-->keine Ahnung obs schon gepostet wurde ist ja schon etwas älter aber die Lage spitzt sich ja von Tag zu Tag zu.
Eigentlich bin ich kein Freund von Panikmache aber wenn die Anzahl der täglichen Ansteckungen nicht bis Ende Mai seinen Hochpunkt findet, wird das bestimmt mehr als die geschätzten 0,5 % Wachstumseinbruch in Asien geben. Man stelle sich vor Asien verliert 1-2 % Wachstum und die USA sind sowieso schon längst im zweiten Dip und haben ihre Probleme noch nicht mal Ansatzweise gelöst. Keine guten Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur. Bis jetzt scheint der Euro Gewinner der Panik zu sein.
09-Apr-03
The Economic Significance of the SARS Virus
Marc Faber
While SARS is at present still a relatively small problem, since it has only affected a miniscule percentage of the total global population, it may grow in the weeks ahead exponentially. Since plagues such as SARS occur infrequently, it is worthwhile to look at past plague patterns. But let us first take a look at the reported number of cases and deaths over the last two weeks, which are probably understated by Asian governments since they do not wish to hurt their tourist industries (Thailand has for instance so far only reported 5 cases and one death).
SARS Cases and Deaths (by date and official data from WHO)
Date Cases Deaths
22. March 350 10
24. March 456 17
28. March 1485 53
31. March 1622 58
At present there is no known cure for the disease and only little is known about the strain. In the last century there were three instances of a similar influenza caused by viruses which had undergone major genetic changes resulting in large, global pandemics.
The Spanish Flu (1918-1919)
This strain killed approximately 40 million people worldwide and was first discovered in Kansas. Within two days 522 people were sick and within one week every State in America had been affected. Within one month it had spread across the Atlantic and to Asia and infected about 20% of the world's population. The mortality rate was 2 ½% to 5% and it killed ten times more people than World War I. After about 18 months it completely disappeared.
The Asian Flu (1957
In February 1957, the influenza pandemic was first identified in the Far East. Unlike the one in 1918, it was quickly identified, and a vaccine was found to be effective in preventing it. It spread slowly in the US, but more than 60,000 people died of it.
The Hong Kong Flu (1968)
The Hong Kong Flu (1968) It broke out in Hong Kong and showed up a few months later in the US. It was treatable with antibiotics, but still killed more than 30,000 people in the US.
In the case of SARS it is possible that we are dealing with a pandemic, which will compare in scale to the Spanish Flu of 1918. In such a case, it would have a devastating impact on the already fragile global economy and on tourism, which has already declined because of poor economic conditions and the Iraqi war.
Moreover, should it become clear that the virus, which causes SARS can be transmitted through the air, airlines would lose almost all their business for a while, since viruses can spread on airlines like a bushfire. At the same time, business in Hong Kong would almost come to a standstill (retail sales tumbled in the last two weeks by 50%!), since the disease could spread as well in centrally air-conditioned buildings. In fact, I would not be surprised if some countries would ban flights from Hong Kong and China at some point. In view of this possible horror scenario, I am somewhat surprised that the Hong Kong market has not sold off more than it did in the last few days, which is more or less in line with the stock market weakness elsewhere. Possibly the Hong Kong government is once again intervening in the share market and is buying shares in order to support it. In any event, SARS should in time create a buying opportunity, but for now - in absence of knowing how severe the pandemic will become - it may be best to stay on the sideline and look after one's physical health.
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