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Ivanov Says Russia May Pull Out of Arms Treaty
By Greg Walters
Special to The Moscow Times
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/02/10/014.html

Russia may abandon a security treaty limiting conventional weapons and troop deployments in Europe, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said at an international security conference in Munich on Monday, unless it is changed to rule out NATO forces in the Baltic states.

Ivanov protested that the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, negotiated in the 1980s between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Warsaw Pact, does not include Baltic countries, which are scheduled to become NATO members in April.


"With NATO enlargement, they start operating in the zone of vitally important interests of our country," Ivanov said, The Associated Press reported."They should -- in deed, not only in words -- take into account Russian concerns."

Ivanov's comments come as the United States is considering a wide-ranging reorganization of its forces based in Europe.

Talks between Russia and NATO have broken down in recent years over an updated version of the CFE, which reworked the treaty to take the collapse of the Soviet Union into account.

Europe and the United States have protested Russia's reluctance to withdraw troops from Georgia and Moldova, despite commitments made by Moscow when the treaty was updated in 1999.

Since then, Russia has repeatedly delayed ratification of the new version of the treaty. On Monday, Ivanov said the CFE could become a relic of the Cold War.

Speaking at the conference, U.S. Senator John McCain said,"Undemocratic behavior and threats to the sovereignty and liberty of her neighbors will not profit Russia -- but will exclude her from the company of Western democracies," The New York Times reported.

Independent military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said Monday that despite Ivanov's rhetoric, Russia is not likely to unilaterally pull out of the treaty."This will not bring Russia any kind of gain," he said."There's no real need for withdrawal, just to make some noise."

But in its current form, the treaty appears to be unworkable, Felgenhauer said.

"Russia is clamoring for ratification of the treaty to happen, and the Baltic states to be included," he said."But the West says Russia must first withdraw from Georgia and Moldova."

The Baltic countries' exclusion from the CFE means that, in theory, NATO could mass any amount of troops and weaponry there when those countries join the alliance.

But Felgenhauer said such an action would be highly unlikely. Both NATO and Russia maintain forces well below the treaty's limits.

On Monday, Lithuanian Defense Minister Linas Linkevicius told The Associated Press that there are no"concrete plans" to set up NATO bases in Lithuania, but also said,"It's not excluded in the future."