-->The Daily Reckoning
London, England
Wednesday, 3 December 2003
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*** Welcome back... madness everywhere... in all its greedy,
insane glory...
*** The River-of-no-Returns at 93 times earnings - sell!
*** Cannibalism... Extreme Diet Plans... the dollar is doomed...
Soros and Buffett... and more!
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What a delight! What joy! It's back! There is madness
everywhere... How exhilarating... the pure, unmitigated greedy
insanity!
It was so much fun ridiculing the pretenses of the New Era... the
Information Age... the Dot.com bubble... the Peace Dividend...
the End of History....and the New Digital Man.
And then, boo hoo, along came the bear market of 2000-2002... All
of a sudden people seemed to sober up. For a moment, it looked as
though they might even lock up the liquor cabinet.
Then, the politicians began to drink. But politicians are mean
drunks. The madness that had made the stock market so amusing
took on a sinister regard. The Clash of Civilizations... Nation
Building... Bringing the Gift of Democracy to the Desert Tribes -
the entertainment was no less mad than the New Era, but much less
fun, for the script had been rewritten as a tragedy, rather than
the comedy it had been.
We giggle and guffaw when we see rich humbugs humbled... we laugh
out loud when puffed up IPOs finally blow up... we even smile
when the lumps get what is coming to them. But we take no
pleasure in body bags... for they never seem to contain the right
bodies. That is the trouble with war, dear reader. The bodies are
always those of the fools who undertook the errand... rather than
the fools who sent them.
But now, we are pleased to tell you, madness is back in style on
Wall Street, where it belongs... maaaadder than ever.
The"return of the tech bubble," is how London's MoneyWeek
describes it. The Bubble Reloaded is another headline we've seen.
The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 70% in the last 12 months. It now
trades at - get this, dear reader - 97 times this year's
earnings. Yahoo trades at a P/E of 112; Amazon, that great
River-of-no-Returns stock, trades at 93 times earnings.
These are not merely optimistic numbers, MoneyWeek quotes a pair
of analysts,"they're hallucinatory... Somehow this rally feels
like the... sequel to a movie you hoped never to see again."
What could possibly justify such high prices? Well, spectacular
growth. But a Goldman Sachs survey"shows that companies expect
to raise spending on technology by only a modest 1.3% in 2004,"
MoneyWeek continues.
IPOs are back. Even day trading. Our new friend Gregor, from
Houston, sends this note written by Alan Farley of
TheStreet.com:
"Hype and nonsense are back in style on Wall Street. Actually,
most of it has recently been emanating from Main Street, where
chat-room and stock-board aficionados are pumping low-float plays
to the trading masses, hoping their mangy dogs will bark for a
few days.
"For example, voice-over-Internet protocol, or VOIP, stocks
exploded last week in a tulip-inspired mania. Hound after hound,
these issues took off for the stratosphere, with superdog 8x8
Inc. (EGHT:Nasdaq) trading its entire 25-million-share float for
two sessions in a row. The move's origins came from chat rooms to
stock boards to the normally sedate Wall Street Journal, of all
places.
"... It was strikingly similar to another rocket ship that took
off during Thanksgiving week in 1999, when a questionable rally
left vacationing market makers holding large short positions into
historic losses. That half-day session left such big footprints
it forced the entire industry to change their practices to avoid
a similar fiasco.
"These manipulative rallies feed on themselves because so many
players down the food chain benefit by the short-term insanity.
Last week I saw newsletter writers, traders, and people who
should know better help their own cause by highlighting low-float
stocks that were getting sucked up by the public on every
mention, rumor and innuendo. To my industry friends and
associates, I say: Cut it out, because it's this kind of greedy
self-interest that will come back to haunt you one day."
Our calendar does not tell us which day 'one day' will be. But if
this is like Thanksgiving '99... we won't wait long.
Over to you, Addison, for more news:
--------------
Addison Wiggin, weighing in with the market's latest...
- Is it for real? Or just election year steroids?
- The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index rose to
62.8... the highest point it's reached in two years. The index
measures a distinct boost in factory output in November. That's
the 5th straight month for the index above the 50-point mark,
which indicates output is expanding rather than declining.
-"Activity is picking up from such an incredibly low level,"
Lara Rhame, an economist with Brown Brothers Harriman, told
Bloomberg."This sector is going to continue to be very cautious
about adding employees." Factories have ditched jobs for 39
straight months, bringing overall payrolls to their lowest point
since 1958. The latest jobs report comes out on Friday and will
be keenly watched by lackeys all over the West Wing.
-"U.S. productivity at its highest level in 20 years," reports
CBSMarketWatch.
- Stocks have borne the litany of bullish economic news with
ennuie. Yesterday was no different. The Dow slouched 46 points to
9853. The S&P and Nasdaq also slithered lower; nearly 4 and 10
points, respectively.
-"America's newfound cyclical vigor is hardly an accident,"
writes Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach."Washington has learned an
important lesson from the early 1990s. Eight years ago, the credo
was, 'It's the economy, stupid.' This year, it's politics,
stupid. Deep in our hearts, we all know predicting the future is
next to impossible. It stretches the imagination to conjure up a
macro scenario that is based on an exquisitely timed interplay of
political and economic cycles. Yet that's precisely the mindset
today - heedless of the costs America will incur as Washington
attempts to underwrite yet another Rosy Scenario."
- A Congressional Budget Office report released yesterday
suggested that about half of the nation's baby boomers will not
have enough savings to maintain their current standard of living
during retirement."Households with inadequate retirement savings
will confront an average of 19 years of living expenses they
can't pay for," reports the LA Times. What's even more
disturbing? The conclusion was drawn from studies completed in
2000, during the very apogee of the nation's"boom."
- In the 1990s, we note in Financial Reckoning Day,"baby boomers
remade the economy in their own image. Once relatively
high-saving, high capital investment, and high valued-added, the
economy shifted from producing what the boomers needed in the
long run to giving them what they wanted short term."
- The trend has renewed with vigor over the past 8 months.
"America's seemingly open-ended appetite for leverage remains one
of the most disturbing imbalances of the post-bubble period, in
my view," Roach also points out this week."For households, the
debt culture took on a new role in the latter half of the 1990s,
as America's consumption dynamic shifted from being income-driven
to one that was increasingly wealth-dependent. The first wave of
wealth effects was supported by the equity bubble. Once that
bubble popped, however, wealth support then shifted quickly into
property markets. The difference between equity- and
property-induced wealth effects is profound: Apart from margin
debt, the former is funded mainly out of a psychological sense of
well being; in the case of property, mortgage debt and its
ever-frequent refinancing are the principal means of extracting
incremental purchasing power from housing assets.
-"The income shortfall of a jobless recovery," Roach continues,
"a far more serious problem today than in the recovery of the
early 1990s, only heightens America's dependence on wealth-based,
debt-intensive support to aggregate demand. Such a shift in the
growth paradigm appears to have limited the post-bubble fallout
in the early years after the stock market plunged.
-"In the end, however, as wealth effects have morphed into a far
more pervasive cultural phenomenon of excess leverage, the
ultimate post-bubble payback may be all the more severe. That's
especially the case if America's coming current-account
adjustment sparks the predictable consequences of higher interest
rates." Or, we may add, the dollar falls precipitously.
-"U.S. growth can be strong and the dollar can still fall," says
a currency trader in Bloomberg this morning. The Dollar fumbled
its way to its fourth consecutive historic low against the euro
yesterday. During intra-day trading in London the dollar fell to
$1.21... closing the day in New York at $1.20. A bevy of Forex
traders interviewed by Bloomberg.com said they're expecting the
dollar to go as low as $1.24 over the next few months.
- With the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, the central
bankers of all the G7 nations who met in October in Dubai, have
sung in key."The finance ministers and central bank chiefs of
the G7 and EU 'official approval' of the devaluation of the U.S.
dollar," says private banker Thomas Fischer writing in The
Sovereign Individual, a monthly communiqué from the Sovereign
Society,"now seems confirmed."
-"All G7 nations now officially acknowledge the need for a
weaker dollar. The G7 has called for an end to targeted
devaluations by Japan and to the rigid exchange rate system in
China. In addition, Wim Duisenberg, head of the European central
bank, now speaks of the need for a 'multi-faceted approach' to
address global fiscal imbalances. Currency traders interpret this
statement as a disguised pronouncement that the euro may climb
further against the U.S. dollar.
-"One way to profit from currency fluctuations," suggests
Fischer,"is to borrow funds in a currency that is falling and
invest the proceeds in an appreciating currency. This strategy is
often referred to as a 'multi-currency sandwich.' Current
conditions in the currency markets make such trades attractive.
-"Overseas private banks commonly lend money in a choice of
currencies to clients who have assets held by the bank. You can
leverage your deposit depending on the securities you purchase.
You benefit from the difference between the higher returns on the
leveraged investment and the lower cost of borrowing. Switching
between currencies and securities can occur with a single
telephone call and you can exit from the program whenever you
wish."
--------------
Bill Bonner, back in London...
*** Readers who are getting tired of our 'Dollar is Doomed'
discussion may want to skip this little note.
"Nice growth, shame about the currency," says the Financial
Times. For while the U.S. economy has grown in dollar terms,
Americans have gotten poorer in terms of what their currency will
buy on the open, world market. So far, the decline of the
greenback has barely been noticed. There has been no stampede out
of dollars. The U.S. is still managing to fund its twin
$500-billion deficits without significantly increasing interest
rates. American consumers have noticed little price inflation of
imported goods. Only those of us who live overseas - who have
seen our purchasing power cut by 50% in the last 18 months - have
cause for complaint; and who cares about us?
Surveying press reports, it appears that the average macro
analyst expects the dollar to continue to fall... say by another
20% or so. Dr. Richebächer, our favorite and most virulent dollar
critic, predicts it will plummet by half its value.
A brutal collapse of the dollar is"in nobody's interest," the
journalists point out. But being the worrywarts we are, we can't
help but note that WWI wasn't in anyone's interest, either. Nor
was the Great Depression. Nor is rap music or 'modern' art, for
that matter. Still, nasty stuff happens.
*** What kind of a cynic would not love this wonderfully mad
world? The Chinese work around the clock... save their money...
and then lend it to rich spendthrifts who cannot possibly pay it
back. The Americans take the money, mortgage their houses... and
their government... and their children's solvency... to buy
gee-gaws and gadgets that they don't need from the Chinese, even
stomping on old ladies in their rush to load up on bargains at
Wal-Mart. The Chinese then build more factories and hire more
workers to create more products for the people who couldn't pay
for the last products they sold... while the Americans, noticing
only the rate of spending and borrowing, think they are
'recovering'... getting rich again, without actually saving any
money. Meanwhile, the currency in which all these transactions
take place loses its value, day after day.
*** Rumor has it that two of the world's richest and shrewdest
investors - George Soros and Warren Buffett - are selling the
dollar short."Find the trend whose premise is false and bet
against it," is Soros's famous advice. Soros made a billion
dollars in a single day - about 10 years ago, as we recall -
betting against the British pound. At the time, the British
government was assuring the world that that pound would not fall.
Soros kept his mouth shut and held his short positions. Suddenly,
the pound gave way and Soros was a richer man.
Could the dollar give way suddenly, too? There is not much to
stop it. Foreigners hold $9 trillion of U.S. dollar positions.
Each day they lose millions of dollars. They must be getting
tired of it. Even central bankers get tired of losing money,
eventually. Would it be so surprising if they suddenly rushed to
the exits and made Soros a richer man still?
*** Those readers still with faith in science and the perfection
of man by rational thinking may find these items from the English
press interesting: First, a"holy man" from India says he has
neither eaten nor drunk for 70 years. Medical science took his
claim as a challenge and put him in a sealed hospital room for 11
days under constant surveillance, reports The Times of London. To
their amazement, the man neither ate nor drank... yet still
seemed to be in perfect health. No explanation was offered by
science, but the holy man said that he had been visited by
spirits as a child and given the gift.
Balanced against this apparent affront to science was another
article from Germany detailing an excess of rationalism. A man
apparently went onto the Internet to a site specializing in
cannibalism and offered himself up as a meal. His offer was
accepted. According to the report, he was slaughtered, cut up and
eaten by another German. The Polizei are looking in to it.
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The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: With the bubble's excesses still
unmitigated - and with even more hot air billowing into the
balloon - the job left undone by the 2001 'recession' becomes
more formidable by the minute. This DR Classique, originally
published on 14 March 2002, inspired themes in Chapter 8 of
Financial Reckoning Day.
THE RECESSION-THAT-WASN'T
By Bill Bonner
Phony boom, phony recession... what next? A phony recovery! What
a strange recession. It was like a zebra - but without the
stripes. And only one leg... on which he seems to hop...
underwater...
Recessions typically correct attitudes and asset prices - and
repair balance sheets. Debts are written off or paid down while
savings rates mount.
But none of that happened. Stocks are higher than ever.
Businesses are more heavily in debt than last year. Savings rates
are pathetic. And the consumer?
"Emboldened by low interest rates, board discounting and ready
cash from their mortgage refinancings, consumers spent through
the recession as if they were flush," says a TIME article on the
subject."Now they are in debt and won't be able to pick up the
spending pace much in 2002."
How can you have a recovery without a boost in spending? And what
would happen if consumers actually slowed spending instead?
"Equity market strategists are relying on U.S. consumers to
maintain their strong demand for goods so that manufacturers can
increase production and earnings," writes Hugh Whelan."Better
corporate earnings, especially if associated with high
productivity growth, allow robust wage
increases, which then feed back into more consumption. It will be
something of a miracle, though, if this rosy scenario pans out...
the consumer has been the beneficiary of several one-time
occurrences: energy price declines, low interest rates, tax
refunds and last year's tax rebate."
Miracles do happen. But our advice, gentle reader, is to play the
odds.
The one thing that the 'recession' did do - and do impressively -
was lower corporate profits. But thanks to new productivity, we
are told, corporate profits are going to come back - justifying
share prices and boosting the economy. Consumers may be in no
position to increase spending, say the bulls, but businesses can
increase capital investment and profits and lead the economy into
another boom.
And so, today's important question: What happens next? Do profits
shoot up - making the investors and economists feel like geniuses
again? Or, does a real recession sneak into the patsies' assets,
like a Democrat into the public treasury?
The entire economics profession and almost every investor in the
world seem to have crowded into one side of this trade. We will
take the other.
Will the recovery be sharp and robust? Or will it be soft and
easy-going? No other possibility seems to have occurred to the
pundits on CNBC...
But what if there were no real recovery at all? You are reminded,
dear reader, that we have no crystal ball... nor has God
whispered the answer in our ear. But, as a matter of principle,
markets often give investors what they least expect and most
deserve.
Readers will also recollect that getting rich is neither as
simple nor as easy as some might think. If lower interest rates
could really make people wealthy, why not lower them to zero tout
de suite? And why would Japan - with its zero-rate policy for
nearly five years - not be the richest nation in the world?
Nor is the money supply itself the magic ingredient. If
introducing more currency into an economy could make it rich,
Argentina would have been fabulously wealthy in the late '80s,
instead of at the edge or ruin.
No, it is not that easy. Like everything else worth getting in
life, getting rich requires giving something up. Even love
requires an investment... and one gets a kiss by giving one. And
for the faithful... Jesus could not have risen from the dead had
he not been crucified. Every bit of human progress requires some
sacrifice. Could it be any different for an economy?
To achieve wealth, one needs to set aside assets and invest them
for a return in the future. Seems simple enough. But in the New
Economy of the late '90s, investors came to believe that they
could have the gain without the pain. And consumers - the patsies
of the new economy - believed they could spend more and more
money they didn't have. The central bankers lured them to their
ruin, telling them that spending was the 'patriotic' thing to
do!
But instead of investing in productive new plants, equipment and
technology, businesses switched their attention to raising share
prices. Mergers, acquisitions, share buybacks and employee stock
options were all the rage.
Most people think that huge amounts of money were invested in new
Information Technology, which produced a glut of capacity. This
is not true. Small amounts were invested - which were then
magnified by the number crunchers using their 'hedonic'
amplifiers. Information technology does not require a lot of
capital investment. Then again, it produces little in extra
profit.
After pretending to invest big money in the new technology, the
number crunchers in the private sector then pretended that the
investments were profitable. More reckless than most, Enron's
accounts show to what extent the pretenders would go.
But you can't produce real profits without making real
investments. That is why profits have fallen so sharply - so
little was invested to produce them. And that is why profits are
not likely to rise quickly or easily. First, businesses need real
savings - ones that they can invest in real projects that might
make people richer. Then, consumers have to reduce their debts so
they can afford to buy them. All this takes time - maybe a decade
or more.
A society that invests heavily and carefully in new plants,
equipment, technology, training and research is a society that
gets richer. It can produce more of the things in which wealth is
measured. A society that consumes its capital instead... gets
poorer. And sooner or later realizes it.
Your editor,
Bill Bonner
|
-->Der Wahnsinn ist zurückgekehrt
von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner
Was für eine Freude! Er ist wieder da! Der Wahnsinn... der pure,
gierige Wahnsinn!
Es hatte so viel Spaß gemacht, sich über die"Neue Ära" lächerlich zu
machen... über das Informationszeitalter... die Spekulationsblase
bei Internet-Aktien... die Friedensdividende... das Ende der
Geschichte... und den"neuen, digitalen Menschen".
Und dann kam der Bärenmarkt der Jahre 2000 bis 2002... plötzlich
schienen die Leute wieder nüchtern zu werden. Für einen Moment lang
sah es so aus, als ob sie ihren Schnaps-Schrank abschließen würden.
Dann begannen die Politiker zu trinken. Aber die Politiker sind
gemeine Trinker. Der Wahnsinn, über den man sich am Aktienmarkt so
amüsieren konnte, hatte hier eine andere Kategorie. Der"Clash of
Civilizations"... das"Nation Building"... das Bringen des Geschenks
der Demokratie zu den Wüstenstämmen - diese Unterhaltung war nicht
weniger verrückt als die"Neue Ära", aber manchmal war es nicht so
witzig. Denn das Drehbuch war eher das einer Tragödie als das einer
Komödie.
Ich lache, wenn ich sehe, wie große Betrüger scheitern... und ich
lache auch laut, wenn überteuerte Neuemissionen schließlich
explodieren... und ich schmunzle sogar dann, wenn die Kleinanleger
das bekommen, was sie verdienen. Aber anders ist es bei der Politik.
Ich habe keine Freude an Leichen. Und in den Särgen, die aus
Kriegsschauplätzen nach Hause gebracht werden, scheinen niemals die
richtigen Körper zu liegen. Das ist das Problem mit dem Krieg,
liebe(r) Leser(in). Die Leichen sind die von den armen Schluckern, die
den Botengang auf sich nehmen mussten... aber die Leute, die sie
geschickt haben, sterben nicht an ihren Entscheidungen. Sie müssen sie
nicht am eigenen Leib spüren.
Aber jetzt bin ich froh, dass der Wahnsinn wieder da ist, wo er
hingehört - nämlich an die Wall Street.
Die"Rückkehr der Spekulationsblase", so nennt das die MoneyWeek aus
London. Der Nasdaq 100 ist in den letzten 12 Monaten um mehr als 70 %
gestiegen. Jetzt hat er ein durchschnittliches KGV von - halten Sie
sich fest -97. Yahoo hat ein KGV von 112, Amazon eins von 93.
Das sind nicht nur sehr optimistische Zahlen, so zitiert MoneyWeek ein
paar Analysten, sondern"sie sind halluzinatorisch... irgendwie
erinnert diese Rally an die Fortsetzung eines Films, von dem man
hoffte, ihn nie wieder zu sehen."
Was könnte diese hohen Kurse rechtfertigen? Nun, spektakuläres
Wachstum. Aber eine Umfrage von Goldman Sachs"zeigt, dass die
Unternehmen ihre Technologieausgaben im nächsten Jahr nur um moderate
1,3 % erhöhen wollen", so MoneyWeek weiter.
Es gibt wieder Neuemissionen. Und auch Daytrading.
Jetzt zu Dir, Addison, mit mehr News:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Donnerstag, 4. Dezember 2003
Fester Euro - schwacher Dollar
von unserem Korrespondenten Addison Wiggin in Paris
Stimmt das? Oder ist das nur Propaganda, wegen des Wahljahres in den
USA?
Der ISM-Index ist auf 62,8 Punkte gestiegen... den höchsten Wert seit
2 Jahren. Der Anstieg war der fünfte Monat in Folge, bei dem der Index
über der Marke von 50 Punkten notierte. Das zeigt einen eher
expandierenden als zurückgehenden Output der Industrie an.
"Die Aktivität erholt sich von einem unglaublich niedrigen Niveau
aus", so Lara Rhame, Volkswirtin bei Brown Brothers Harriman gegenüber
Bloomberg."Dieser Sektor wird weiterhin sehr vorsichtig sein, was das
Einstellen von neuen Angestellten angeht." Die Fabriken in den USA
haben 39 Monate in Folge Leute entlassen, was die Gesamtzahl der im
produzierenden Sektor Beschäftigten auf den niedrigsten Stand seit
1958 gesenkt hat. Die nächsten Zahlen zum US-Arbeitsmarkt wird es am
kommenden Freitag geben, und sie werden sicher große Beachtung finden.
"Die US-Produktivität steht auf dem höchsten Niveau seit 20 Jahren",
berichtet CBSMarketWatch.
"Die neu gefundene amerikanische zyklische Kraft ist schwerlich ein
Zufall", schreibt Stephen Roach von Morgan Stanley."Washington hat
aus den frühen 1990ern wichtige Lektionen gelernt. Vor 8 Jahren hieß
es 'So ist die Wirtschaft nun mal, dumm'. Dieses Jahr heißt es: 'So
ist die Politik nun mal, dumm.' Tief in unseren Herzen wissen wir
alle, dass es unmöglich ist, die Zukunft vorauszusagen. Und es fordert
die Vorstellungskraft heraus, ein Makro-Szenario zu entwickeln, dass
auf dem Zusammenspielen von politischen und wirtschaftlichen Zyklen
beruht."
In einem Bericht der Haushaltsabteilung des US-Kongresses steht, dass
ungefähr die Hälfte der geburtenstarken Generation der"Baby Boomer"
(die bald ins Ruhestandsalter kommt) nicht genug Ersparnisse hat, um
ihren derzeitigen Lebensstandard im Ruhestand halten zu können.
"Haushalte mit unzureichenden Ersparnissen werden mit 19 Jahren
Ausgaben konfrontiert werden, für die sie nicht zahlen können",
berichtet die LA Times. Was noch störender daran ist? Nun, diese
Schlussfolgerung wurde aus Studien gezogen, die Daten aus dem Jahr
2000 berücksichtigen. Und da gab es noch einen"Boom".
In den 1990ern"schufen die Baby Boomer die Wirtschaft nach ihrem
eigenen Bild neu. Die Wirtschaft, die einst hohe Ersparnisse, hohe
Investitionen und hohe Wertschöpfung vorweisen konnte, änderte sich.
Von der Produktion, was die Baby Boomer langfristig brauchten, ging es
hin zur Produktion von den Gütern, die sie kurzfristig brauchten." Das
habe ich zusammen mit Bill Bonner in unserem neuen Buch geschrieben.
Zurück zu Stephen Roach (siehe oben), er schreibt:"Die kaum
steigenden Einkommen dieser Erholung ohne neue Jobs sind ein ernsteres
Problem als während der Erholung der frühen 1990er. Das erhöht nur die
amerikanische Abhängigkeit von auf Reichtum basierender,
Schuldenintensiver Unterstützung der Gesamtnachfrage."
Ein Devisenhändler sagte gestern Morgen bei Bloomberg:"Das
US-Wirtschaftswachstum kann stark sein, und der Dollar kann trotzdem
fallen." Der Dollar ist ja weiter gefallen, er schwankt derzeit
zwischen 1,20 und 1,21. Eine Gruppe von Devisenhändlern, die von
Bloomberg.com befragt wurden, rechnet damit, dass der Dollar gegenüber
dem Euro in den nächsten Monaten auf 1,24 fallen wird.
"Die Finanzminister und Zentralbankvorsitzenden der G7 und der EU
hießen die Abwertung des Dollar (beim letzten G7 Treffen in Dubai)
offiziell gut, das scheint jetzt bestätigt", so der Banker Thomas
Fischer.
Alle G7-Staaten erkennen die Notwendigkeit eines niedrigeren
Dollarkurses jetzt offiziell an. Die G7 haben ein Ende der gewollten
Abwertungen der japanischen Währung gefordert, und ein Ende des fixen
Wechselkurses in China. Devisenhändler haben das und ein Statement von
Wim Duisenberg so interpretiert, dass der Euro gegenüber dem Dollar
noch weiter steigen könnte.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Donnerstag, 4. Dezember 2003
70 Jahre ohne Essen Ãœberleben?
von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner, derzeit in London
*** Es gehen Gerüchte um, dass zwei der reichsten und scharfsinnigsten
Investoren der Welt - George Soros und Warren Buffett - auf einen
fallenden Dollar setzen."Finde den Trend, der auf falschen Annahmen
beruht, und setze gegen ihn", so der berühmte Rat von Soros. Damit
machte er an einem einzigen Tag eine Milliarde Dollar. Das war vor
ungefähr 10 Jahren, ich erinnere mich noch daran, als er gegen das
britische Pfund setze. Damals versicherte die britische Regierung der
Welt, dass das Pfund nicht fallen würde. Soros hielt seinen Mund und
ging seine Positionen ein. Plötzlich sackte das Pfund ab und Soros war
ein reicher Mann.
Könnte auch der Dollar plötzlich absacken? Es gibt nicht viel, was ihn
aufhalten könnte. Die Ausländer halten US-Dollar oder
US-Vermögensanlagen in Dollar im Volumen von 9 Billionen Dollar. Die
laufenden Kursverluste des Dollar müssen ihnen doch irgendwann einmal
zuviel werden. Selbst Zentralbankern wird es irgendwann zuviel, wenn
sie laufend Geld verlieren. Wäre es so überraschend, wenn diese Leute
plötzlich zu den Ausgängen rennen würden (um ihre Dollar loszuwerden),
und Soros zu einem noch reicheren Mann machen würden?
*** Diejenigen Leser(innen), die immer noch an die Wissenschaft und
die Perfektion des Menschen durch rationales Denken glauben, mögen
diesen Beitrag aus der englischen Presse interessant finden: Zunächst
einmal sagt ein"heiliger Mann" aus Indien, dass er seit 70 Jahren
weder gegessen noch getrunken hat. Mediziner nahmen das als
Herausforderung, und sie steckten ihn für 11 Tage unter konstanter
Beobachtung in ein abgeschlossenes Krankenhauszimmer, so die Times of
London. Zu ihrer Überraschung aß und trank der Mann überhaupt
nichts... und schien dennoch bei perfekter Gesundheit zu sein. Die
Wissenschaft konnte das nicht erklären, aber der heilige Mann sagte,
dass er als Kind von Geistern besucht worden sei, die ihm diese Gabe
übergeben hätten.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Donnerstag, 4. Dezember 2003
Im Interesse von niemandem
von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner
*** Leser(innen), denen meine"Der Dollar ist zum Untergang
verurteilt"-Artikel langsam zu viel werden, möchte ich auf einen
Artikel in der Financial Times verweisen.
"Nettes Wachstum, Schande auf die Währung", schreibt dieses Blatt über
die USA. Denn während die US-Wirtschaft gemessen in Dollar gewachsen
ist, sind die Amerikaner ärmer geworden, gemessen an dem, was ihre
Währung auf dem offenen Weltmarkt wert ist. Bis jetzt haben sie den
Rückgang des Dollarkurses kaum wahrgenommen. Die USA können ihre
beiden Defizite (Haushaltsdefizit und Handelsbilanzdefizit) im Volumen
von jeweils rund 500 Milliarden Dollar ohne signifikant steigende
Zinssätze weiter managen. Die amerikanischen Konsumenten müssen kaum
unter Preissteigerungen für importierte Güter leiden. Nur die
Amerikaner, die in Ãœbersee leben, merken, dass ihre Kaufkraft deutlich
gefallen ist. Aber wer kümmert sich schon um die?
Wenn ich mir die Presse ansehe, dann sieht es so aus, dass der
durchschnittliche Makro-Analyst damit rechnet, dass der Dollar weiter
fallen wird... um weiter 20 % oder so. Dr. Richebächer, der
gelegentlich hier im Investor's Daily Gastbeiträge schreibt und ein
überzeugter Kritiker des Dollar ist, meint, dass sich der Dollarkurs
halbieren wird.
Ein brutaler Kollaps des Dollar sei"im Interesse von niemandem", so
betonen die Journalisten. Aber ich bemerke, dass auch der Erste
Weltkrieg"im Interesse von niemandem" war. Und auch nicht die
Weltwirtschaftskrise. Und auch nicht Rap-Musik oder"moderne" Kunst.
Und dennoch gesehen hässliche Dinge.
*** Welcher Zyniker würde diese wunderbar verrückte Welt nicht lieben?
Die Chinesen arbeiten rund um die Uhr... sie sparen ihr Geld... und
dann leihen sie es reichen Konsumanhängern, die es wahrscheinlich
nicht zurückzahlen werden. Die Amerikaner nehmen das Geld, sie erhöhen
ihre Hypotheken... um neue Waren, die sie nicht brauchen, von den
Chinesen zu kaufen. Dabei rennen sie sogar alte Frauen, die vor dem
Wal-Mart warten, über den Haufen (ich hatte gestern hier im Investor's
Daily darüber berichtet). Die Chinesen bauen dann mehr Fabriken und
sie stellen mehr Leute ein, um mehr Produkte für die Leute
herzustellen, die noch nicht einmal für die letzte Lieferung bezahlen
konnten. Während die Amerikaner, die nur auf Geld leihen und Geld
ausgeben achten, denken, dass sie sich"erholen"... dass sie wieder
reich werden, ohne irgendetwas zu sparen. Währenddessen verliert die
Währung, in der diese Transaktionen stattfinden, Tag für Tag an Wert.
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