-->US-Verbraucherpreise sinken stärker als erwartet
Finanzen.net

Das US-Arbeitsministerium veröffentlichte die saisonbereinigte Entwicklung

der Verbraucherpreise in den USA für April 2003. Gegenüber dem Vormonat fielen die Lebenshaltungskosten um 0,3 Prozent, wogegen sie im März um 0,3 Prozent anstiegen. Volkswirte hatten durchschnittlich jedoch einen Preisrückgang von 0,1 Prozent geschätzt.

In der Kernrate, d.h. unter Herausrechnung der volatilen Preise für Nahrungsmittel und Energie, blieben die Preise wie schon im März unverändert gegenüber dem vorangegangenen Monat. Experten hatten mit einem Anstieg um 0,2 Prozent gerechnet.

Quelle: Finanzen.net 16.05.2003 15:06:00

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-->Confidence Continues to Fade
Consumer Confidence Loses Ground for the Third Straight Week

Analysis
By Dalia Sussman



N E W Y O R K, May 14— The farther removed from the war with Iraq, the worse consumer confidence gets: After soaring during the fighting it's lost ground for three straight weeks, giving back more than two-thirds of its wartime gains.


The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index surged by 13 points from March 23 through April 20, reaching a seven-month high. But since then it's lost nine points, falling from -15 to today's -24 on its scale of +100 to -100.

Confidence followed a similar course in 1991 — soaring briefly after the Gulf War, then turning down as the victory faded in memory and economic distress reasserted itself.

INDEX — The ABC/Money index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. The most positive gauge has taken the hardest hit: Fifty-two percent say their finances are in good shape, but that's down by eight points in the last three weeks.

Doubts about the economy continue to be the most negative gauge, with just 27 percent rating it positively, 14 points below the 17-year average. Thirty-five percent call it a good time to buy things, four points off the average.

LOOKING AHEAD — With ratings of current economic conditions slumping, optimism in the direction of the economy has stalled. Last month saw a 15-point drop in the number of Americans who said the economy was getting worse. This month, views are essentially unchanged. (This monthly measure of expectations is separate from the ABC/Money index).

TREND — The ABC/Money index has averaged -23 this year, compared to -11 last year, its weakest since 1996. Its best annual average was +29 in 2000; its worst, an average -44 in 1992. The index peaked at +38 in January 2000, and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +2 among people in higher-income households compared to -58 in the lowest, -10 among college graduates while -43 among high-school dropouts, -18 among whites but -54 among blacks and -19 among men while -29 among women.

The index remains a good deal lower in the Northeast (-38) than in other regions. And it peaks among Republicans at +7, compared to -29 among independents and -43 among Democrats.


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today -24
Three weeks ago -15

2003 Low -28
2002 Average -11
2001 Average +4
Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29 Best full year
1992 average -44 Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 -50 Record low
Average since 12/85 -9



Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

NATIONAL ECONOMY — Twenty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good; it was 29 percent last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 54 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need; it was 36 percent last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,001 interviews in the month ending May 11, 2003, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. The expectations question was conducted among 501 respondents April 30-May 11; that result has a 4.5-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.


Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.