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Monday, December 08, 2003, 1:40:00 PM EST

The Paper Chase

Author: Jim Sinclair





There is hardly more important news for the Gold Community today than the recently announced figures that show overseas entities are no longer major buyers of US Treasury paper.



Over the weekend, more fuel was added to this bonfire after a report by Reuters said the pace of withdrawals from deposit accounts in the United States by OPEC countries is accelerating significantly.

OPEC has ceased to fund the spending that has fostered the economic recovery in the US and Asia as a whole is increasingly unwilling to finance our consumer base.

The seriousness of the most recent report concerning withdrawals shows that the financing of the US recovery - and therefore the impetus to world economic recovery - has shifted into reverse as OPEC repatriates record funds from the US and therefore as an adjunct from the US dollar.

This is seriously bad news for an economic recovery in the US which is largely a product of two increasingly expensive wars that have produced huge amounts of fiscal stimulation and monetary super-charging to finance them. This is awful news for the bond market and the value of the US dollar.

BIS (Bank for International Settlements) data shows that Saudi Arabia has removed 12.2 billion US dollars in the latest report as of the second quarter of 2003. Total draw-downs were 13.6 billion US dollars versus 5.2 bullion US dollars in the first quarter. This means that the water is flowing over the dam and soon there will be a breach with every penny held in the US by countries with large Islamic populations flooding out. You don’t want to be downstream from an event like this.

Why is this happening?

1/ Patriot Act 2, which has firm rationale for its existence in an emergency, has by the nature of the beast thrown out the baby with the bath water. Patriot 2 has removed the protection of “Due Process of Law” from deposits made in the US - especially by Islamic entities and foreigners. Would you send money to Switzerland if it had the right to seize your deposits after deeming you had some connection - however remote - to an organization, individual, political party, group or country that had any connection to terrorism and its purveyors? Without due process of law, they could seize your deposits without having to provide any proof of your complicity. You could be the Pope, The Avatar or Mother Theresa and you would not send money there. What makes it any different for countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India or China keeping money in the US? It is all going to leave and the floodgates have only started to open.

2/ There is a quiet war under way in Yemen and Saudi Arabia that’s being fought by US special forces, the CIA - and I am told FBI operatives - along with local troops. The Saudi Royal Family is hiding in their palaces and trying to buy their way out of harm’s way. Certain Royal palaces have taken direct rocket hits.

3/ Do you think that Saudi money or any Islamic Middle Eastern money is going to stay in the US under these circumstances? Not for a minute.

Conclusion:

Add to this the Triple Deficits and you have a price objective at.60 to.62 for the US dollar. I hope for the sake of the economic, social and political well being of the world, that gold goes no higher than $529.

If the gold market reflects itself as the sole world currency and balances the out-of-balance US balance sheet by appreciating to $1,650 to $1,700 then no one - not even the rich gold owner - will enjoy the world around him.

No manipulating entity can stop gold from doing what it pleases as the world market for gold is growing by leaps and bounds, most certainly in China.

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Die gezählte 3 ist allerdings ein Witz. Eine Unverschämtheit, sowas unter dem Namen Elliott zu veröffentlichen. Was nicht heißt, dass die Prognose nicht stimmen kann, aber dann bitteschön mit einer anderen Begründung.

Und nicht eine erfundene Sinclair-Elliott-3.

<ul> ~ Quelle</ul>

-->http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

-->>http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

Das ist doch der arme Trottel der seine Goldminenaktien noch schnell verkauft hatte, bevor der HUI 100 Punkte zulegte. Ob man seine positive Einschätzung jetzt als ein Verkaufssignal werten muss weiss ich allerdings auch nicht...[img][/img]
gruss
cg

-->sondern von einem norwegischen Elliott-Freak, der seine Seite liest.

Sinclair hält nix von Elliott, Prechter und Co hat er schon oft genug verspottet.

Wenn allerdings einer daher kommt, der EW in seinem Sinne interpretiert, dann nutzt er das, um EW-gläubige Leser auf die Long-Seite zu ziehen.

Für ihn ist der Goldmarkt Krieg( gegen die FED und die COT), dessen sollte man sich bewusst sein; darum ist ihm logischerweise auch jedes Mittel recht.
Und natürlich, dass man ein Bauer in seinem Spiel ist, wenn man ihm folgt.

-->>sondern von einem norwegischen Elliott-Freak, der seine Seite liest.
>Sinclair hält nix von Elliott, Prechter und Co hat er schon oft genug verspottet.
>Wenn allerdings einer daher kommt, der EW in seinem Sinne interpretiert, dann nutzt er das, um EW-gläubige Leser auf die Long-Seite zu ziehen.
>Für ihn ist der Goldmarkt Krieg( gegen die FED und die COT), dessen sollte man sich bewusst sein; darum ist ihm logischerweise auch jedes Mittel recht.
>Und natürlich, dass man ein Bauer in seinem Spiel ist, wenn man ihm folgt.

-->am lautesten schreit, ist es Zeit, Gold zu shorten. Lese seine Site gerne, er ist einfach süss.

g8 cw