Terroranschlägen oder sogar einem Zusammenbruch des Finanzsystems. Doch birgt die Strategie, nur zu Spotmarktpreisen zu verkaufen, beträchtliche Risiken. Denn im Fall einer Hausse an den Aktienmärkten ist ein neuerlicher Verfall des Goldpreises keineswegs ausgeschlossen.

-->OPEN LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS BY CHAIRMAN AND CEO MARK
WELLESLEY-WOOD REGARDING THE ESKOM GOLD LINKED
ELECTRICITY TARIFF AND OTHER MATTERS
Once again, I’m writing to you to set the record straight; more specifically, in this
instance, to address any misperceptions that may have been created about
DRD’s contract with Eskom and other matters, arising from a BoE report dated
24 October and a subsequent Mineweb report, quoting BoE, dated 29 October.
I would suggest that, if you have read neither reports, you ignore both and direct
any queries you may have regarding the Eskom contract directly to me or to
DRD’s CFO, Ian Murray.
For those of you who have read one or both reports, and are disturbed, I would
offer the following by way of clarification:
BoE asserts that: “DRD has effectively transferred (hidden) the losses associated
with its previous hedgebook from the income statement to the balance sheet and
cash flow statement”.
Mineweb deduces: “This follows from closing its hedge book using forward
purchase agreements that offset its hedging exposure. That effectively makes
the touted gearing to the spot gold price a chimera, leaving the group’s financial
position no better than before”.
In fact, when the previous hedge book was closed out in May and June
2002, the full mark-to-market loss on the positions (R837m) was recognized
in the Income Statement. The corresponding outstanding amounts due to
the bullion banks were raised on the Balance Sheet as long- and short-term
borrowings amounting to R360m, with the remainder paid in cash prior to
year-end. The outstanding balance is payable over two years and does not
fluctuate with changes in the gold price or the R/$ exchange rate. This
treatment was compliant with SA GAAP as at the end of June 2002. Under
AC133, no further adjustments will be required.
Mineweb continues, quoting the BoE report: “…without a big move in the gold
price, Durban’s shareholders will still suffer the same negative cash flows -
around R150m ($14.7m) over the next year!”

In fact, while the Eskom hedge - at the current gold price and R/$ exchange
rate - will incur an additional electricity cost of R150m for the year, the
group will generate very healthy cash flows for the 2002/2003 financial
year. In the September 2002 quarter, DRD generated R100m from operating
activities after the additional Eskom cost of R28m.
To quote BoE again: “DRD could never be accused of consistent accounting.
Without fail the group seems to restate figures from quarter to quarter and this
reporting period was no different. This time the change was with regard to the
Eskom linked tariff (hedge).”
In fact, the accounting treatment for Eskom has not changed from the
previous quarter. The only change is that it is now shown as a separate line
item in the income statement and is not included in revenue as in the
previous quarter. The previous quarter’s revenue was restated in order to
be more consistent for comparative purposes. The effect is to give users
of the financial statements more information on the cost of this position.
There is no impact on EPS.
Mineweb quotes BoE as saying that “Durbans did not disclose details of the
hedge until the second quarter”.
In fact, BoE stated that “until the June quarter presentation, management
refused to disclose the magnitude of the hedge”. Both are wrong. The
Eskom hedge was discussed for the first time in the September 2000
quarterlies. To quote from that quarterly report: “The company has
concluded a gold-linked tariff agreement with Eskom, whereby 50% of the
group’s electricity cost over the next five years is linked to the dollar gold
spot price. Electricity accounts for 12% of the total production cost”. In
addition, the position has been disclosed in the company’s 2001 and 2002
annual reports, the 2001 20F filing with the United States Securities and
Exchange Commission and March 2001, June 2001, September 2001 and
June 2002 quarterly reports. Further, the 2001 20F filing disclosed the
mark-to-market of these positions.
Mineweb goes on to opine: “The ‘book’ is incredibly volatile, with a10%
depreciation in the rand-dollar price and 10% appreciation in the gold price
potentially doubling the unrealized loss for Durbans based on today’s (Tuesday)
closing prices”.
In fact, the rand gold price needs to increase by 53% for the Eskom
position to double, which means from the gold price, currently at $316 per
ounce, would need to increase to $485 per ounce at a R/$ exchange rate of
10:1. In addition, the company has entered into a call buying strategy to be
funded out of operating cash flow, whereby the exposure will be capped
and the electricity cost will not increase pro-rata to the increase in rand
gold price. In other words, after this strategy is implemented the position
will not double at any gold price.
I hopes this helps.
With best wishes,
Mark Wellesley-Wood