-->Noch ein kleiner Artikel für die Sammlung"Clowns of the Fed" aus der NYT. Schon erstaunlich was da soll alles als"Research" durchgeht.


March 30, 2003
Fed Economist Predicts Faster Return to Stocks


Americans who have moved money out of the stock market are likely to resume their embrace of equities much faster than investors did after big losses in the 1970's, according to a new research paper by an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Last week in the FRBSF Newsletter, Milton H. Marquis, a senior economist of the bank, noted that the size of most American stock portfolios has fallen sharply since the peak of the bull market in 2000, while the value of their investments in cash, bonds and housing has risen. During the bear market of the 1970's, similar shifts in holdings occurred. But it took eight years for investors to increase their stock allocations significantly, he said.

This time around, he said, Americans can be expected to move money into the stock market much more quickly. He cited what he saw as the fundamental strength of the economy, the important role of technology in enhancing productivity as well as market innovations like the growth of mutual funds and 401(k) plans as factors propelling a renewed embrace of stocks. "Households should begin to weight stocks more heavily in their asset holdings," he said,"making it unlikely that we will see a replay of the protracted bear market of the 1970's."

Another Exit From Stock Funds

Money continued to flow out of stock mutual funds in February, the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund trade group, said last week. Investors moved a net $11.1 billion from stock mutual funds, while bond funds received a net $18 billion, the institute said.


Seeking Help on Fund Costs

Representative Richard H. Baker, the Louisiana Republican who is chairman of the House capital markets subcommittee, has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to come up with ways to reduce fees and overall costs of mutual funds and to improve the funds' governance.

In a letter to William H. Donaldson, the chairman of the commission, Mr. Baker said:"I am troubled that there may be insufficient transparency of mutual fund fees, costs and operations. I am also concerned about mutual fund governance and the performance of fund directors, fund distribution practices and other matters." He asked Mr. Donaldson to respond with recommendations for legislative or regulatory actions by June 11.

In subcommittee hearings this month, several representatives cited a General Accounting Office report that said mutual fund fees had risen for most investors in recent years.
Compiled by Jeff Sommer
New York Times March 30, 2003

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-->"making it unlikely that we will see a replay of the protracted bear market of the 1970's."

Der Bärenmarkt wird natürlich keine Wiederholung der 70er sein. Denn dort verlor der DOW nur etwa die Hälfte. Von über 1000 auf knapp unter 600. Heute würde das bedeuten, dass der Bärenmarkt bei ca. 5000-6000 beendet sein könnte. Das bezweifle ich angesichts der hohen Bewertungen dann doch sehr stark.
Ein Dow über 4000 Punkten ist es gar nicht Wert über"langfristige" Käufe diskutiert zu werden!

-->durchziehen wird: alternative Investments möglichst unattraktiv machen( Anleihen auf Teufel komm raus monetarisieren und gleichzeitig die Edelmetalle und
evtl weitere commodities 'in den Keller' manipulieren) in der
Hoffnung man werde die Anleger mangels Alternativen wieder in die
Aktien treiben können.
Verückt genug sind die.

-->>durchziehen wird: alternative Investments möglichst unattraktiv machen( Anleihen auf Teufel komm raus monetarisieren und gleichzeitig die Edelmetalle und
>evtl weitere commodities 'in den Keller' manipulieren) in der
>Hoffnung man werde die Anleger mangels Alternativen wieder in die
>Aktien treiben können.
>Verückt genug sind die.