-->The Currency Chain Gang

The Daily Reckoning

London, England

Monday, 12 January 2004


-----------------------

*** Erring on the side of recklessness... eliminating full-
time employees...

*** Wages down... what will the lumpen spend? The China
Bubble...

*** Fan mail... Let them eat democrats! And more!

-----------------------

Erring on the side of recklessness.

Who can know how long this stock market rally will last? Or
whether employment will really pick up or not? Or, when the
Chinese will stop lending?

But Americans have decided to go ahead - as if everything
will turn out all right, no matter what. The thought
occurred to us when reading the latest employment reports.

It is still a"jobless recovery" as near as we can
figure... or even a jobless non-recovery. We suspect it will
soon be a jobless bust... but hold that thought for a
minute; today we're not making predictions, we're merely
marveling at the extraordinary optimism of American
investors.

While investors are optimistic to the point of
recklessness... people who actually know something tend to
be more cautious. While the little guys buy appalling
stocks at outrageous prices, the real pros - Soros,
Buffett, Templeton, Rogers, Grantham et al - head for the
exits. And now we find our friend Marc Faber saying that
business managers are currently 4 times as likely to sell
their stock as buy it.

And when managers hire new employees, again they show
timidity, not temerity; they are more likely than ever
before to pick up 'temporary' workers, rather than full-
time ones.

Faber quotes Jose Rasco of Merrill Lynch:

"... The temporary worker is the marginal worker and is the
first in the door. If demand remains strong, then companies
can hire those workers on a full-time basis. If that's the
case, then maybe we will see a traditional recovery led by
job creation and income generation. Or, conversely, the
rise in temporary workers could be a sign that employers
are beginning to apply accounting principles to human
resource departments. Instead of hiring someone on a full-
time basis, corporations may be moving their labor risks
from being a fixed cost to a variable cost. Rather than
bringing someone on board and paying them a full-time
salary and benefits, companies can keep them as temp/flex
workers whose workload can be adjusted with the vagaries in
demand. With companies lacking pricing power, and input
prices rising... what can a company do to expand margins?
The answer is obvious. The easiest way to boost corporate
profitability is by lowering its biggest fixed cost:
labor!"

You may be shocked to discover this, dear reader: in
America's consumption-led economy, real wages are actually
going down. The rush of money into stocks over the last 15
months has not come from increased earnings... but from
increased debt. Lower rates encouraged consumers to re-
mortgage their homes. Mortgage debt rose... but so did other
consumer debt.

Where then did the money go?

"... It seems that only a small part of it was spent,"
concludes economist Gerard Minack."Yes, the household
sector is still running a cash flow deficit (spending more
on consumer and capital items than it receives in cash
flow), so the shortfall had to be financed. That cash
shortfall was $113 billion in the year to June. But that is
relatively small compared to the increase in borrowing. As
it turns out, it seems that much of the Fed-facilitated
borrowing has gone into Wall Street."

The household sector became the biggest buyer of stocks in
the first half of last year - buying $416 billion of them,
despite the fact that real incomes were falling.

Real wages have gone down over the last 10 years. But the
cost of labor still goes up - because health insurance
premiums and other costs have been rising at double-digit
rates.

This is very bad news for the American proletariat. Even
though he gets less money, his employer is still under
pressure to get rid of him!

And here we have another little wrinkle in the fabric of
modern, degenerate American capitalism. Corporate managers
have no loyalty, neither to their shareholders nor to their
workers. They pay themselves extravagantly, sell their own
stocks short... and treat employees like inventory. The idea
seems to be to cut costs on everything but themselves... to
hire the cheapest employees possible, just in time, in
order to meet short-term objectives.

Nobody holds anything in stock anymore. No excess food in
the pantry. No excess products on the shelves... no excess
money in the bank, no excess employees on the payroll.
Inventory is an expense item. Erring on the side of
recklessness, Americans live hand to mouth... paycheck to
paycheck... as if nothing will ever go wrong.

"NO ONE is making long-term investments," writes Hirschel
Abelson after surveying the dozens of companies in which
his fund invests. Neither in equipment, nor in people. Of
course, this is no way to build an economy or make people
rich. In the modern, globalized economy, if an American is
to continue earning 10 times as much as a Indian, he has to
produce 10 times as much. Which means, the society in which
he lives has to invest massive amounts of money in new
equipment and training. Instead, corporate America seems to
care only about cutting expenses to make the next quarter's
numbers... and its own stock options.

The approach is not only reckless... it is hopeless.

"... We are at the point where peak efficiency has begun to
take hold and sources for further cost-reduction are
becoming harder to recognize," Abelson continues.

Eventually, business managers run out of costs to cut. Then
what?

Over to Addison for the news:

------------

Addison Wiggin in Paris...

- Just as we were getting used to bashing Paul O'Neill for
toeing the party line, the man up and got himself fired for
failing to do so. Now we're dangerously close to becoming
fans... if not for his views, then certainly for his
gumption.

- Then again, Mr. O'Neill could just be trying to sell
copies of his new tell-all book,"The Price Of Loyalty." In
any case, O'Neill told viewers of the CBS rag 60 Minutes
last night that removing Saddam Hussein was a top priority
of Bush the younger upon taking possession of the White
House. O'Neill saw no convincing evidence of Weapons of
Mass Destruction during his tenure. Furthermore, he was
told by the Vice President that Reagan proved that
"deficits don't matter."

- What a relief it must be for the president to have the
docile Mr. Snow as a Treasury Secretary instead, huh? In
contrast to turncoat O'Neill, Snow is still among the
faithful - even going so far as to cheer on the president's
audacious new space plan. After all, every president worth
his salt needs a space plan. Why not a ridiculous and
completely insane one? Why Snow, rather than a NASA
official, was talking up the plan to build a colony on the
Moon and send Americans to Mars remains a bit of a mystery,
however.

- But then again, Snow is a"can do" optimist. Exactly the
guy Bush needs to get the job done. He's just as confident
the U.S. can put a man on Mars and cut the deficit in half
while doing it... as he is that they can jumpstart consumer
capitalism in the deserts of Iraq... that he talk the
Chinese out of their desire to hollow out the American
manufacturing sector and sell dirt-cheap gee-gaws... and
that the American consumer, going bankrupt at an historic
pace, will miraculously provide the necessary 'stimulus' to
end the 'jobless' part of the Great Jobless Recovery of
2003. Ho hum... all in a day's work.

- We here at the Daily Reckoning are fairly confident that
as long as John Snow says these things in public, he will
be able to keep his office at the Treasury. Heck, even if
the plan doesn't work 100%... even if the rest of it goes
south... Snow will at least find himself on the short list
for a luxury suite on the moon, far, far away from the toil
and trouble that will undoubtedly come from cleaning up the
mess they leave down here on the earth.

- Meanwhile, back to reality. Friday's new job numbers make
the mission to Mars the more plausible of Mr. Snow's two
speech subjects. Far from the 200,000 new jobs he was
expecting in December, what Snow got instead was the
discount version of the report. An anemic 1,000 new jobs
were created in December. In fact, only 144,000 jobs were
created in the whole of the fourth quarter."That bad piece
of jobs data makes me wonder," wrote Everbank's Chuck
Butler this morning,"how long the 'exceptionally strong'
labor productivity story can continue."

-"How long" has become a familiar refrain around these
parts. We ask the question so often, our wives have begun
ask tune in with us.

- In the face of continued job weakness, we lamented on
Friday (although admittedly a bit confused by reports on
the subject), we noted that personal debt is being relied
upon by as diverse organizations as the American Banking
Association and the American Bankruptcy Institute to bring
the economy back from the brink of recession.

- How long can that trend continue? Well here's a
disturbing and tiresome clue from our friend John Mauldin:
"Consumer short-term debt... is approaching a historical
turning point. Having risen at an abnormally fast rate for
ten years, it must soon adjust itself to the nation's
capacity for going into hock... which is not limitless.
Whether the rate of growth in consumer debt will slow down
is no longer the question... it must slow down."

- Surprise: That quote was taken from the March 1956 issue
of Fortune magazine. Other sources throughout the years
have made similar comments, which were all obviously wrong.
"How long?" Mauldin asks."My guess is [financial reckoning
day] will not be this year... there is still some room left
on the credit card."

- Perhaps reserving seats now for the next shuttle to Mars
is not such a bad idea.

-------------

Bill Bonner, back in England...

*** Why bother to stockpile labor? China has millions of
laborers:"Other Asian lands ran out of unemployed people
as they developed and had to shift to more sophisticated
output to accommodate increasingly expensive labor," writes
Gary Shilling.

"China has not. Almost half of its 320 million farmers are
not needed to work the land, by the reckoning of the
Ministry of Agriculture. There are around 80 million
redundant workers in government and government enterprises,
not to mention the 100 million squatting in the coastal
regions, looking for work, and also the soon-to-be-
employable youth - a quarter of the Chinese are under age
15. So China has 500 million potential new workers.

"How long could China maintain 8% annual economic growth
before exhausting this huge pool of unemployed? About 30
years, assuming 4% annual productivity growth - no great
feat for a developing country that can adopt modern
technology. Also, the growing Chinese middle class promises
strong domestic demand, which will reduce dependence on
exports and lead to greater imports. Maybe one day each of
those 1.3 billion Chinese will drink one can of Pepsi.

"But if you are awed by China's current and potential
power, think twice. Recall the awe over Japan during its
1980s bubble days. Remember how we were all going to be
sweeping up around Japanese computers? My contrarian
forecast in 1988 was that Japan's bubble was about to
break. I feel the same way now about China."

"... China's two recent growth engines are highly
vulnerable. First are exports. Official data show that from
1997 to 2001 exports averaged 21% of GDP but accounted for
48% of GDP growth. And most of those exports go directly or
indirectly to the U.S.. American consumers have ended their
20-year borrowing-and-spending binge and are embarking on a
saving spree... So the outlook for Chinese exports is
glum..."

*** We flatter ourselves with more fan mail:"I am an
active reader of the Daily Reckoning," begins one letter.
"Whenever I am getting too pleased with the upward movement
of the stock market and my 'greedy' inclinations, a dose of
your column puts some reality on the picture. As a daily
reader, I am quite clear on your point of view of the
current situation and the dire consequences you paint for
the future.

"Rather than repeating the same story on a daily basis, I
would ask that you occasionally present a constructive
investment strategy that could help me, a naïve investor,
increase the possibility of economic survival if your
prophecies come true. If the objective of your analysis is
to make me want to subscriber to the various newsletter
advertisements interspersed with your invective against the
system then I would be most disappointed."

***"Yup! Your critics are right!," says another."They
would have made a ton of money investing in the absolute
wreck of the market! Of course you told them to buy gold
(stocks coins and bullion) and instead of a ten-month run
they would have celebrated two anniversaries of undeserved
success by now. With a little thought they could have cake
walked from March 2000 until the present but that's another
story. You guys are what you say you are; a well run, easy-
to-read journal that costs nothing.

"Your contrarian view is the most powerful antidote to the
moronic positivism we get in the mainstream media. The
individual who wished you were more positive (06/01) and
wanted you to talk up alternate energy or some such thing
really needs to look more closely at himself and the world
he lives in. There are very real barriers preventing the
accomplishment of 'good' things in this world. You touch on
many of them in your work and there are many many more.
Your role (to me) is to shine a light on the intellectual
corruption and self interest that passes for reasoning
amongst the most powerful in our society. Please keep up
the good work. You are a true rarity."

*** Another do-gooder gone bad. That is what we make of
press accounts of Armin Meiwes' prosecution.

Poor Meiwes thought he had a solution to the problems of
poverty and overpopulation. He was no doubt discussing his
program with Bernard Brandes just before the two cut off
Brandes' most private part and ate it. Then, wouldn't you
know it, Brandes died, either as a result of blood loss
from the butchering or as a consequence of the fact that
Meiwes slit his throat. And now the British press has made
a big stink about it, branding Meiwes the 'Cannibal of
Rotenburg.' But Meiwes is not merely a pervert; he's an
activist.

"We could solve the problem of over-population and famine
at a stroke," said he, according to the testimony in The
Times of London."The third world is really ripe for
eating."

But wait, a fellow omnivore thought he saw a flaw in
Meiwes' utopia:"If we make cannibalism into the norm, then
everyone will start eating each other and there will be
nobody left."

"That's why I'm not keen on eating women," Meiwes replied.

It seemed never to have occurred to either of them
that... just perhaps... not everyone would want to be eaten.
Here at the Daily Reckoning, for example, we got through
all last week without anyone being eaten... or even
expressing a desire to be eaten. But of course, we're
contrarians.

---------------------

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The U.S. dollar and the
Chinese renminbi remain joined at the hip... but for how
long?


THE CURRENCY CHAIN GANG
By William Rees-Mogg

The boom on Wall Street in 2003 was not irrational, but it
could draw investors into a trap. The boom itself is a
recovery from the declines of the previous three years. The
market has not broken through its 1999 and 2000 highs, and
it is unlikely to do so in the coming months, though I
expect Wall Street to continue to be quite bullish through
the election in November.

The market has been reacting to the renewed growth in the
U.S. economy and the strong rise in corporate profits. In
the third quarter 2003, the U.S. economy grew at around 9%
annualized, an unexpected rate of growth for a mature
economy. In the same quarter, corporate profits rose by 30%
and broke through the $1 trillion barrier for the first
time.

I find in the last few weeks that I have regularly been
referring to"trillions." When I entered journalism, we
counted in"millions"; the inflation of the 1970s taught us
to think in"billions"; the 21st century is teaching us to
think in"trillions." I wonder who the first"trillionaire"
will be. So far as I know, no individual has yet reached
the $100 billion mark, though Bill Gates may have done so
at the top of the Internet boom.

I did not expect so strong a performance from the U.S.
economy, and I am still uncertain about the underlying
causes. We do, however, know that it was led by U.S.
consumption. It was not savings or exports that did it, nor
was it a higher inflow of foreign funds. Foreigners have
become nervous of the dollar. I am nervous of this boom in
consumption, since it has been financed by a boom in debt,
based on the huge borrowings from Japan and China. The
prosperity of the United States in 2003 has not been the
product of U.S. earnings but of borrowing the earnings of
Asian countries.

The world trade and currency relationships reflect this
tension, and have been following exactly the forecasts we
have been making. On this, your editors and I have the same
analysis. It is not an analysis of any single currency, of
the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound, or the renminbi,
but of the unsustainable relationships between them. We
also treat gold as another currency and use movements of
the gold price as a very significant indicator of the
underlying balance of the market. Gold has broken through
$400 per ounce and seems set to go much higher. Analysts
regard $500 as only the next step.

In the last month, our current forecasts have all been on
track. The dollar has continued to fall against all the
other currencies except the Chinese renminbi, which is tied
to it. This has largely corrected the overvaluation of the
dollar, but has not corrected the trade deficit of the
United States, which currently runs at $500 billion, or
half a trillion dollars. It has also produced an acute
undervaluation of the renminbi, which is reinforced by
China's extremely low labor costs.

The yen has risen closer to the 100 yen-to-the-dollar
relationship. In order to maintain export competitiveness,
the Japanese have continued to buy dollars on a massive
scale. The U.S. trade deficit with Japan is therefore
recirculated and used to finance the U.S. deficit.

Britain and Europe are on the receiving end of this
movement of the dollar. The euro has risen to its highest
level ever. The pound, which has a different trading
pattern to the euro, has fallen against the euro but risen
by more than 20% against the dollar. The result is that
European exports, which already had high costs, have ceased
to be competitive, particularly with the exports of Asia.

Germany is sometimes referred to as"the engine of Europe,"
but the German economy is sick and has fallen back to zero
growth. Germany is a manufacturing and exporting country,
and German manufacturers are not competitive in world
markets. In the whole Eurozone, youth unemployment is one-
sixth, a social disaster.

Even China is not free from problems. An undervalued
currency is obviously helpful as a way of undercutting
one's neighbors and promoting exports. China has tens of
millions of workers to introduce into its expanding modern
economy. But an undervalued currency introduces
inflationary pressures, and China is beginning to suffer
from them.

At some point, the renminbi will have to be revalued
against the dollar, or floated. Floating would be much the
better solution. The present situation, in which the dollar
and the renminbi are tied together, but all the other major
currencies are floating, is illogical and damaging for all
of them. President Abraham Lincoln said that one cannot
have"two nations - one slave and one free." It would be
equally true to say that the world cannot have two sets of
currencies, one floating and one fixed. That is
particularly true when the fixed currency is the most
competitive on Earth.

The dollar will not be able to settle down to a more stable
rate so long as it is fixed to the renminbi. Nor will the
euro return to a more competitive level. At present the
United States and China are like two fugitives from a chain
gang, tied together at the ankle. It may, however, be
difficult to cut off their fetters until the U.S.
presidential election is out of the way.


Regards,

William Rees-Mogg
for The Daily Reckoning

-->Kleinanleger sorgenlos - Profis suchen die Ausgänge

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Wer kann schon wissen, wie lange die aktuelle Rally am Aktienmarkt
noch dauern wird? Oder ob sich die Lage am US-Arbeitsmarkt verbessert
oder nicht? Oder wann die Chinesen damit aufhören, den USA Geld zu
leihen? Aber die Amerikaner haben sich dazu entschieden, nach vorne zu
gehen, so als ob alles gut ausgehen würde.

Die Erholung ist immer noch eine"jobless recovery", also eine
Wirtschaftserholung, in der keine neuen Arbeitsplätze geschaffen
werden. Vielleicht ist es sogar eine Nicht-Wirtschaftserholung ohne
neue Arbeitsplätze. Und ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass es bald ein
Abschwung ohne neue Arbeitsplätze sein wird. Aber Moment; heute will
ich keine Prognosen abgeben, sondern über den außergewöhnlichen
Optimismus der Amerikaner schreiben.

Während die Amerikaner halsbrecherisch optimistisch sind... tendieren
die Leute, die etwas wissen, dazu, vorsichtiger zu sein. Während die
kleinen Jungs Aktien zu lächerlich hohen Kursen kaufen, verkaufen die
wirklichen Profis - George Soros, Warren Buffett, Templeton und
andere. Und meine Freund Marc Faber sagt, dass die Unternehmensinsider
derzeit für jede gekaufte Aktie vier verkaufen. Und wenn Manager neue
Arbeiter einstellen, dann zeigen sie sich vorsichtig; sie stellen eher
Teilzeitkräfte als Vollzeitbeschäftigte ein.

In der amerikanischen konsumgeführten Wirtschaft fallen derzeit die
Reallöhne. Die riesigen Beträge, die in den letzten 15 Monaten an den
Aktienmarkt geströmt sind, sind nicht durch höhere Gewinne oder Löhne
zustande gekommen... sondern durch Schulden. Niedrigere Zinsen haben
die Konsumenten dazu ermuntert, die Hypotheken auf ihre Häuser zu
erhöhen. Die Hypothekenschulden nahmen zu... aber auch die anderen
Schulden der Konsumenten. Wo ging dieses Geld hin?

Die privaten Haushalte waren in der ersten Hälfte des letzten Jahres
der größte Käufer von Aktien - sie kauften für 416 Milliarden Dollar
Aktien, obwohl ihre realen Einkommen fielen.

Die Reallöhne sind in den letzten 10 Jahren gefallen. Aber die
Arbeitskosten steigen immer noch - weil die Kosten für die
Krankenversicherung und andere Dinge mit zweistelligen
Prozentzuwächsen wachsen. Das sind schlechte News für das
amerikanische Proletariat. Selbst wenn sie weniger Geld bekommen, so
haben sie dennoch das Risiko, dass sie entlassen werden!

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Dienstag, 13. Januar 2004

Ehemaliger US-Finanzminister plaudert aus dem Nähkästchen

von unserem Korrespondenten Addison Wiggin in Paris

Der ehemalige US-Finanzminister Paul O'Neill hat sich über seine
Amtszeit geäußert, und mitgeteilt, dass der Irakkrieg von George W.
Bush von Beginn seiner Amtszeit an geplant war. Natürlich könnte Mr.
O'Neill auch nur versuchen, sein neues Buch"The Price of Loyalty"
besser zu verkaufen... aber ich bin gefährlich nahe dran, ein Fan von
ihm zu werden. Wenn auch nicht wegen seiner Ansichten, so wegen seines
Muts und seiner Intelligenz.

Außerdem sagt O'Neill, dass ihm auf seine Einwände wegen des hohen
Haushaltsdefizits vom Vizepräsidenten gesagt worden war:"Defizite
sind egal".

Was für eine Erleichterung für den Präsidenten muss es da sein, dass
er jetzt den unterwürfigen Mr. Snow als Finanzminister hat, oder?
Anders als O'Neill bejubelt Snow sogar die neuen Mars-Pläne - dabei
ist er ein Finanzminister, der schon jetzt mit einem Haushaltsdefizit
von voraussichtlich 500 Milliarden Dollar zu kämpfen haben wird! Aber
jeder richtige Präsident muss Raumfahrtspläne haben. Warum dann nicht
einen lächerlichen und komplett verrückten Plan? Warum allerdings der
US-Finanzminister Snow über die Mars-Pläne sprach und kein Offizieller
von der NASA, das blieb mir trotzdem ein Rätsel.

Snow ist ein Optimist. Er denkt, dass er den Konsumentenkapitalismus
in die Wüsten des Irak bringen kann... dass er den Chinesen ihr
Bedürfnis, die USA mit billigen Waren zu überschwemmen, ausreden
kann... und dass er dem amerikanischen Konsumenten, der derzeit so
verschuldet wie noch nie ist, durch die notwendigen"Stimulierungen"
dazu bringen kann, seinen Teil in der großen Erholung des Jahres 2003
zu spielen. Hm,... und das alles will er am liebsten an einem
einzigen Tag erreichen.

Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher, dass Snow seinen Job behalten wird,
solange er diese Dinge weiterhin öffentlich sagen wird. Aber jetzt
zurück zur Realität: Die Mars-Pläne sind immerhin plausibler als die
Schätzungen von Snow zum US-Arbeitsmarkt. Er hatte für Dezember
200.000 neue Jobs erwartet - und es wurden dann nur magere 1.000 neue
Jobs! Im gesamten vierten Quartal waren es 144.000 neue Jobs."Die
schlechten Arbeitsmarktzahlen führen zu der Frage, wie lange die
'außergewöhnlich starke' Arbeitsproduktivitäts-Geschichte noch
weitergehen kann", schrieb Chuck Butler von der Everbank gestern."Wie
lange noch", das ist ein vertrauter Ausdruck geworden. Ich stelle
diese Frage in den letzten Tagen ziemlich oft.

Wie lange kann es zum Beispiel noch so weitergehen, dass sich die
US-Konsumenten so stark verschulden? Nun, mein Freund John Mauldin hat
eine nicht gerade erfreuliche Vermutung:"Die kurzfristigen Schulden
der Konsumenten... erreichen einen historischen Wendepunkt. Sie sind
seit 10 Jahren unnormal schnell gestiegen, und die Schulden können
nicht unbegrenzt steigen. Ob sich das Wachstum bei den neuen Schulden
verlangsamen wird, ist nicht mehr die Frage... denn es muss sich
verlangsamen."

Überraschung: Dieses Zitat ist aus der März 1956-Ausgabe des
Fortune-Magazins. Es gab andere Quellen, die Ähnliches meinten, und
sie lagen offensichtlich alle falsch."Wie lange?" fragt Mauldin."Ich
schätze, dass der Tag der Abrechnung nicht in diesem Jahr stattfinden
wird... auf den Kreditkarten ist noch Platz." Vielleicht ist es gar
keine schlechte Idee, sich Plätze für das nächste Shuttle zum Mars zu
buchen.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Dienstag, 13. Januar 2004

China und Leserbriefe

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

*** Wenn es ein Land mit vielen Arbeitskräften gibt, dann China:
"Anderen asiatischen Ländern gingen die Arbeitskräfte aus, als sie
sich entwickelten und als die zunehmend verfeinerte Produktion
zunehmend teure Arbeit erforderte", schreibt Gary Shilling.

"Bei China war das nicht der Fall. Fast die Hälfte der 320 Millionen
Bauern würde man zur Bearbeitung des Landes nicht brauchen. Dann gibt
es noch 80 Millionen überschüssige Arbeiter, die bei Staat und
Staatsbetrieben angestellt sind. Ganz zu schweigen von den 100
Millionen Arbeitswilligen, die an Chinas Küste nach Arbeit suchen.
Bald werden jede Menge hinzukommen - denn ein Viertel der chinesischen
Bevölkerung ist jünger als 15 Jahre. Deshalb hat China ein Potenzial
von 500 Millionen neuen Arbeitskräften."

"Wie lange kann China weiterhin mit 8 % wachsen, bevor das Reservoir
an Arbeitskräften aufgebraucht ist? Wenn man ein jährliches
Produktivitätswachstum von 4 % unterstellt und das Wirtschaftswachstum
bei konstant 8 % annimmt, dann würde es 30 Jahre dauern. Aber man
sollte auch bedenken, dass Japan in den 1980ern genauso wie jetzt
zunehmend China bewundert wurde. Auch China hat Probleme. Zunächst
einmal die Exporte. Die Exporte waren zwischen 1997 und 2001 für 21 %
des BIP verantwortlich - aber für 48 % des Wirtschaftswachstums. Und
die meisten dieser Exporte gehen direkt oder indirekt in die USA. Und
wenn die Amerikaner ihre Konsumorgie beenden... dann ist der Ausblick
für chinesische Exporte nicht gerade gut..."

*** Ein paar Leser-Emails haben mir geschmeichelt:"Ich bin ein
aktiver Leser des Investor's Daily", beginnt sie."Immer wenn mir die
Aufwärtsbewegung am Aktienmarkt zu gut gefällt und ich zu gierig
werde, dann ist eine Dosis Ihrer Artikel eine gute Möglichkeit, um
wieder etwas Realität ins Bild zu bringen. Ich bin ein täglicher
Leser, und Ihre Ansicht zur aktuellen Situation und zu den
Konsequenzen, die Sie für die Zukunft voraussehen, sind mir ziemlich
klar."

"Anstatt dass Sie jeden Tag die gleiche Story wiederholen, möchte ich
Sie bitten, dass Sie gelegentlich eine konstruktive
Investmentstrategie präsentieren, die mir, einem naiven Investor,
helfen könnte, die Wahrscheinlichkeit meines wirtschaftlichen
Überlebens zu erhöhen (wenn Ihre Prophezeiungen wahr werden)."

***"Ja! Ihre Kritik ist richtig!" schreibt ein anderer Leser.
"Natürlich hätte man jede Menge Geld verdienen können, wenn man auf
die absolut schlechtesten Aktien des Marktes gesetzt hätte! Natürlich
haben Sie den Lesern empfohlen, Gold zu kaufen, und wenn man auf Sie
gehört hätte, dann hätte man das schon im März 2000 getan und wäre
damit sehr gut gefahren. Mit den Müllaktien wäre man schlecht
gefahren, die letzten 10 Monate sind eine andere Geschichte. Ihr vom
Investor's Daily seid das, was Ihr sagt, das Ihr seid: Ein gut
geführter, leicht zu lesender Newsletter, der nichts kostet."

"Ihre Ansichten sind das kraftvollste Gegenmittel zu dem debilen
Positivismus, den wir von der breiten Finanzpresse erhalten.
Derjenige, der will, dass sie positiver schreiben sollten, der sollte
sich mal umsehen und die Welt, in der er lebt, genau ansehen. Für mich
besteht Ihre Rolle darin, Licht auf die intellektuelle Korruption und
den Egoismus zu werfen. Bitte behalten Sie Ihre gute Arbeit bei. Sie
sind eine wirkliche Rarität."

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Dienstag, 13. Januar 2004

Der degenerierte amerikanische Kapitalismus

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Ich habe eine weitere schwarze Stelle in der Fabrik des modernen,
degenerierten amerikanischen Kapitalismus gefunden. Die
Unternehmensmanager haben keine Loyalität, weder ihren Aktionären noch
ihren Arbeitern gegenüber. Sie bezahlen sich selbst äußerst
großzügig... sie setzen bei ihren eigenen Aktien auf fallenden
Kurse... und sie behandeln die Angestellten wie Inventar. Die Idee
scheint zu sein, dass man bei allem Kosten sparen muss - außer bei
sich selbst. Die Idee dieser Manager ist es, die billigst möglichen
Arbeitskräfte einzustellen, und zwar nur genau dann, wenn sie
notwendig sind, um kurzfristige Ziele erreichen zu können.

Im Lager wird nichts mehr gehalten. Kein überschüssiges Essen im
Kühlschrank. Keine überschüssigen Produkte in den Regalen. Kein
überschüssiges Geld auf dem Konto, kein überschüssiger Angestellter
auf der Lohnliste. Die Amerikaner leben von der Hand in den Mund...
von Lohncheck zu Lohncheck... als ob niemals etwas schief laufen
würde.

"NIEMAND macht langfristige Investments", schreibt der Fondsmanager
Hirschel Abelson, nachdem er ein Dutzend Gesellschaften, in die sein
Fonds investiert, genau unter die Lupe genommen hat. Diese
Gesellschaften investieren weder in Maschinen noch in Leute. Natürlich
ist das kein Weg, um eine Wirtschaft nach vorne zu bringen oder die
Leute reich zu machen. Wenn ein Amerikaner in der modernen,
globalisierten Welt weiterhin 10 Mal soviel wie ein Inder verdienen
will, dann muss er auch 10 Mal soviel produzieren. Was wiederum
bedeutet, dass die Gesellschaft, in der er lebt, massive Geldbeträge
in neue Ausrüstungsgegenstände und in Ausbildung investieren muss.
Stattdessen scheint sich die"Amerika AG" nur um Kostensenkungen und
um die nächsten Quartalszahlen zu kümmern... und um ihre eigenen
Aktienoptionspläne.

Dieser Ansatz ist nicht nur halsbrecherisch... er ist auch
hoffnungslos.

"... Wir sind an dem Punkt angelangt, wo die Spitze der Effizienz
bereits erreicht ist, und weitere Quellen für Kostensenkungen kann man
immer schwerer erkennen", so Abelson weiter.

Schließlich haben die Manager keine Kosten mehr, die sie senken
könnten. Was dann?

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