-->Das Thema der sinkenden Ã-lförderung (NICHT: schlagartiges Versiegen!) sickert so langsam sogar in die Systempresse ein:


February 24, 2004
Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields
By JEFF GERTH

When visitors tour the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's oil empire — a sleek glass building rising from the desert in Dhahran near the Persian Gulf — they are reminded of its mission in a film projected on a giant screen."We supply what the world demands every day," it declares.

For decades, that has largely been true. Ever since its rich reserves were discovered more than a half-century ago, Saudi Arabia has pumped the oil needed to keep pace with rising needs, becoming the mainstay of the global energy markets.

But the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years.

Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after. Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply.

Outsiders have not had access to detailed production data from Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, for more than 20 years. But interviews in recent months with experts on Saudi oil fields provided a rare look inside the business and suggested looming problems.

An internal Saudi Aramco plan, the experts said, estimates total production capacity in 2011 at 10.15 million barrels a day, about the current capacity. But to meet expected world demand, the United States Department of Energy's research arm says Saudi Arabia will need to produce 13.6 million barrels a day by 2010 and 19.5 million barrels a day by 2020.

"In the past, the world has counted on Saudi Arabia," one senior Saudi oil executive said."Now I don't see how long it can be maintained."

Saudi Arabia, the leading exporter for three decades, is not running out of oil. Industry officials are finding, however, that it is becoming more difficult or expensive to extract it. Today, the country produces about eight million barrels a day, roughly one-tenth of the world's needs. It is the top foreign supplier to the United States, the world's leading energy consumer.

Fears of a future energy gap could, of course, turn out to be unfounded. Predictions of oil market behavior have often proved wrong.
[Da spricht die New York Times, die Systempresse]
But if Saudi production falls short, industry experts say the consequences could be significant. Other large producers, like Russia and Iraq, do not have Saudi Aramco's huge reserves or excess oil capacity to export, and promising new fields elsewhere are not expected to deliver enough oil to make up the difference.

As a result, supplies could tighten and oil prices could increase. The global economy could feel the ripples; previous spikes in oil prices have helped cause recessions, though high oil prices in the last year or so have not slowed strong growth.

Saudi Aramco says its dominance in world oil markets will grow because,"if required," it can expand its capacity to 12 million barrels a day or more by"making necessary investments," according to written responses to questions submitted by The New York Times.

But some experts are skeptical. Edward O. Price Jr., a former top Saudi Aramco and Chevron executive and a leading United States government adviser, says he believes that Saudi Arabia can pump up to 12 million barrels a day"for a few years." But"the world should not expect more from the Saudis," he said. He expects global oil markets to be in short supply by 2015.

Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency, said the Saudis would not be able to increase production enough for future needs without large-scale foreign investment.

The I.E.A., an independent agency founded by energy-consuming nations, and Washington see investment in energy exploration and field maintenance as vital, but such proposals face strong opposition inside Saudi Arabia. Tensions with the West, particularly the United States, make such investment politically difficult for Saudi society. For example, an effort by Crown Prince Abdullah, the kingdom's de facto ruler, to encourage Western companies to invest $25 billion in his country's natural gas industry essentially collapsed last year.

"Access to Persian Gulf oil reserves, especially Saudi Arabia's, is the key question for the whole world," Dr. Birol said.

President Bush has said he wants to make the United States less reliant on oil-producing countries that"don't like America" by diversifying suppliers and financing research into hydrogen fuel cells, but achieving that remains far off.

His administration backs foreign investment initiatives in the gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, and his energy policies rely on Energy Department projections showing the world even more dependent on Arabian oil in 20 years. That may be enough time for governments to find alternatives, but oil field development requires years of planning and work.

Publicly, Saudi oil executives express optimism about the future of their industry. Some economists are equally optimistic that if oil prices rise high enough, advanced recovery techniques will be applied, averting supply problems.

But privately, some Saudi oil officials are less sanguine.

"We don't see us as the ones making sure the oil is there for the rest of the world," one senior executive said in an interview. A Saudi Aramco official cautioned that even the attempt to get up to 12 million barrels a day would"wreak havoc within a decade," by causing damage to the oil fields.

In an unusual public statement, Sadad al-Husseini, Saudi Aramco's second-ranking executive and its leading geologist, warned at an oil conference in Jakarta in 2002 that global "natural declines in existing capacity are real and must be replaced."

Dr. al-Husseini, one Western oil expert said, has been"the brains of Saudi Aramco's exploration and production." But he has told associates that he plans to resign soon, and his departure, government oil experts in the United States and Saudi Arabia say, could hinder Saudi efforts to bolster production or entice foreign investment.

Saudi Arabia's reported proven reserves, more than 250 billion barrels, are one-fourth of the world's total. The most significant is Ghawar. Discovered in 1948, the 300-mile-long sliver near the Persian Gulf is the world's largest oil field and accounts for more than half of the kingdom's production.
[Man lese diesen Absatz bitte zweimal, dieses Feld stellt ein 1/15 der weltweiten Produktion dar!]

The company told The New York Times that its field production practices, including those at Ghawar, were"at optimum levels" and the risk of steep declines was negligible. <But Mr. Price, the former vice president for exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, says that North Ghawar, the most valuable section of the field, was pushed too hard in the past.

"Instead of spreading the production to other fields or areas," Mr. Price said, the Saudis concentrated on North Ghawar. That"accelerated the depletion rate and the time to uncontrolled decline," or the point where the field's production drops dramatically, he said.

In Saudi Arabia, seawater is injected into the giant fields to help move the oil toward the top of the reservoir. But over time, the volume of water that is lifted along with the oil increases, and the volume of oil declines proportionally. Eventually, it becomes uneconomical to extract the oil. There is also a risk that the field can become unstable and collapse.
[Aha, ein 1/15 der weltweiten Produktion könnte also demnächst mal einfach so ausfallen!]

Ghawar is still far too productive to abandon. But because of increasing problems with managing the water, one Saudi oil executive said,"Ghawar is becoming very costly to maintain."

The average decline rate in Saudi Aramco's mature fields — Ghawar and a few others —"is in the range of 8 percent per year," without additional remediation, according to the company's statement. This means several hundred thousand barrels of daily oil production would have to be added every year just to make up for the diminished output.

Every oil field is unique, and experts cannot predict how long each might last. For its part, Saudi Aramco is counting on Ghawar for years to come.

The company projects that Ghawar will continue to produce more than half its oil. One internal company estimate from 2002 puts Ghawar's production at 5.25 million barrels a day in 2011, more than half the total expected crude oil capacity of 10.15 million, according to United States government officials and oil executives.

"The big risk in Saudi Arabia is that Ghawar's rate of decline increases to an alarming point," said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official with the National Iranian Oil Company."That will set bells ringing all over the oil world because Ghawar underpins Saudi output and Saudi undergirds worldwide production."

The I.E.A. warned in November that huge investments would be needed to offset the decline rates in mature Middle Eastern oil fields — it put the average at 5 percent — and the increasing costs of oil and gas production. The agency, based in Paris, forecasts that Saudi production will need to reach 20 million barrels a day by 2020. (I.E.A. and other research estimates say that more than 90 percent of that would be crude oil; the rest would be liquid products like natural gas liquids that result from the processing of crude oil.)

In his speech in Jakarta, Dr. al-Husseini noted the need for exploration, pointing out that colleagues at Exxon Mobil predict that more than 50 percent of oil and gas consumption in 2010 must come from new fields and reservoirs.

[Wenn man aber weiss, daß für 6 geförderte Barrel Ã-l im Moment nur noch 1 Barrel neu entdeckt wird...]

Harry A. Longwell, the executive vice president of Exxon Mobil, says finding new sources of oil is crucial. Mr. Longwell, in an interview, said that increasing demand and declining production were not new problems, but they were"much larger now because of the world's demand for energy and the magnitude of the numbers now are much larger."

To offset its declines, Saudi Aramco is bringing back into production one idle field, Qatif, and is enhancing production at a nearby offshore field, Abu Safah. The company says that with expert management, these fields will produce about 800,000 barrels a day.

But current and former Saudi Aramco executives question those expectations, contending that the goal of 500,000 barrels a day for Qatif is unrealistic and that development costs are higher than anticipated.

Qatif poses real difficulties. It is near housing for Saudi Arabia's minority Shiite population and contains high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide, a highly toxic gas. Its development is"particularly challenging," according to a technical paper by Saudi Aramco engineers presented last year in Bahrain, which said that 45 percent of potential drilling sites"were rejected due to safety concerns."

At Abu Safah, Saudi Aramco has experienced increasing water problems as it has turned to submersible pumps to extract oil. Experts, including American and Saudi government officials, say the technique is ill advised. Saudi Aramco, in its written response to questions, defended the use of the pumps at Abu Safah and its ability to manage the water after 37 years of production.

One United States government energy expert noted that"submersible pumps is what the Soviets went to on an indiscriminate basis in West Siberia and it went south." Samotlor, a huge field in Siberia, once produced more than three million barrels a day, but it declined sharply in the 1980's after the Soviets pushed it too hard. Today it produces only a few hundred thousand barrels a day.


Ist vielleicht der Grund dafür, daß <a href ="http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/254007.htm"> die Saudis trotz vermutlich hohem Druck der USA in der letzten OPEC_Versammlung sich nicht auf eine Erhöhung der Förderquote einigen konnten</a>, der, daß <a href ="http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/252352.htm">die Saudis mit ihren Zaphhähnen schon am Anschlag fördern</a>?

Zum Thema Peak-Oil allgemein siehe auch meinen <a href ="http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/246729.htm">Beitrag vom 11.1.04</a>
<ul> ~ Quelle des obigen Artikels: New York Times</ul>

-->Zur sinkenden Förderung von Erdgas in den USA und die Folgen der (immer noch relativ moderat) gestiegenen Ã-lpreisen habe ich noch folgende Artikel gefunden:







New York (Reuters) - Der ungewöhnlich kalte Winter in den USA hat die Strom- und Ergasnachfrage in der weltgrößten Volkswirtschaft im Januar stark angekurbelt und damit die gesamte Industrieproduktion nach oben geschraubt.

Wie die US-Notenbank (Fed) am Dienstag mitteilte, stieg die Gesamterzeugung der Fabriken, Bergwerke und Energieversorger in den USA zu Jahresbeginn um 0,8 Prozent nach einem unveränderten Niveau im Dezember. Der Zuwachs zum Vormonat entsprach exakt den durchschnittlichen Erwartungen von Analysten und war der stärkste seit November. Der größte Teil des Anstiegs entfiel auf die Energieerzeuger, die angesichts der niedrigen Temperaturen einen Produktionszuwachs von 5,2 Prozent verzeichneten. Die Erdgas-Nachfrage stieg um 7,0 Prozent.

Quelle: <a href ="http://www.reuters.de/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=economicsNews&storyID=460081&section=news">Reuters </a>








Währenddessen ist die Angebotsseite zurückgegangen (selbst Greenspan hatte letzten Sommer ja bereits davor gewarnt)







Der Verbrauch von Rohöl in den USA hat 2003 bei durchschnittlich 20,045 Millionen Barrel am Tag gelegen und damit einen neuen Rekord erreicht, berichtet die staatliche Energy Information Adminstration (EIA) in einer revidierten Schätzung. 2002 soll der Verbrauch noch 19,761 Millionen Barrel betragen haben.

Rohöl in New York (WTI) dürfte sich in überschaubarer Zukunft zwischen 30 und 36 $ je Barrel bewegen, sagt Refco voraus.

Die Erdgasproduktion in den USA ist im vierten Quartal 2003 gegenüber dem gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum um 6,2 % gesunken, berichtet Raymond James.
Quelle: Taurosweb.de

Also beim Erdgas ist die Produktion ist um 6,2% zurückgegangen, der Verbrauch um 7% gesteigen und die Lager werden immer leerer, die Infrastruktur für Importe von Flüssiggas braucht für ihren Bau noch so einige Jahre und 25% des Energiebedarfs in den USA wird über Gas gedeckt.. noch Fragen?

Wie das dann jetzt schon ausschaut, siehe den folgenden Bericht:


Heating bills may precede record summer gasoline prices
By BARBARA HAGENBAUGH and CHUCK MARTIN
USA TODAY and Staff Writer

Homeowners across the USA are seeing huge jumps in their heating bills this winter from a year ago. And if they weren't already feeling the pinch, gasoline prices are on line to beat last year's prices.

Tight supplies, cold weather and high oil costs are keeping prices elevated for most heating methods. But while there are only about six weeks left in winter, there is little relief in sight for high energy costs.

This summer, gasoline prices also are expected to increase. The average price at the pump last month hit the highest on record for the month of January at $1.62. Prices likely will continue to be elevated through spring and maybe into summer.

Higher prices, possible shortages

Last summer, gasoline prices hit $1.75 around Labor Day, and there's no sign that motorists will see a decrease this summer, said Mark Baxter, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University.

"It could be 10 percent higher," Baxter said.

Stephen Brown, director of energy economics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says he expects gasoline prices will rise through the spring, then fall as oil prices moderate. But Brown, along with other analysts, warns there could be regional gasoline shortages and price spikes as a patchwork of regulations about gasoline mixes makes it impossible to simply ship gasoline from area to area when supplies in one region are short.

"It could get pretty ugly," says Bill O'Grady, director of futures research at A.G. Edwards. He notes prices likely will vary greatly by region."It is probably going to be bad. We just don't know how bad or where."

The outlook is grim in the Midwest, where gasoline prices are currently higher than the national average, indicated Susan Stewart, media relations representative for AAA Ohio in Columbus.

"The outlook is not good. The recent OPEC announcement that they would cut production by a million barrels a day April 1 is one factor."

She cited three others factors hurting prices. Two of those are fires which occurred Feb. 1, affecting gasoline production at refineries in Indiana and Illinois, one owned by BP, the other by Conoco/Phillips. The third was the announcement by the Marathon/Ashland refinery at Catlett, Ky., that the company cut production by 17 percent in the first quarter.

"These three things have combined to cause prices in the Midwest to be higher than the national average, Stewart said.

The trucking industry is directly affected by higher fuel prices. Pat Hennessey, president of Putnam Direct, said they buy little fuel themselves these days because they contract with owner-operators, who buy their own fuel. However, they add a fuel surcharge to customer bills, which is passed on to the drivers. That charge is based on a national average of fuel prices.

Diesel fuel prices are lower than they were in February last year, Hennessey said. The average was at about $1.57 this week, while last year in February it spiked at $1.80 per gallon.

He expects prices to level off, but"I'll believe it when I see it," he said.

The outlook going into spring and summer is not good, Stewart said. California is often a gauge of what will happen nationwide, and prices there are 10 cents a gallon higher than they were a year ago.

She said it is difficult to predict what prices will be like this summer, but she said,"It's not looking good."

Cutting costs at home

Higher gasoline prices won't help people like Chris and Diana Muzzo, who already are fighting high heating bills. They put new energy-efficient windows into their Cincinnati condo before winter but still saw their monthly natural gas bill soar to $230 in January - the first time the bill topped $200 since Chris moved in more than three years ago. [Und das in den USA, uih!]

"I shudder to think what the bill would have been without the new windows," lawyer Chris, 31, said.

Homeowners looking for ways to reduce heating bills has not resulted in a surge in sales of energy-efficient windows or insulation, said Don Sowers, retail sales manager and buyer for Ray Thomas Lunbertown at Dillon Falls. Instead, he said the last several years have shown a steady trend of buyers seeking insulated, rather than single-pane windows.

"Customers are aware of the energy issue," he said. Most of the windows they sell these days are insulated, as are doors.

Homeowners also are adding insulation to homes, and Thomas sells a couple kinds of blow-in insulation for attics and walls, and even provides the machine for customers to use.

Jenny Lawhorn Sammis and Scott Sammis of Richmond, Va., have turned down their thermostat since receiving a natural gas bill in January for $559.35, up 43 percent from last year.

"I was flummoxed," says Jenny, 34, who works in public relations at National Public Radio."I never would have thought I would have a bill for more than $500."

Data out last week confirms it's not just a problem for users of natural gas, which is used to heat more than half of U.S. homes. Retail heating oil prices rose to $1.63 a gallon last week, up 6 percent from a year ago. Nearly one-tenth of U.S. homes are heated with heating oil.

The increased costs may make it tough for some homeowners to pay their heating bills. National Fuel Funds Network Executive Director George Coling says his organization, which works to help low-income people with their heating bills, has seen an increase in inquiries this winter.


<ul> ~ Quelle</ul>